Veen, F. van der

Paroxetine reduces crying in young women watching emotional movies (Article)

2011-09-16T00:00:00Z

Rationale: Crying is a unique human emotional reaction that has not received much attention from researchers. Little is known about its underlying neurobiological mechanisms, although there is some indirect evidence suggesting the involvement of central serotonin. Objectives: We examined the acute effects of the administration of 20 mg paroxetine on the crying of young, healthy females in response to emotional movies. Methods: We applied a double-blind, crossover randomised design with 25 healthy young females as study participants. On separate days, they received either paroxetine or placebo and were exposed to one of two emotional movies: 'Once Were Warriors' and 'Brian's Song'. Crying was assessed by self-report. In addition, the reactions to emotional International Affective Picture System (IAPS) pictures and mood were measured. Results: Paroxetine had a significant inhibitory effect on crying. During both films, the paroxetine group cried significantly less than the placebo group. In contrast, no effects on mood and only minor effects on the reaction to the IAPS pictures were observed. Conclusions: A single dose of paroxetine inhibits emotional crying significantly. It is not sure what the underlying mechanism is. However, since there was no effect on mood and only minor effects on the response to emotional pictures, we postulate that paroxetine mainly acts on the physiological processes involved in the crying response.

Women's perspectives regarding subcutaneous injections, costs and live birth rates in IVF (Article)

2011-09-01T00:00:00Z

Background The addition of recombinant LH (rLH) to controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH) shows a beneficial effect on ongoing pregnancy rates in poor responder women, with an increase of ongoing pregnancy rate. Next to this possible beneficial effect, there are two potential drawbacks of adding rLH to COH; women have to administer extra injections, and daily rLH injections generate additional costs. We therefore investigated womens perspectives on an additional injection of rLH with respect to live birth rates (LBR) and out-of-pocket costs in a discrete choice experiment. Methods Women eligible for IVF were asked to choose between treatments that differed in LBR after one IVF cycle, the amount of self-administered injections and out-of-pocket costs or reimbursement. The relative weights that women place on these attributes were estimated with a logistic regression model. To test for heterogeneity of preferences among women, patient characteristics were included in the model. ResultsTwo-hundred and thirty-four women were asked to participate in the study. In total, 223 women responded (response rate 95) and 206 questionnaires were analysed. An increase of one daily injection did not alter womens treatment preference. LBR and costs did have a significant (P < 0.001) impact on womens choice of IVF treatment. Patient characteristics significantly influenced the effect of costs on womens preferences. Conclusions One extra daily injection will not cause a woman to refrain from a certain IVF treatment. However, to compensate for the out-of-pocket costs of this extra daily injection, the expected LBR should at least be 6.

Cardiac and electrophysiological responses to valid and invalid feedback in a time-estimation task (Article)

2011-07-13T00:00:00Z

This study investigated the cardiac and electrophysiological responses to feedback in a time-estimation task in which feedbackvalidity was manipulated. Participants across a wide age range had to produce 1 s intervals followed by positive and negative feedback that was valid or invalid (i.e., related or unrelated to the preceding time estimate). Performance results showed that they processed the information provided by the feedback. Negative feedback was associated with a transient cardiac slowing only when feedback was valid. Correct adjustments after valid negative feedback were associated with a more pronounced cardiac slowing. Validity did not affect the feedback-related negativity (FRN), except when remedial action was taken into account. The FRN and cardiac response to feedback decreased with advancing age, but performance did not. The current pattern of findings was interpreted to suggest that the FRN and cardiac response signal "alert" and that the cardiac response, but not the FRN, is implicated in the mechanisms invoked in remedial action.

The anterior cingulate cortex responds differently to the validity and valence of feedback in a time-estimation task (Article)

2011-06-15T00:00:00Z

This study examined the role of the medial frontal cortex in the processing of valence and validity of performance feedback using a time-estimation paradigm. Participants had to produce 1. s intervals followed by positive and negative feedback that could be valid or invalid (i.e., related or unrelated to task performance). Performance results showed that participants used the validity information to adjust their time estimations to negative feedback. The rostral cingulate zone (RCZ) was more active after valid feedback than after invalid feedback, but was insensitive to the valence of the feedback. The rostral anterior cingulate cortex (rACC), posterior cingulate and right superior frontal gyrus, however, appeared to be primarily sensitive to the valence of the feedback; being more active after positive feedback. The results are discussed along the lines of the ACC's cognitive and affective subdivisions and their structural and functional connections.

