2013-06-20T01:11:34Z http://repub.eur.nl/oai

oai:repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16015 2012-11-14T12:33:37Z org:1 org:9745 col:2 access:open type:workingPaper set:neeo

urn:NBN:nl:ui:15-1765/16015 2012-11-14T12:33:37 mods http://hdl.handle.net/1765/16015 hdl:1765/16015 urn:NBN:nl:ui:15-1765/16015 A Viral Branching Model for Predicting the Spread of Electronic Word-of-Mouth text workingPaper http://hdl.handle.net/1765/16015 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16015/ERS-2009-029-MKT.pdf application/pdf Filesize: 958 KB born digital In a viral marketing campaign an organization develops a marketing message, and stimulates customers to forward this message to their contacts. Despite its increasing popularity, there are no models yet that help marketers to predict how many customers a viral marketing campaign will reach, and how marketers can influence this process through marketing activities. This paper develops such a model using the theory of branching processes. The proposed Viral Branching Model allows customers to participate in a viral marketing campaign by 1) opening a seeding email from the organization, 2) opening a viral email from a friend, and 3) responding to other marketing activities such as banners and offline advertising. The model parameters are estimated using individual-level data that become available in large quantities already in the early stages of viral marketing campaigns. The Viral Branching Model is applied to an actual viral marketing campaign in which over 200,000 customers participated during a six-week period. The results show that the model quickly predicts the actual reach of the campaign. In addition, the model proves to be a valuable tool to evaluate alternative what-if scenarios. Lans, R.J.A. van der Lans, van der Ralf aut Bruggen, G.H. van Bruggen, van Gerrit aut Eliashberg, J. Eliashberg Jehoshua aut Wierenga, B. Wierenga Berend aut 296075876 322978602 113541805 074548662 Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM) Supporting host sht en English ERIM report series research in management Erasmus Research Institute of Management 1566-5283 ERIM Report Series Research in Management http://repub.eur.nl/res/col/2 ERS-2009-029-MKT Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), Erasmus University Rotterdam (ERIM is the joint researchinstitute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam) 2009-05-15 M C44 M31 M30 Markov processes branching processes forecasting online marketing viral marketing word of mouth Erasmus University Rotterdam oai:repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16015 IR OAIPMH feed (http://repub.eur.nl/oai) 2009-06-04T10:46:24Z 2011-07-06T14:10:24Z http://purl.org/eprint/accessRights/OpenAccess