Baltussen, R.M.P.M.

Cost-Effectiveness of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) in Preventing HIV-1 Infections in Rural Zambia: A Modeling Study (Article)

2013-03-18T00:00:00Z

Background: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir and emtricitabine effectively prevents new HIV infections. The optimal scenario for implementing PrEP where most infections are averted at the lowest cost is unknown. We determined the impact of different PrEP strategies on averting new infections, prevalence, drug resistance and cost-effectiveness in Macha, a rural setting in Zambia. Methods: A deterministic mathematical model of HIV transmission was constructed using data from the Macha epidemic (antenatal prevalence 7.7%). Antiretroviral therapy is started at CD4<350 cells/mm3. We compared the number of infections averted, cost-effectiveness, and potential emergence of drug resistance of two ends of the prioritization spectrum: prioritizing PrEP to half of the most sexually active individuals (5-15% of the total population), versus randomly putting 40-60% of the total population on PrEP. Results: Prioritizing PrEP to individuals with the highest sexual activity resulted in more infections averted than a non-prioritized strategy over ten years (31% and 23% reduction in new infections respectively), and also a lower HIV prevalence after ten years (5.7%, 6.4% respectively). The strategy was very cost-effective at $323 per quality adjusted life year gained and appeared to be both less costly and more effective than the non-prioritized strategy. The prevalence of drug resistance due to PrEP was as high as 11.6% when all assumed breakthrough infections resulted in resistance, and as low as 1.3% when 10% of breakthrough infections resulted in resistance in both our prioritized and non-prioritized scenarios. Conclusions: Even in settings with low test rates and treatment retention, the use of PrEP can still be a useful strategy in averting infections. Our model has shown that PrEP is a cost-effective strategy for reducing HIV incidence, even when adherence is suboptimal and prioritization is imperfect.

Costs, effects and cost-effectiveness of breast cancer control in Ghana (Article)

2012-08-01T00:00:00Z

Objective Breast cancer control in Ghana is characterised by low awareness, late-stage treatment and poor survival. In settings with severely constrained health resources, there is a need to spend money wisely. To achieve this and to guide policy makers in their selection of interventions, this study systematically compares costs and effects of breast cancer control interventions in Ghana. Methods We used a mathematical model to estimate costs and health effects of breast cancer interventions in Ghana from the healthcare perspective. Analyses were based on the WHO-CHOICE method, with health effects expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), costs in 2009 US dollars (US$) and cost-effectiveness ratios (CERs) in US$ per DALY averted. Analyses were based on local demographic, epidemiological and economic data, to the extent these data were available. Results Biennial screening by clinical breast examination (CBE) of women aged 40-69years, in combination with treatment of all stages, seems the most cost-effective intervention (costing $1299 per DALY averted). The intervention is also economically attractive according to international standards on cost-effectiveness. Mass media awareness raising (MAR) is the second best option (costing $1364 per DALY averted). Mammography screening of women of aged 40-69years (costing $12908 per DALY averted) cannot be considered cost-effective. Conclusions Both CBE screening and MAR seem economically attractive interventions. Given the uncertainty about the effectiveness of these interventions, only their phased introduction, carefully monitored and evaluated, is warranted. Moreover, their implementation is only meaningful if the capacity of basic cancer diagnostic, referral and treatment and possibly palliative services is simultaneously improved.

Cost effectiveness of strategies to combat breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer in sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia: mathematical modelling study. (Article)

