Elsevier

Marine Policy

Volume 31, Issue 4, July 2007, Pages 550-563
Marine Policy

Econometric analysis on the effect of port state control inspections on the probability of casualty: Can targeting of substandard ships for inspections be improved?

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2006.11.004Get rights and content

Abstract

This article is based on 183,819 port state control inspections from various port state control regimes and casualties from three different data sources for a time period of 6 years. It is the first time an analysis on a combined dataset of this magnitude has been performed. Binary logistic regression is used to measure the effect of inspections on the probability of casualty, which can be measured for very serious casualties but not for serious or less serious casualties. In addition, the magnitude of improvement areas for targeting substandard vessels is determined and the models further show how targeting of substandard ships on a combined dataset can be improved. In addition, the analysis also compares the fishing fleet with the commercial fleet.

Introduction

The maritime industry is characterized by an extensive legal framework with limited legal enforcement possibilities in case of non-compliance. This creates loopholes and distortion to competition due to the existence of a market of substandard ships. Flag states are to be seen as the first line of defense in eliminating sub-standard vessels followed by the second line of defense, the port states. The lack of trust in the industry has further created an increased amount of industry driven inspections for certain ship types. This article looks into the effect of inspections (either port state control or industry inspections) on the probability of casualty, determines the magnitude of improvement possibilities for port state control and gives recommendation on how to improve targeting on substandard ships.

Section snippets

Overview of datasets and classification of casualties

Three datasets have been used for the analysis and their relation can be seen in Fig. 1. Set A consists of the inspection database of 183,819 inspections from various Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) for the time period January 1999–December 2004 where the time period is not fully covered by all regimes. This total dataset is a combination of six individual inspection datasets (Paris MoU, United States Coast Guard, Caribbean MoU, Indian Ocean MoU, Viña del Mar Agreement on PSC and the

Model explanation and variables used

Binary logistic regression is used to provide the estimated probability (P) of a ship having a casualty. The dependent variable (y) in this case is “casualty” or “no casualty”. The binary logistic model in its end result provides the necessary coefficients (β) in order to compute the “estimated probabilities of casualty (per seriousness)” given a certain combination of dependent variables (X) which can be classification society, flag state, port state, deficiency code and ship owner.

In binary

Visualization of results: effect of inspections on the probability of casualty

Due to the lack of cooperation of some of the port state control regimes, a portion of vessels that are only inspected in these regions (Tokyo MoU, Black Sea MoU and Mediterranean MoU) is missing from the dataset. The results would have been refined by incorporating this data but will be left as a recommendation for future research.

Table 7 gives a short summary of some of the results of the variables of interest with their respective coefficients and significance across the casualty types. The

The magnitude of improvement possibilities for port state control

Fig. 3 gives on overview of the magnitude of improvement possibilities for targeting vessels. The figure is only based on ships that are relevant for port state control (excluding the fishing fleet >400 gt) and is a summary of the total time frame (1999–2004). The graph shows several groups out of which group 1 of about 36% of the vessels eligible for inspections are identified not to have been problematic over the time period and have also not been targeted by the regimes in question. About 7%

Conclusions and recommendations

Improvement for port state control has been identified in the area of targeting and possibly the inspections itself. About 36% of the vessels eligible for inspections are identified not to have been problematic over the time period in question and have also not been targeted by the regimes in question. About 7% of the vessels eligible for port state control have been targeted over the time frame but did not have a casualty and also no deficiencies and therefore represent a group of

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to acknowledge the following port state control regimes for providing their inspection data: Paris Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), Caribbean MoU, Viña del Mar Agreement on PSC, United States Coast Guard (USCG), Indian Ocean MoU and the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA). In addition, the authors would like to thank the data providers for the casualty data which were the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Lloyd's Maritime Intelligence Unit and in

References (7)

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    As per Lillie [9] and Kasoulides [10], international conventions suppress FOC behavior using the concept of “true connection,” but with no practical effect. Moreover, per Hare [11] and Knapp and Franses [12], port state control was introduced into the international shipping supervision system given the inefficient supervision of the flag state. Second, studies review the motivation, influence, and legal governance of FOC from the viewpoint of economic cost, seafarers, and ship finance.

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