Interdependence of international tourism demand and volatility in leading ASEAN destinations
International and domestic tourism are leading economic activities in the world today. Tourism has been known to generate goods and services directly and indirectly, attract foreign currency, stimulate employment, and provide opportunities for investment. It has also been recognized as an important means for achieving economic development. Substantial research has been conducted to evaluate the role of international tourism, and its associated volatility, within and across various economies. This paper applies several recently developed models of multivariate conditional volatility to investigate the interdependence of international tourism demand, as measured by international tourist arrivals, and its associated volatility in the four leading destinations in ASEAN, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. Each of these countries has attractive tourism characteristics, such as significant cultural and natural resources. Shocks to international tourism demand volatility could affect, positively or negatively, the volatility in tourism demand of neighbouring countries. The empirical results should encourage regional co-operation in tourism development among ASEAN member countries, and also mobilize international and regional organizations to provide appropriate policy actions.
|Keywords||ASEAN, economic development, interdependence, multivariate GARCH, tourism demand, volatility spillovers|
|JEL||Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions (jel C22), Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions (jel C32), International Relations and International Political Economy: General (jel F50), Asia including Middle East (jel O53)|
|Publisher||Erasmus School of Economics (ESE)|
|Series||Econometric Institute Research Papers|
|Journal||Report / Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam|
Chang, C-L, Khamkaew, T, McAleer, M.J, & Tansuchat, R. (2009). Interdependence of international tourism demand and volatility in leading ASEAN destinations (No. EI 2009-36). Report / Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam (pp. 1–36). Erasmus School of Economics (ESE). Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/17299