Role of semen analysis in subfertile couples (Article)

2011-03-01T00:00:00Z

Objective: To evaluate the associations between the results of the male partner's semen analysis (classified according to the World Health Organization [WHO] criteria) and fathering a child without any treatment. Design: Prospective multicenter cohort study. Setting: Twenty subfertility centers in The Netherlands. Patient(s): A total of 3,345 consecutive couples presenting for subfertility. Intervention(s): None. Main Outcome Measure(s): Associations between the results of the male partner's semen analysis, classified according to the WHO criteria, and fathering a child without any treatment within a time horizon of 1 year. Subsequently, we redefined semen quality criteria and reevaluated the associations. Result(s): Follow-up data of 3,129 couples (94%) were available, of which 517 (17%) had a healthy pregnancy without treatment. The 1-year pregnancy rate in men with WHO normozoospermia did not differ significantly from that in men with WHO impaired semen (24% vs. 23%). In contrast, we observed lower chances of fathering a child for sperm concentrations <40 Ã 106/mL, total sperm count <200 Ã 106, and sperm morphology <20% normal forms. With a multivariable regression model based on the redefined male semen subfertility criteria we were able to make a finer differentiation between subfertile men, with probabilities of fathering a child ranging from 7% to 41%. Conclusion(s): The current WHO criteria for semen quality do not discriminate between fertile and subfertile men. Our redefined and graded semen criteria have strong predictive value. If interpreted correctly, the fast and inexpensive semen analysis remains the gold standard for defining a man's role in subfertility.

Role of semen analysis in subfertile couples (Article)

2011-03-01T00:00:00Z

Long term costs and effects of reducing the number of twin pregnancies in IVF by single embryo transfer: The TwinSing study (Article)

2010-10-20T00:00:00Z

Background: Pregnancies induced by in vitro fertilisation (IVF) often result in twin gestations, which are associated with both maternal and perinatal complications. An effective way to reduce the number of IVF twin pregnancies is to decrease the number of embryos transferred from two to one. The interpretation of current studies is limited because they used live birth as outcome measure and because they applied limited time horizons. So far, research on long-term outcomes of IVF twins and singletons is scarce and inconclusive. The objective of this study is to investigate the short (1-year) and long-term (5 and 18-year) costs and health outcomes of IVF singleton and twin children and to consider these in estimating the cost-effectiveness of single embryo transfer compared with double embryo transfer, from a societal and a healthcare perspective.Methods/Design: A multi-centre cohort study will be performed, in which IVF singletons and IVF twin children born between 2003 and 2005 of whom parents received IVF treatment in one of the five participating Dutch IVF centres, will be compared. Data collection will focus on children at risk of health problems and children in whom health problems actually occurred. First year of life data will be collected in approximately 1,278 children (619 singletons and 659 twin children). Data up to the fifth year of life will be collected in approximately 488 children (200 singletons and 288 twin children). Outcome measures are health status, health-related quality of life and costs. Data will be obtained from hospital information systems, a parent questionnaire and existing registries. Furthermore, a prognostic model will be developed that reflects the short and long-term costs and health outcomes of IVF singleton and twin children. This model will be linked to a Markov model of the short-term cost-effectiveness of single embryo transfer strategies versus double embryo transfer strategies to enable the calculation of the long-term cost-effectiveness.Discussion: This is, to our knowledge, the first study that investigates the long-term costs and health outcomes of IVF singleton and twin children and the long-term cost-effectiveness of single embryo transfer strategies versus double embryo transfer strategies.

Acute tryptophan depletion selectively attenuates cardiac slowing in an Eriksen flanker task (Article)

2010-10-01T00:00:00Z

In the present study, the effects of transiently lowering central serotonin levels by means of acute tryptophan depletion on measures of cognitive flexibility were examined. Flexible behaviour was measured in an Eriksen flanker task, and cardiac and electro-cortical responses to errors and congruent and incongruent stimuli were measured. The depletion was successful in lowering tryptophan levels and, as expected, it did not affect subjective mood. Depletion did not affect performance and electro-cortical measures and selectively affected cardiac measures. Depletion attenuated cardiac slowing to incongruent flanker stimuli but did not affect cardiac responses to congruent stimuli and errors. The selective effect on cardiac responses as compared to performance and electro-cortical measures was in accordance with earlier findings, as well as the attenuation of cardiac slowing. The selective effect on the cardiac response to incongruent stimuli was unexpected. Detailed analyses showed a close connection to the earlier reported attenuation of the cardiac response to negative feedback, and the effect is explained in terms of reduced anticipation of the feedback stimulus due to enhanced punishment prediction. © The Author(s), 2010.