2012-04-25T00:00:00Z

To determine the costs and health effects of interventions to combat breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers in order to guide resource allocation decisions in developing countries. Two World Health Organization sub-regions of the world: countries in sub-Saharan Africa with very high adult and high child mortality (AfrE); and countries in South East Asia with high adult and high child mortality (SearD). Cost effectiveness analysis of prevention and treatment strategies for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer, using mathematical modelling based on a lifetime population model. Demographic and epidemiological data were taken from the WHO mortality and global burden of disease databases. Estimates of intervention coverage, effectiveness, and resource needs were based on clinical trials, treatment guidelines, and expert opinion. Unit costs were taken from the WHO-CHOICE price database. Cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted, expressed in international dollars ($Int) for the year 2005. In both regions certain interventions in cervical cancer control (screening through cervical smear tests or visual inspection with acetic acid in combination with treatment) and colorectal cancer control (increasing the coverage of treatment interventions) cost <$Int2000 per DALY averted and can be considered highly cost effective. In the sub-Saharan African region screening for colorectal cancer (by colonoscopy at age 50 in combination with treatment) costs $Int2000-6000 per DALY averted and can be considered cost effective. In both regions certain interventions in breast cancer control (treatment of all cancer stages in combination with mammography screening) cost $Int2000-6000 per DALY averted and can also be considered cost effective. Other interventions, such as campaigns to eat more fruit and vegetable or subsidies in colorectal cancer control, are not cost effective according to the criteria defined. Highly cost effective interventions to combat cervical and colorectal cancer are available in the African and Asian sub-regions. In cervical cancer control, these include screening through smear tests or visual inspection in combination with treatment. In colorectal cancer, increasing treatment coverage is highly cost effective (screening through colonoscopy is cost effective in the African sub-region). In breast cancer control, mammography screening in combination with treatment of all stages is cost effective.

Reducing disparities in breast cancer survival - The effect of large-scale screening of the uninsured (Article)

2011-09-01T00:00:00Z

Ageing with HIV in South Africa (Article)

2011-08-24T00:00:00Z

We used an established microsimulation model, quantified to a rural South African setting with a well developed antiretroviral treatment programme, to predict the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the HIV epidemic in the population aged over 50 years. We show that the HIV prevalence in patients aged over 50 years will nearly double in the next 30 years, whereas the fraction of HIV-infected patients aged over 50 years will triple in the same period. This ageing epidemic has important consequences for the South African healthcare system, as older HIV patients require specialized care.

The potential impact of RV144-like vaccines in rural South Africa: A study using the STDSIM microsimulation model (Article)

2011-08-18T00:00:00Z

Background: The only successful HIV vaccine trial to date is the RV144 trial of the ALVAC/AIDSVAX vaccine in Thailand, which showed an overall incidence reduction of 31%. Most cases were prevented in the first year, suggesting a rapidly waning efficacy. Here, we predict the population level impact and cost-effectiveness of practical implementation of such a vaccine in a setting of a generalised epidemic with high HIV prevalence and incidence. Methods: We used STDSIM, an established individual-based microsimulation model, tailored to a rural South African area with a well-functioning HIV treatment and care programme. We estimated the impact of a single round of mass vaccination for everybody aged 15-49, as well as 5-year and 2-year re-vaccination strategies for young adults (aged 15-29). We calculated proportion of new infections prevented, cost-effectiveness indicators, and budget impact estimates of combined ART and vaccination programmes. Results: A single round of mass vaccination with a RV144-like vaccine will have a limited impact, preventing only 9% or 5% of new infections after 10 years at 60% and 30% coverage levels, respectively. Revaccination strategies are highly cost-effective if vaccine prices can be kept below 150 US/vaccine for 2-year revaccination strategies, and below 200 US/vaccine for 5-year revaccination strategies. Net cost-savings through reduced need for HIV treatment and care occur when vaccine prices are kept below 75 US/vaccine. These results are sensitive to alternative assumptions on the underlying sexual network, background prevention interventions, and individual's propensity and consistency to participate in the vaccination campaign. Discussion: A modestly effective vaccine can be a cost-effective intervention in highly endemic settings. To predict the impact of vaccination strategies in other endemic situations, sufficient knowledge of the underlying sexual network, prevention and treatment interventions, and individual propensity and consistency to participate, is key. These issues are all best addressed in an individual-based microsimulation model.

