Investment in antiviral drugs: A real options approach
Real options analysis is a promising approach to model investment under uncertainty. We employ this approach to value stockpiling of antiviral drugs as a precautionary measure against a possible influenza pandemic. Modifications of the real options approach to include risk attitude and deviations from expected utility are presented. We show that risk aversion counteracts the tendency to delay investment for this case of precautionary investment, which is in contrast to earlier applications of risk aversion to real options analysis. Moreover, we provide a numerical example using real world data and discuss the implications of real options analysis for health policy. Suggestions for further extensions of the model and a comparison with the expected value of information analysis are put forward.
|Keywords||Antiviral drugs, Asian influenza, Decision under uncertainty, Real options analysis, Spanish influenza, antivirus agent, cost benefit analysis, decision making, drug cost, government, health care cost, health care policy, health care utilization, influenza A (H1N1), influenza A (H5N1), investment, model, mortality, oseltamivir, outcome assessment, pandemic influenza, priority journal, probability, public health, review, risk assessment, seasonal influenza, uncertainty|
|Persistent URL||dx.doi.org/10.1002/hec.1549, hdl.handle.net/1765/21269|
Attema, A.E., Lugnér, A.K., & Feenstra, T.L.. (2010). Investment in antiviral drugs: A real options approach. Health Economics, 19(10), 1240–1254. doi:10.1002/hec.1549