Time to pregnancy after a previous miscarriage in subfertile couples (Article)

2010-07-01T00:00:00Z

Objective: To assess the time to spontaneous ongoing pregnancy after a previous miscarriage in subfertile couples. Design: A prospective cohort study. Setting: The study was conducted in 38 fertility centers in the Netherlands. Patient(s): Subfertile couples who miscarried after completing their basic fertility work-up. Intervention(s): Expectant management after a miscarriage. Main Outcome Measure(s): Spontaneous ongoing pregnancy. Result(s): We included 5,663 subfertile couples, of which 1,098 (19%) conceived spontaneously. Among these 1,098 couples, 199 (18%) miscarried and these couples were included in the present study. Follow-up was completed for 171 couples, of which 95 conceived again within 24 months of follow-up. Of these 95 pregnancies, 86 (91%) were ongoing. The cumulative spontaneous ongoing pregnancy rate (PR) after 24 months was 70% (95% confidence interval [CI] 59%-81%). Conclusion(s): Subfertile couples, who experience a treatment-independent pregnancy resulting in a miscarriage, have very good prospects of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy in the near future. This information is useful in counseling couples who had a miscarriage after a previous period of subfertility.

Consecutive or non-consecutive recurrent miscarriage: Is there any difference in carrier status? (Article)

2010-06-01T00:00:00Z

Background Carrier status of a structural balanced chromosome abnormality is associated with recurrent miscarriage. There is, at present, no evidence of the impact of the sequence of preceding pregnancies on the probability of carrier status. The aim of our study was therefore to examine whether the history of consecutive versus non-consecutive miscarriages in couples with two or more miscarriages has any impact on the probability of carrying a chromosome abnormality. Methods A nested case-control study was performed in six centres for clinical genetics in the Netherlands. Couples referred for chromosome analysis after two or more miscarriages were included: 279 couples with a carrier of a structural chromosomal abnormality and 428 non-carrier couples who served as controls. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses, corrected for known risk factors for carrier status, were performed. The main outcome measure was the probability of carrier status. Result STwo hundred and fifty-six of 279 (92%) carrier couples and 381 of 428 (89) non-carrier couples had experienced consecutive miscarriages (P = 0.21). A history of two or three consecutive miscarriages did not alter the probability of carrier status when compared with two [odds ratio (OR) 0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.48-1.7] or three (OR 0.71, 95 CI 0.39-1.3) non-consecutive miscarriages. Conclusions The sequence of preceding pregnancies is not a risk factor for carrier status. Therefore, couples with miscarriages interspersed with healthy child(ren) should be managed the same as couples with consecutive miscarriages regarding chromosome diagnosis.

Prediction models in reproductive medicine: A critical appraisal (Article)

2009-08-27T00:00:00Z

Background: Prediction models have been developed in reproductive medicine to help assess the chances of a treatment-(in)dependent pregnancy. Careful evaluation is needed before these models can be implemented in clinical practice. Methods: We systematically searched the literature for papers reporting prediction models in reproductive medicine for three strategies: expectant management, intrauterine insemination (IUI) or in vitro fertilization (IVF). We evaluated which phases of development these models had passed, distinguishing between (i) model derivation, (ii) internal and/or external validation, and (iii) impact analysis. We summarized their performance at external validation in terms of discrimination and calibration. Results: We identified 36 papers reporting on 29 prediction models. There were 9 models for the prediction of treatment-independent pregnancy, 3 for the prediction of pregnancy after IUI and 17 for the prediction of pregnancy after IVF. All of the models had completed the phase of model derivation. For six models, the validity of the model was assessed only in the population in which it was developed (internal validation). For eight models, the validity was assessed in populations other than the one in which the model was developed (external validation), and only three of these showed good performance. One model had reached the phase of impact analysis. Conclusions: Currently, there are three models with good predictive performance. These models can be used reliably as a guide for making decisions about fertility treatment, in patients similar to the development population. The effects of using these models in patient care have to be further investigated.