The impact of the new who Antiretroviral treatment guidelines on HIV epidemic dynamics and cost in south africa (Article)

2011-07-26T00:00:00Z

Background: Since November 2009, WHO recommends that adults infected with HIV should initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) at CD4+ cell counts of ≤350 cells/μl rather than ≤200 cells/μl. South Africa decided to adopt this strategy for pregnant and TB co-infected patients only. We estimated the impact of fully adopting the new WHO guidelines on HIV epidemic dynamics and associated costs. Methods and Finding: We used an established model of the transmission and control of HIV in specified sexual networks and healthcare settings. We quantified the model to represent Hlabisa subdistrict, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We predicted the HIV epidemic dynamics, number on ART and program costs under the new guidelines relative to treating patients at ≤200 cells/μl for the next 30 years. During the first five years, the new WHO treatment guidelines require about 7% extra annual investments, whereas 28% more patients receive treatment. Furthermore, there will be a more profound impact on HIV incidence, leading to relatively less annual costs after seven years. The resulting cumulative net costs reach a break-even point after on average 16 years. Conclusions: Our study strengthens the WHO recommendation of starting ART at ≤350 cells/μl for all HIV-infected patients. Apart from the benefits associated with many life-years saved, a modest frontloading appears to lead to net savings within a limited time-horizon. This finding is robust to alternative assumptions and foreseeable changes in ART prices and effectiveness. Therefore, South Africa should aim at rapidly expanding its healthcare infrastructure to fully embrace the new WHO guidelines.

Criteria for priority setting of HIV/AIDS interventions in Thailand: A discrete choice experiment (Article)

2010-07-12T00:00:00Z

Background: Although a sizeable budget is available for HIV/AIDS control in Thailand, there will never be enough resources to implement every programme for all target groups at full scale. As such, there is a need to prioritize HIV/AIDS programmes. However, as of yet, there is no evidence on the criteria that should guide the priority setting of HIV/AIDS programmes in Thailand, including their relative importance. Also, it is not clear whether different stakeholders share similar preferences. Methods: Criteria for priority setting of HIV/AIDS interventions in Thailand were identified in group discussions with policy makers, people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), and community members (i.e. village health volunteers (VHVs)). On the basis of these, discrete choice experiments were designed and administered among 28 policy makers, 74 PLWHA, and 50 VHVs. Results: In order of importance, policy makers expressed a preference for interventions that are highly effective, that are preventive of nature (as compared to care and treatment), that are based on strong scientific evidence, that target high risk groups (as compared to teenagers, adults, or children), and that target both genders (rather than only men or women). PLWHA and VHVs had similar preferences but the former group expressed a strong preference for care and treatment for AIDS patients. Conclusions: The study has identified criteria for priority setting of HIV/AIDS interventions in Thailand, and revealed that different stakeholders have different preferences vis -à- vis these criteria. This could be used for a broad ranking of interventions, and as such as a basis for more detailed priority setting, taking into account also qualitative criteria.

Incorporating equity-efficiency interactions in cost-effectiveness analysis - Three approaches applied to breast cancer control (Article)

2010-07-01T00:00:00Z

Background: The past decade, medical technology assessment focused on cost-effectiveness analysis, yet there is an increasing need to consider equity implications of health interventions as well. This article addresses three equity-efficiency trade-off methods proposed in the literature. Moreover, it demonstrates their impact on cost-effectiveness analyses in current breast cancer control options for women of different age groups. Methods: We adapted an existing breast cancer model to estimate cost-effectiveness and equity effects of breast cancer interventions. We applied three methods to quantify the equity-efficiency trade-offs: 1) targeting specific groups, comparing disparities at baseline and in different intervention scenarios; 2) equity weighting, valuing low and high health gains differently; and 3) multicriteria decision analysis, weighing multiple equity and efficiency criteria. We compared the resulting composite league tables of all approaches. Results: The approaches show that a comprehensive breast cancer program, including screening, for women below 75 years of age was most attractive in both the group targeting approach and the equity weighting approach. Such control programs would reduce disparities with 56% and at 1908 per equity quality-adjusted life-year gained. In the multicriteria approach, a comprehensive treatment program for women below 75 years of age and treatment in stage III breast cancer were most attractive, with both an 82% selection probability, followed by screening programs for the two age groups. Conclusion: In the three equity weighing approaches, targeting women below 75 years of age was more cost-effective and led to more equitable distributions of health. This likely is similar in other fatal diseases with similar age distributions. The approaches may lead to different outcomes in nonfatal disease.

