http://repub.eur.nl/res/aut/1121/ List of Publications en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/39432/ 2013-03-15T00:00:00Z We aim to disentangle the relative contributions of (i) cognitive ability, and (ii) education on health and mortality using a structural equation model suggested by Conti et al. (2010). We extend their model by allowing for a duration dependent variable, and an ordinal educational variable. Data come from a Dutch cohort born around 1940, including detailed measures of cognitive ability and family background at age 12. The data are subsequently linked to the mortality register 1995-2011, such that we observe mortality between ages 55 and 75. The results suggest that the treatment effect of education (i.e. the effect of entering secondary school as opposed to leaving school after primary education) is positive and amounts to a 4 years gain in life expectancy, on average. Decomposition results suggest that the raw survival differences between educational groups are about equally split between a 'treatment effect' of education, and a 'selection effect' on basis of cognitive ability and family background. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/23450/ 2011-07-01T00:00:00Z The effectiveness of safety inspections of ships has been analysed from various angles, but until now, relatively little attention has been given to translate risk reduction into incident cost savings. This paper provides a monetary quantification of the cost savings that can be attributed to port state control inspections and industry vetting inspections. The dataset consists of more than half a million ship arrivals between 2002 and 2007 and contains inspections of port state authorities in the USA and Australia and of three industry vetting regimes. The effect of inspections in reducing the risk of total loss accidents is estimated by means of duration models, in terms of the gained probability of survival. The monetary benefit of port state control inspections is estimated to range, on average, from about 70 to 190 thousand dollars, with median values ranging from about 20 to 45 thousand dollars. Industry inspections have even higher benefits, especially for tankers. The savings are in general higher for older and larger vessels, and also for vessels with undefined flag and unknown classification society. As inspection costs are relatively low in comparison to potential cost savings, the results underline the importance of determining ships with relatively high risk of total loss. Highlights ► Incident cost savings due to ship inspections are quantified in monetary terms for five ship types. ► The data are a unique combination of more than half a million ship arrivals with insurance values. ► Insured values comprise hull and machinery, cargo, and third party and pollution liabilities. ► Port state control inspections save on average 70–190,000 dollars (median: 20–45,000 dollars). ► Savings are higher for older and larger vessels, and undefined flag and classification society. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/26868/ 2011-04-21T00:00:00Z The emergent transitional labour market offers new opportunities to workers, while increasing the risk of social exclusion at the same time. This article deals with exclusionary risks on the transitional labour market in the Netherlands. We try to find out whether immigrants bear higher risks than Dutch natives, possibly as a consequence of having fewer transition skills. The data used are from the Sociale Positie en Voorzieningengebruik Allochtonen (‘Social Position and Use of Public Utilities by Migrants’, SPVA) survey for the years 1998 and 2002. Since the analysis of transitions is hindered by lack of panel data, particularly on immigrants, we estimate hazard rate models that take the individuals' labour market history into account. As we do not have direct information on workers' transition skills, we use a decomposition method to control for differences in individual labour market characteristics. The main result of the analyses is that unequal risks exist, but to a different degree for various immigrant groups and with variations per transition type. Transition skills seem less important than human capital characteristics. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/23446/ 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z Global trade largely depends on maritime transport, and appropriate ships are needed to protect cargo but to minimize environmental damage and to this end, flag and port state authorities expend considerable effort in ship safety inspections. This paper investigates the safety gains of current inspection rules as well as options for further developments. The analysis is based on a dataset of over 400,000 ship arrivals covering 2002–2007, and is complemented with data on port state control and industry inspections and casualties. The results indicate considerable potential for safety gains from incorporating casualty risks more explicitly in port state control strategies to select ships for safety inspections. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/19920/ 2010-07-01T00:00:00Z Global trade depends for a large part on maritime transport, and safe ships are needed not only to protect precious cargo but also to prevent environmental damage. Flag state and port state authorities spend much effort in ship safety inspections to ensure a minimum safety level and to prevent casualties. This paper investigates the safety gains of current inspection rules as well as options for further improvement. The analysis is based on a dataset of over four hundred thousand ship arrivals originating from some important trading nations between 2002 and 2007, complemented with data on port state control and industry inspections and casualties. The results indicate considerable potential safety gains of incorporating estimated future casualty risks more explicitly in port state control strategies to select ships for safety inspection. