Objective: To prospectively evaluate prognostic factors for new onset or progression of degenerative change on follow-up MRI one year after knee trauma and the association with clinical outcome. Methods: Within a prospective observational cohort study in general practice, we studied a subgroup of 117 patients with acute knee trauma (mean age 41 years, 43% women). Degenerative change was scored on MRI at baseline and after one year follow-up. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate prognostic factors for new onset or progressive degenerative change on follow-up MRI. Association between new or progressive degeneration and clinical outcome after one year was assessed. Results: On follow-up MRI 15% of patients with pre-existing knee osteoarthritis showed progression and 26% of patients demonstrated new degenerative change. The only statistically significant prognostic variable in the multivariate analysis was bone marrow oedema on initial MRI (OR 5.29 (95% CI 1.64-17.1), p∈=∈0.005). A significant association between new or progressive degenerative change and clinical outcome was found (p∈=∈0.003). Conclusion: Bone marrow oedema on MRI for acute knee injury is strongly predictive of new onset or progression of degenerative change of the femorotibial joint on follow-up MRI one year after trauma, which is reflected in clinical outcome.

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Keywords Clinical outcome, Follow-up, Knee injury, MRI, Osteoarthritis
Persistent URL dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00330-011-2089-3, hdl.handle.net/1765/24022
Citation
Koster, I.M, Oei, E.H.G, Hensen, J.H.J, Boks, S.S, Koes, B.W, Vroegindeweij, D, … Bierma-Zeinstra, S.M. (2011). Predictive factors for new onset or progression of knee osteoarthritis one year after trauma: MRI follow-up in general practice. European Radiology: journal of the European Congress of Radiology, 21(7), 1509–1516. doi:10.1007/s00330-011-2089-3