Predictive value of pregnancy history in subfertile couples: results from a nationwide cohort study in the Netherlands (Article)

2008-09-01T00:00:00Z

Objective: To assess whether pregnancy history can predict the occurrence of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy in subfertile couples. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Thirty fertility centers in the Netherlands. Patient(s): Subfertile, ovulatory women with at least one patent tube and male partners without severely impaired semen quality. Intervention(s): Fertility work-up, including a detailed pregnancy history. Main Outcome Measure(s): Spontaneous ongoing pregnancy. Result(s): We included 4445 couples, of whom 793 (18%) had a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy within 1 year of follow-up. Previous live birth and miscarriage in current partnership were both associated with higher fecundity as compared with primary infertility (hazard rate ratios for spontaneous pregnancy [HR] 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2-1.7 and 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0-1.5, respectively). Pregnancies in a woman's previous partnerships did not affect the fecundity of the couple. A pregnancy in a previous partnership of the male partner was associated with lower fecundity (HR 0.76; 95% CI, 0.58-0.99). A previous pregnancy after fertility treatment also was associated with lower fecundity (HR 0.52; 95% CI, 0.30-0.90). Conclusion(s): Accurate prediction of the future fertility of a couple requires an exact assessment of the fertility history of both partners.

The METEX study: Methotrexate versus expectant management in women with ectopic pregnancy: A randomised controlled trial (Article)

2008-06-19T00:00:00Z

Background: Patients with ectopic pregnancy (EP) and low serum hCG concentrations and women with a pregnancy of unknown location (PUL) and plateauing serum hCG levels are commonly treated with systemic methotrexate (MTX). However, there is no evidence that treatment in these particular subgroups of women is necessary as many of these early EPs may resolve spontaneously. The aim of this study is whether expectant management in women with EP or PUL and with low but plateauing serum hCG concentrations is an alternative to MTX treatment in terms of treatment success, future pregnancy, health related quality of life and costs. Methods/Design: A multicentre randomised controlled trial in TheNetherlands. Hemodynamically stable patients with an EP visible on transvaginal ultrasound and a plateauing serum hCG concentration < 1,500 IU/L or with a persisting PUL with plateauing serum hCG concentrations < 2,000 IU/L are eligible for the trial. Patients with a viable EP, signs of tubal rupture/abdominal bleeding, or a contra-indication for MTX will not be included. Expectant management is compared with systemic MTX in a single dose intramuscular regimen (1 mg/ kg) in an outpatient setting. Serum hCG levels are monitored weekly; in case of inadequately declining, systemic MTX is installed or continued. In case of hemodynamic instability and/or signs of tubal rupture, surgery is performed. The primary outcome measure is an uneventful decline of serum hCG to an undetectable level by the initial intervention. Secondary outcomes are (re)interventions (additional systemic MTX injections and/or surgery), treatment complications, health related quality of life, financial costs, and future fertility. Analysis is performed according to the intention to treat principle. Quality of life is assessed by questionnaires before and at three time points after randomisation. Costs are expressed as direct costs with data on costs and used resources in the participating centres. Fertility is assessed by questionnaires after 6, 12, 18 and 24 months. Patients' preferences will be assessed using a discrete choice experiment. Discussion: This trial will provide guidance on the present management dilemmas in women with EPs and PULs with low and plateauing serum hCG concentrations.

Obesity affects spontaneous pregnancy chances in subfertile, ovulatory women (Article)

2008-02-01T00:00:00Z

BACKGROUND: Obesity is increasing rapidly among women all over the world. Obesity is a known risk factor for subfertility due to anovulation, but it is unknown whether obesity also affects spontaneous pregnancy chances in subfertile, ovulatory women. METHODS: We evaluated whether obesity affected the chance of a spontaneous pregnancy in a prospectively assembled cohort of 3029 consecutive subfertile couples. Women had to be ovulatory and had to have at least one patent tube, whereas men had to have a normal semen analysis. Time to spontaneous ongoing pregnancy within 12 months was the primary endpoint. RESULTS: The probability of a spontaneous pregnancy declined linearly with a body mass index (BMI) over 29 kg/m2. Corrected for possible related factors, women with a high BMI had a 4% lower pregnancy rate per kg/m2increase [hazard ratio: 0.96 (95% CI 0.91-0.99)]. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that obesity is associated with lower pregnancy rates in subfertile ovulatory women.

