http://repub.eur.nl/res/aut/1514/ List of Publications en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/21875/ 2010-12-03T00:00:00Z Background: To support the development of early warning and surveillance systems of emerging zoonoses, we present a general method to prioritize pathogens using a quantitative, stochastic multi-criteria model, parameterized for the Netherlands. Methodology/Principal Findings: A risk score was based on seven criteria, reflecting assessments of the epidemiology and impact of these pathogens on society. Criteria were weighed, based on the preferences of a panel of judges with a background in infectious disease control. Conclusions/Significance: Pathogens with the highest risk for the Netherlands included pathogens in the livestock reservoir with a high actual human disease burden (e.g. Campylobacter spp., Toxoplasma gondii, Coxiella burnetii) or a low current but higher historic burden (e.g. Mycobacterium bovis), rare zoonotic pathogens in domestic animals with severe disease manifestations in humans (e.g. BSE prion, Capnocytophaga canimorsus) as well as arthropod-borne and wildlife associated pathogens which may pose a severe risk in future (e.g. Japanese encephalitis virus and West-Nile virus). These agents are key targets for development of early warning and surveillance. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/29535/ 2008-03-01T00:00:00Z With public health policy increasingly relying on mathematical models to provide insights about the impacts of potential policy options, the demand for uncertainty and sensitivity analyses that explore the implications of different assumptions in a model continues to expand. Although analysts continue to develop methods to meet the demand, most modelers rely on a single method in the context of their assessments and presentations of results, and few analysts provide results that facilitate comparisons between uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods. Methods vary in their degree of analytical difficulty and in the nature of the information that they provide, and analysts should communicate results with a note that not all methods yield the same insights. The authors explore several sensitivity analysis methods to test whether the choice of method affects the insights and importance rankings of inputs from the analysis. They use a dynamic cost-effectiveness model of a hypothetical infectious disease as the basis to perform 1-way and multi-way sensitivity analyses, design of experiments, and Morris' method. They also compute partial derivatives as well as a number of probabilistic sensitivity measures, including correlations, regression coefficients, and the correlation ratio, to demonstrate the existing methods and to compare them. The authors find that the magnitudes and rankings of sensitivity measures depend on the selected method(s) and make recommendations regarding the choice of method depending on the complexity of the model, number of uncertain inputs, and desired types of insights from the sensitivity analysis. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14919/ 1994-08-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/2205/ 1992-01-01T00:00:00Z this paper proposes a compehensive method for the use of expert opinion for obtaining lifetime distributions required for maintenance optimization. The method includes procedures for the elicitation of discretized lifetime distributions from several experts, the combination of the elicited expert opinion into a consensus distribution, and the updating of the consensus distribution with failure and maintenance data. The method was motivated by the practical circumstances governing its implementation. In particular, by the lack of statistical training of the experts an the high demands on their time. The use of a discretized life distibution provides more flexibility, is more comprehendible by the experts in the elicitation stage, and greatly reduces the computation in the combination and updating stages. The methodology is Bayes, using the Dirichlet distribution as the prior distribution for the elicited discrete lifetime distribution. Methods are described for incorporating information concerning the expertise of the experts into the analysis. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/2207/ 1992-01-01T00:00:00Z Herein, we present an overviw of the elicitation and use of expert opinion in developing optimal maintenance policies. The procedure developed is based on restrictions found in practice. That is, where the "expert" has little statistical training and the elicitation process must be performed in a clear and quick manner. Due to these restrictions, a histogram is elicited form the expert and feedback and analysis is based on combining the elicited histogram with a fitted right tail to form a continuous distribution. Expressions for the pdf, failure rate, percentile life, and mean life are developed and used to calculate the optimal maintenance interval for given cost data