Essays On Economic Cycles
Schumpeter’s line of thought of multiple economic cycles is further investigated. The existence of multiple cycles in economic variables is demonstrated. In basic innovations five different cycles are found. Multiple cycle structures are shown in various macro-economic variables from the United Kingdom, the United States of America and the Netherlands. It is remarkable that the lengths in years of the individual cycles are similar to the Fibonnaci sequence. This relationship has never been found before in the economy. This sequence is well known in the scientific fields of biology, physics and astronomy. It can also be observed in art, music and architecture. The existence of this relationship gives a new perspective on macro- economic relationships and economic growth. The multiple cycle approach is also applied to the Dutch economy. On the basis of a 5 and 11 year cycle present in the Dutch Gross Domestic Product (GDP) a long term forecast model is developed. At the same time a new real time indicator, also known as “nowcast indicator”, of Dutch GDP is developed. This indicator serves as a thermometer of the Dutch economy and is called the “Econometric Institute Current Indicator of the Economy” (EICIE). In contract to most other forecast models, which are much larger, this forecast model is based upon a single equation. The model is based on a single explanatory real variable, namely staffing data from Randstad Staffing Services.
|Publisher||Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM)|
|Promotor||Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (Philip Hans) , Commandeur, H.R. (Harry)|
|Sponsor||C.G. de Vries , D.J.C. van Dijk , J. Veenman|
|Keywords||Business cycles, EICIE, Fibonacci, Granger causes, Kondratieff, Real GDP, Schumpeter, VECM, cointegration, economic cycles, forecasting, harmonic Poisson regression, innovation, long waves, multiple cycles, nowcasting, staffing services|
de Groot, E.A.. (2006, May 11). Essays On Economic Cycles. Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM). Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/8216