Why panel tests of purchasing power parity should allow for heterogeneous mean reversion
Recent studies of purchasing power parity (PPP) use panel tests that fail to take into account heterogeneity in the speed of mean reversion across real exchange rates. In contrast to several other severe restrictions of panel models and tests of PPP, the assumption of homogeneous mean reversion is still widely used and its consequences are virtually unexplored. This paper analyzes the properties of homogeneous and heterogeneous panel unit root testing methodologies. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we uncover important adverse properties of the panel approach that relies on homogeneous estimation and testing. More specifically, power functions are low and assume irregular shapes. Furthermore, homogeneous estimates of the mean reversion parameters exhibit potentially large biases. These properties can lead to misleading inferences on the validity of PPP. Our findings highlight the importance of allowing for heterogeneous estimation when testing for a unit root in panels of real exchange rates.
|Keywords||PPP, heterogeneity, panel models, panel tests, real exchange rates, unit roots tests|
|JEL||Foreign Exchange (jel F31), International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions (jel F33), Forecasting and Simulation (jel F47)|
|Persistent URL||dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2010.10.004, hdl.handle.net/1765/22283|
|Series||ERIM Top-Core Articles|
|Journal||Journal of International Money and Finance: theoretical and empirical research in international economics and finance|
Koedijk, C.G, Tims, B, & van Dijk, M.A. (2011). Why panel tests of purchasing power parity should allow for heterogeneous mean reversion. Journal of International Money and Finance: theoretical and empirical research in international economics and finance, 30(1), 246–267. doi:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2010.10.004