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/19442/ 2010-05-11T00:00:00Z The effectiveness of safety inspections has been analysed from various angles, but until now, relatively little attention has been given to translate risk reduction into incident cost savings. This paper quantifies estimated cost savings based on port state control inspections and industry vetting inspections. It is based on a unique dataset of 515,194 ship arrivals and inspections from the United States of America and Australia, and inspections of three industry vetting inspection regimes, for the time period 2002 to 2007. The risk reducing effect of inspections is estimated by means of duration models, in terms of inspection gains based on the probability of survival. The results suggest average total estimated cost savings in the range of USD 74 to 192 thousand (median USD 19 to 46 thousand) owing to reduced risk of total loss due to a port state control inspection. Cost savings for industry inspections are found to be even higher, especially for tankers. The savings vary by type, age and size of the ship. The benefits of an inspection are in general larger for older and larger vessels, and also for vessels with undefined flags and unknown classification societies. As inspection costs are relatively low in comparison to potential cost savings, the results underline the importance in determining high risk ships to prevent costs due to total loss of ships. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/17016/ 2009-10-19T00:00:00Z In this empirical paper we assess how labour market transitions and out- and repeat migration of immigrants are interrelated. We estimate a multi-state multiple spell competing risks model with four states: employed, unemployed receiving benefits, out-of-the-labour market (no benefits) and abroad. We discuss one-step ahead transitions from all four states and the transition probability, including all intermediate transitions, from employment. Based on the estimated parameters we simulate the labour-migration dynamics for a synthetic cohort to derive relevant economic indicators, e.g. the probability of experiencing an unemployment spell. For the analysis we use data on recent labour immigrants to The Netherlands, which implies that all migrants are (self)-employed at the time of arrival. We find that many migrants leave the country after a period of no-income. Employment characteristics and the country of origin play an important role in explaining the dynamics. The microsimulations of synthetic cohorts reveal that many migrants experience unemployment spells, but ten years after arrival only a few are unemployed. They also indicate that the Credit Crunch will not only increase the unemployment among migrants but also departure from the country. An increase in the number of migrants from the EU accession countries will lead to more dynamics. We do not expect that the recent simplification of the entry of high income migrants will have a lasting effect, as many of those migrants leave fast. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14428/ 2009-02-01T00:00:00Z Theory predicts that dismissing the 1 and 2 euro cent coins from the denominational range of the euro facilitates payment efficiency. To examine whether this theory holds true in practice, data were collected for the Netherlands before and after September 2004, which marks the day that retail stores were allowed to round all amounts at 5 euro cents. The data consist of wallet contents for three cross sections of individuals. As the amounts of various coins in wallets are correlated, a multivariate Poisson-log Normal model is proposed to analyze these data. It is found that rounding leads to less 1 and 2 cent coins in wallets, but that still other coins are over or underrepresented, thereby suggesting that the euro range does not yet lead to fully efficient payment behavior. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14030/ 2008-07-18T00:00:00Z In this paper we analyze the demographic factors that influence the migration dynamics of recent immigrants to The Netherlands. We show how we can allow for both permanent and temporary migrants. Based on data from Statistics Netherlands we analyze both the departure and the return from abroad for recent non-Dutch immigrants to The Netherlands. Results disclose differences among migrants by migration motive and by country of origin and lend support to our analytical framework. Combining both models, for departure and returning, provides the probability that a specific migrant ends-up in The Netherlands. It also yields a framework for predicting the migration dynamics over the life-cycle. From the obtained insight in the dynamic composition of migrants in the country important policy implications can be derived, including admission procedures for different countries and/or migration motives. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16416/ 2008-05-01T00:00:00Z This paper analyzes empirically whether and if so to what extent later entrants in the European mobile telephony industry have a disadvantage vis-à-vis incumbents and early mover entrants. To analyze this question a dynamic model of market share development and a series of static models are considered. There is clear evidence of early mover advantage, mainly caused by the influence of the penetration rate: it pays to enter when still few people have acquired a mobile telephone. Another important determining factor is the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index at the moment of entry: it is significantly easier to enter a highly concentrated industry. Finally, there are important differences between countries, possibly indicating the relative strength of the national regulators. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/11890/ 2008-03-31T00:00:00Z Due to the shipping industry’s international legal framework and the existence of loopholes in the system, an estimated 5-10 percent of substandard ships exist which are more likely to have incidents with high economic cost. This article uses ship life cycles to provide insight into the effectiveness of inspections on prolonging ship lives. We account for fluctuations in the relevant economic environment and the (possible time-varying) ship particulars. We use a unique dataset containing information on the timing of accidents, inspections, ship particular changes of more than fifty thousand ships over a 29 year time period (1978-2007). The results of our duration analysis reveal that the shipping industry is a relative safe industry but there is a possible over-inspection of vessels. It also reveals the need to improve transparency related to class withdrawals and changes of classification of the vessel. Another interesting finding is that for the majority of ship types an increase in earnings decreases the incident rate. This is in contrast to the industry perception of the impact of earnings. The effect of inspections vary across ship types and the prevention of incidents with high economic costs can be improved by better coordination of inspections, data sharing and a decrease in the number of inspections . Further, more emphasis should be placed on the rectification and follow up of deficiencies. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10442/ 2007-07-02T00:00:00Z The emergence of a transitional labour market offers new opportunities to workers, but at the same time bears the risk of (new) inequalities. This paper deals with unequal chances on the transitional labour market in the Netherlands, in particular for workers from the four largest immigrant groups: Turks, Moroccans, Surinamese and Antilleans. The data used are from the SPVA, the survey `Social Position and Use of Public Utilities by Migrants' for the years 1998 and 2002. These are based on stock sampling. Since for some individuals labour market transitions occur at a very low rate, these individuals may stay in their current state till they reach the retirement age of 65. We estimate hazard rate models that account for both the stock-sampling and the possible maximum duration for the transitions from unemployment, household care and disability to employment. Then we decompose the difference in expected duration between the immigrant groups and the Dutch into the contribution of differences in observable characteristics, coefficient estimates and baseline hazard parameters. The main results of the analyses are that unequal chances exist, but to a different degree for the various groups and with variations per transition type. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10443/ 2007-07-02T00:00:00Z A duration model based on the time on Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits instead of a model based on the time till re-employment is more relevant from a cost-benefit perspective. The contribution of this paper is to extend the standard (mixed) Proportional Hazard model to account for an upper bound on the duration. We use a modified mover-stayer model to this end and discuss the interpretation of the parameters. In an empirical application we compare the method with the standard analysis of unemployment duration. We also derive the expected UI-benefit costs implied by the model for some typical unemployed individuals. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10344/ 2007-06-21T00:00:00Z In this article we propose and implement an instrumental variable estimation procedure to obtain treatment effects on duration outcomes. The method can handle the typical complications that arise with duration data of time-varying treatment and censoring. The treatment effect we define is in terms of shifting the quantiles of the outcome distribution based on the Generalized Accelerated Failure Time (GAFT) model. The GAFT model encompasses two competing approaches to duration data; the (Mixed) Proportional Hazard (MPH) model and the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model. We discuss the large sample properties of the proposed Instrumental Variable Linear Rank (IVLR), and show how we can, with one additional step, improve upon its efficiency. We discuss the empirical implementation of the estimator and apply it to the Illinois re-employment bonus experiment. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9779/ 2007-04-24T00:00:00Z In this article we focus on duration data with an endogenous variable for which an instrument is available. In duration analysis the covariates and/or the effect of the covariates may vary over time. Another complication of duration data is that they are usually heavy censored. The hazard rate is invariant to censoring. Therefore, a natural choice is to model the hazard rate instead of the mean. We develop an Instrumental Variable estimation procedure for the Generalized Accelerated Failure Time (GAFT) model. The GAFT model is a duration data model that encompasses two competing approaches to such data; the (Mixed) Proportional Hazard (MPH) model and the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model. We discuss the large sample properties of this Instrumental Variable Linear Rank (IVLR) estimation based on counting process theory. We show that choosing the right weight function in the IVLR can improve its efficiency. We discuss the implementation of the estimator and apply it to the Illinois re-employment bonus experiment. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9263/ 2007-03-21T00:00:00Z In this paper we analyze the demographic factors that influence the migration dynamics of recent immigrants to The Netherlands. We show how we can allow for both permanent and temporary migrants. Based on data from Statistics Netherlands we analyze both the departure and the return from abroad for recent non-Dutch immigrants to The Netherlands. Results disclose differences among migrants by migration motive and by country of origin and lend support to our analytical framework. Combining both models, for departure and returning, provides the probability that a specific migrant ends-up in The Netherlands. It also yields a framework for predicting the migration dynamics over the life-cycle. We can conclude that for a complete view of the migration dynamics it is important to allow for both permanent (stayers) migrants and temporary (movers) migrants and that return from abroad should not be neglected. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8013/ 2006-10-03T00:00:00Z Theory predicts that dismissing the 1 and 2 euro cent coins from the denominational range of the euro leads to more payment efficiency. To examine whether this theory holds true in practice, we collected data for the Netherlands before and after September 1 2004, which marks the day that retail stores were allowed to round all amounts at 5 euro cents. The data consist of wallet contents for three cross sections of individuals. We propose a multivariate Poisson- log Normal model to analyze these data. We find that rounding leads to less 1 and 2 cent coins in wallets, but that still other coins are over or underrepresented, thereby suggesting that the euro range does not yet lead to fully efficient payment behavior. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/13214/ 2006-10-01T00:00:00Z We put forward a statistical model for interpurchase times that incorporates all current and past information available for all purchases as time runs along the calendar time scale. It delivers forecasts for the number of purchases in the next period, as well as for the timing of subsequent and consecutive purchases. Purchase occasions are viewed as a counting process that counts the recurrent purchases for each house-hold as they evolve over time. We illustrate our model for yogurt purchases and highlight its managerial implications. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7754/ 2006-05-11T00:00:00Z An issue hardly ever mentioned in the analysis of labour market transitions is that for some individuals labour market transitions occur at a very low rate. Therefore, these individuals might stay on disability benefits or in domestic care till they reach the retirement age of 65. This implies that the duration on disability and of non-participating women has a upper bound of the time till retirement. Despite the growing availability of panel data on labour market transitions many household surveys are still based on stock based sampling. In this paper estimation of a duration model in which a positive fraction of individuals reaches a maximum duration is derived for stock sampled data. A mixed proportional hazard model with a piecewise constant baseline hazard leads to a relatively simple closed-form expression in the log likelihood. Discrete unobserved heterogeneity is assumed. Non-constant entry rates into the labour market state are allowed for by assuming a yearly fluctuating rate. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7148/ 2005-12-07T00:00:00Z In this paper we analyze the demographic factors that influence the return and repeated migration of immigrants. Using longitudinal data from Statistics Netherlands we track migration histories of recent immigrants to The Netherlands and analyze which migrants will stay in the country, which migrants are more prone to leave and how quick they leave. In order to identify these migrants we apply a mover-stayer duration model on the time spent in the country. We also analyze the return from abroad to The Netherlands of these migrants. Results disclose differences among migrants by migration motive and by country of origin and lend support to our analytical framework. Combining the model for departure from the country and the model for returning to the country provides the long-run stay probability of a specific migrant. It also yields a framework for simulating the life-cycle migration dynamics. The major findings are: (1) labor migrants and students are more prone to leave and migrants who come for family reasons remain in the country more often, (2) migrants from the `guestworker' countries, Turkey and Morocco, will stay in the country more often than migrants from Western countries. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7029/ 2005-11-07T00:00:00Z The issue of lifelong learning is high on the political agenda. However, despite this political interest and the large economic literature on human capital, the impact of work-related training on the discrepancy between function requirements and the skills of the employee has been ignored. In this paper we use an ordered probit model to analyze the perceived change in discrepancy. Based on the bi-annual OSA panel from 1998 till 2002 for The Netherlands, we show that taking a work-related course decreases the discrepancy significantly. We correct for the endogeneity between the decision to take a course and the change in discrepancy and we argue that ignoring the selective decision to take a course leads to misleading conclusions about the effect of these courses on the change in discrepancy. Some respondents of the OSA-panel drop out between two waves. To correct for the possibility of selective attrition we develop an Inverse Probability Weight (IPW) estimation method for the ordered probit with an endogenous binary regressor. From the implied marginal effects of the IPW estimation we conclude that taking a course increases the probability to change the fit between skills and function requirements from Bad to Good with 16~percent-point. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/1909/ 2005-03-09T00:00:00Z Most models for purchase timing behavior of households do not take into account that many households have regular and non-shopping days. I propose a statistical model for purchase timing that exploits information on the shopping days of households. It delivers forecasts for the number of purchases in the next period and for the timing of the first and consecutive purchases. Purchase occasions are modeled in terms of a counting process, which counts the recurrent purchases for each household as they evolve over time. I illustrate the model for yogurt and detergent purchases and highlight its useful managerial implications. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/1998/ 2005-03-01T00:00:00Z We propose a two-stage instrumental variable estimator that is consistent if there is selective compliance in the treatment group of a randomized experiment and the outcome variable is a censored duration. The estimator assumes full compliance in the control group. We use the estimator to re-analyze data from the Illinois re-employment bonus experiment. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6603/ 2004-12-22T00:00:00Z In this paper we analyze empirically whether and if so to what extent later entrants in the European mobile telephony industry have a disadvantage vis-à-vis incumbents and early mover entrants. To analyze this question we consider a series of static models and a dynamic model of market share development. We find a clear early mover advantage, mainly caused by the influence of the penetration rate: it pays to enter when still few people have acquired a mobile telephone. Another important determining factor is the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index at the moment of entry: it is significantly easier to enter a highly concentrated industry. Finally, there are important differences between countries possibly indicating the relative strength of the national regulators. For example, it turns out that it is relatively difficult to enter the mobile telephony sector and gain market share in the Scandinavian countries. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/1077/ 2003-01-01T00:00:00Z We put forward a statistical model for interpurchase times that takes into account all the current and past information available for all purchases as time continues to run along the calendar timescale. It delivers forecasts for the number of purchases in the next period and for the timing of the first and consecutive purchases. Purchase occasions are modeled in terms of a counting process, which counts the recurrent purchases for each household as they evolve over time. We show that formulating the problem as a counting process has many advantages, both theoretically and empirically. We illustrate our model for yogurt purchases and we highlight its useful managerial implications. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/1987/ 2003-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/1994/ 2003-01-01T00:00:00Z The paper investigates the relationship between job satisfaction and labour market transitions. Using a multinomial logit model, a model is estimated on the basis of individual data in which transitions are explained from individual characteristics, job characteristics, dissatisfaction with the job and discrepancies between the actual and the desired number of hours worked. Transitions can be changes in the hours worked, changes to a different job and/or employers, or combinations. Furthermore, people may lose their job and leave employment out of free will. The model has been estimated for three categories of workers according to the number of hours worked. The results show that both dissatisfaction with the job and discrepancies with respect to the hours worked have a significant impact on transition probabilities. Contrary to what is sometimes believed there is no structural increase in transition probabilities. We are still far away from a ‘transtional labour market’. The paper also shows that transitions significantly increase job satisfaction. However, despite the strong improvement in the labour market situation in the 1990s, the percentage of the workers experiencing a dscrepancy between the actual and the desired number of hours has not diminished. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/542/ 2002-10-18T00:00:00Z In this article we focus on time-to-event studies with a randomised treatment assignment that may be compromised by selective compliance. Contrary to most of the extensive literature on evaluation studies we do not consider the effect of the treatment on some average outcome but on the hazard rate. In time-to-event studies the treatment may vary over time. Another complication of duration data is that they are usually heavy censored. Censoring limits the observation period, but is not a feature of the treatment program. Therefore, a natural choice is to relate the treatment to the hazard rate. We show that even if the compliance is selective, we can still use the randomisation to estimate the impact of the program corrected for selective compliance on the hazard. The only requirement is that participation in the program is affected by a variable that is not correlated with the baseline duration. We develop an Instrumental Variable estimation procedure for the Generalized Accelerated Failure Time (GAFT) model. The GAFT model is a duration data model that encompasses two competing approaches to such data; the (Mixed) Proportional Hazard (MPH) model and the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model. We discuss the large sample properties of this Instrumental Linear Rank Estimation and show how we can improve its efficiency. The estimator is used to re-analyze the data from the Illinois unemployment bonus experiment.