Balancing equity and efficiency in health priorities in Ghana: The use of multicriteria decision analysis (Article)

2008-12-01T00:00:00Z

Objectives: To guide the Ministry of Health in Ghana in the priority setting of interventions by quantifying the trade-off between equity, efficiency, and other societal concerns in health. Methods: The study applied a multicriteria decision analytical framework. A focus group of seven policymakers identified the relevant criteria for priority setting and 63 policymakers participated in a discrete choice experiment to weigh their relative importance. Regression analysis was used to rank order a set of health interventions on the basis of these criteria and associated weights. Results: Policymakers in Ghana consider targeting of vulnerable populations and cost-effectiveness as the most important criteria for priority setting of interventions, followed by severity of disease, number of beneficiaries, and diseases of the poor. This translates into a general preference for interventions in child health, reproductive health, and communicable diseases. Conclusion: Study results correspond with the overall vision of the Ministry of Health in Ghana, and are instrumental in the assessment of present and future investments in health. Multicriteria decision analysis contributes to transparency and accountability in policymaking.

Costs, health effects and cost-effectiveness of alcohol and tobacco control strategies in Estonia (Article)

2007-11-01T00:00:00Z

Objective: To assess the population-level costs, effects and cost-effectiveness of different alcohol and tobacco control strategies in Estonia. Design: A WHO cost-effectiveness modelling framework was used to estimate the total costs and effects of interventions. Costs were assessed in Estonian Kroon (EEK) for the year 2000, while effects were expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. Regional cost-effectiveness estimates for Eastern Europe, were used as baseline and were contextualised by including country-specific input data. Results: Increased excise taxes are the most cost-effective intervention to reduce both hazardous alcohol consumption and smoking: 759 EEK (€49) and 218 EEK (€14) per DALY averted, respectively. Imposing additional advertising bans would cost 1331 EEK (€85) per DALY averted to reduce hazardous alcohol consumption and 304 EEK (€19) to reduce smoking. Compared to WHO-CHOICE regional estimates, interventions were less costly and thereby more cost-effective in Estonia. Conclusions: Interventions in alcohol and tobacco control are cost-effective, and broad implementation of these interventions to upgrade current situation is warranted from the economic point of view. First priority is an increase in taxation, followed by advertising bans and other interventions. The differences between WHO-CHOICE regional cost-effectiveness estimates and contextualised results underline the importance of the country level analysis.

Priority setting using multiple criteria: Should a lung health programme be implemented in Nepal? (Article)

2007-05-01T00:00:00Z

Objectives: To identify and weigh the various criteria for priority setting, and to assess whether a recently evaluated lung health programme in Nepal should be considered a priority in that country. Methods: Through a discrete choice experiment with 66 respondents in Nepal, the relative importance of several criteria for priority setting was determined. Subsequently, a set of interventions, including the lung health programme, was rank ordered on the basis of their overall performance on those criteria. Results: Priority interventions are those that target severe diseases, many beneficiaries and people of middle-age, have large individual health benefits, lead to poverty reduction and are very cost-effective. Certain interventions in tuberculosis control rank highest. The lung health programme ranks 13th out of 34 interventions. Conclusion: This explorative analysis suggests that the lung health programme is among the priorities in Nepal when taking into account a range of relevant criteria for priority setting. The multi-criteria approach can be an important step forward to rational priority setting in developing countries. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

Priority setting of health interventions: the need for multi-criteria decision analysis. (Article)

