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model factor forecast table method group value effect variable result inspection pcovr number survey predictor control index system forecasting error section parameter process growth voting component procedure control group company level information probability analysis intention indicator treatment state equation party matrix period regression study month sample surgeon series hospital survey effects factor models target accident vessel variance weight election 0.00 journal recession arrival stock observation 0.9 behaviour horizon watson column complexity estimate survey group difference 0.5 design choice growth rates right treatment group cargo case durations casualty