2006-08-21T00:00:00Z

Priority setting of health interventions is often ad-hoc and resources are not used to an optimal extent. Underlying problem is that multiple criteria play a role and decisions are complex. Interventions may be chosen to maximize general population health, to reduce health inequalities of disadvantaged or vulnerable groups, ad/or to respond to life-threatening situations, all with respect to practical and budgetary constraints. This is the type of problem that policy makers are typically bad at solving rationally, unaided. They tend to use heuristic or intuitive approaches to simplify complexity, and in the process, important information is ignored. Next, policy makers may select interventions for only political motives. This indicates the need for rational and transparent approaches to priority setting. Over the past decades, a number of approaches have been developed, including evidence-based medicine, burden of disease analyses, cost-effectiveness analyses, and equity analyses. However, these approaches concentrate on single criteria only, whereas in reality, policy makers need to make choices taking into account multiple criteria simultaneously. Moreover, they do not cover all criteria that are relevant to policy makers. Therefore, the development of a multi-criteria approach to priority setting is necessary, and this has indeed recently been identified as one of the most important issues in health system research. In other scientific disciplines, multi-criteria decision analysis is well developed, has gained widespread acceptance and is routinely used. This paper presents the main principles of multi-criteria decision analysis. There are only a very few applications to guide resource allocation decisions in health. We call for a shift away from present priority setting tools in health--that tend to focus on single criteria--towards transparent and systematic approaches that take into account all relevant criteria simultaneously.

Cost effectiveness analysis of strategies for tuberculosis control in developing countries (Article)

2005-01-01T00:00:00Z

OBJECTIVE: To assess the costs and health effects of tuberculosis control interventions in Africa and South East Asia in the context of the millennium development goals. DESIGN: Cost effectiveness analysis based on an epidemiological model. SETTING: Analyses undertaken for two regions classified by WHO according to their epidemiological grouping-Afr-E, countries in sub-Saharan Africa with very high adult and high child mortality, and Sear-D, countries in South East Asia with high adult and high child mortality. DATA SOURCES: Published studies, costing databases, expert opinion. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Costs per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted in 2000 international dollars (dollarsInt). RESULTS: Treatment of new cases of smear-positive tuberculosis in DOTS programmes cost dollarsInt6-8 per DALY averted in Afr-E and dollarsInt7 per DALY averted in Sear-D at coverage levels of 50-95%. In Afr-E, adding treatment of smear-negative and extra-pulmonary cases at a coverage level of 95% cost dollarsInt95 per DALY averted; the addition of DOTS-Plus treatment for multidrug resistant cases cost dollarsInt123. In Sear-D, these costs were dollarsInt52 and dollarsInt226, respectively. The full combination of interventions could reduce prevalence and mortality by over 50% in Sear-D between 1990 and 2010, and by almost 50% between 2000 and 2010 in Afr-E. CONCLUSIONS: DOTS treatment of new smear-positive cases is the first priority in tuberculosis control, including in countries with high HIV prevalence. DOTS treatment of smear-negative and extra-pulmonary cases and DOTS-Plus treatment of multidrug resistant cases are also highly cost effective. To achieve the millennium development goal for tuberculosis control, substantial extra investment is needed to increase case finding and implement interventions on a wider scale.

Iron fortification and iron supplementation are cost-effective interventions to reduce iron deficiency in four subregions of the world (Article)

2004-01-01T00:00:00Z

Iron deficiency is the most common and widespread nutritional disorder in the world, affecting millions of people in both nonindustrialized and industrialized countries. We estimated the costs, effects, and cost-effectiveness of iron supplementation and iron fortification interventions in 4 regions of the world. The effects on population health were arrived at by using a population model designed to estimate the lifelong impact of iron supplementation or iron fortification on individuals benefiting from such interventions. The population model took into consideration effectiveness, patient adherence, and geographic coverage. Costs were based on primary data collection and on a review of the literature. At 95% geographic coverage, iron supplementation has a larger impact on population health than iron fortification. Iron supplementation would avert <12,500 disability adjusted life years (DALY) annually in the European subregion, with very low rates of adult and child mortality, to almost 2.5 million DALYs in the African and Southeast Asian subregions, with high rates of adult and child mortality. On the other hand, fortification is less costly than supplementation and appears to be more cost effective than iron supplementation, regardless of the geographic coverage of fortification. We conclude that iron fortification is economically more attractive than iron supplementation. However, spending the extra resources to implement iron supplementation is still a cost-effective option. The results should be interpreted with caution, because evidence of intervention effectiveness predominantly relates to small-scale efficacy trials, which may not reflect the actual effect under expected conditions.