Immunoglobulin G antisperm antibodies and prediction of spontaneous pregnancy (Article)

2008-01-01T00:00:00Z

Objective: To investigate the predictive capacity of immunoglobulin G ASA (direct MAR test) for spontaneous ongoing pregnancy in subfertile couples. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Nine fertility centers in The Netherlands. Patient(s): Consecutive ovulatory subfertile couples. Intervention(s): A basic fertility workup, including a mixed agglutination reaction test for IgG (MAR test) at first semen analysis. Main Outcome Measure(s): Spontaneous conception resulting in ongoing pregnancy. Result(s): We included 1,794 couples, of which 283 (16%) had a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy within 1 year. When a threshold 50% was used for an abnormal test result, the MAR test was positive in 3% of the couples. In the univariable analysis, a positive MAR test ≥50% reduced, albeit not statistically significant, the probability of spontaneous pregnancy (hazard ratio [HR] 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.34 to 1.7). In the multivariable analysis, a positive MAR test ≥50% had no contribution in the prediction of spontaneous pregnancy (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.40 to 2.4). Conclusion(s): This large cohort study shows that the MAR test is not able to predict spontaneous pregnancy chances. Its routine use in the basic fertility workup for identification of couples with low spontaneous pregnancy chances is not justified.

Effectiveness of intrauterine insemination in subfertile couples with an isolated cervical factor: a randomized clinical trial (Article)

2007-12-01T00:00:00Z

After randomization of subfertile couples with an isolated cervical factor to intrauterine insemination for 6 months or expectant management for 6 months, 26 women (51%) vs. 16 women (33%) conceived, respectively. Of these pregnancies, 22 (43%) vs. 13 (27%) were ongoing (relative risk, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 0.91 to 2.8). There was one multiple pregnancy in the group that was allocated to intrauterine insemination. This trial suggests a beneficial effect of IUI in couples with an isolated cervical factor.

The additional value of ovarian hyperstimulation in intrauterine insemination for couples with an abnormal postcoital test and a poor prognosis: a randomized clinical trial (Article)

2007-12-01T00:00:00Z

Objective: To assess the effectiveness of controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH) in intrauterine insemination (IUI) for subfertile couples with an abnormal postcoital test and a poor prognosis. Design: Randomized clinical trial. Setting: Twenty-four fertility centers in the Netherlands. Patient(s): Subfertile couples with a well-timed nonprogressive PCT and additional factors that reduce fertility. Intervention(s): Couples were randomly allocated to three cycles of IUI with COH or three cycles of IUI without COH. Main Outcome Measure(s): Ongoing pregnancy within three IUI cycles. Result(s): We randomly allocated 132 couples to IUI with COH, and 133, to IUI without COH. We observed 33 pregnancies (25%) in the couples allocated to IUI with COH, of which 28 were ongoing (21%), vs. 28 pregnancies (21%) in the couples allocated to IUI without COH, of which 23 were ongoing (17%; relative risk of an ongoing pregnancy, 1.2; 95% confidence interval, 0.75 to 2.0). Two multiple pregnancies occurred in the IUI with COH group, and one, in the IUI without COH group. Conclusion(s): In couples with an abnormal PCT and a poor prognosis, IUI with COH leads to pregnancy rates comparable to those for IUI without COH. We propose to perform IUI without COH in couples with an abnormal PCT.

Identifying subfertile ovulatory women for timely tubal patency testing: A clinical decision rule based on medical history (Article)

2007-10-01T00:00:00Z

Background: The aim of tubal testing is to identify women with bilateral tubal pathology in a timely manner, so they can be treated with IVF or tubal surgery. At present, it is unclear for which women early tubal testing is indicated, and in whom it can be deferred. Methods: Data on 3716 women who underwent tubal patency testing as a part of their routine fertility workup were used to relate elements in their medical history to the presence of tubal pathology. With multivariable logistic regression, we constructed two diagnostic models. One in which tubal disease was defined as occlusion and/or severe adhesions of at least one tube, whereas in a second model, tubal disease was defined as the presence of bilateral abnormalities. Results: Both models discriminated moderately well between women with and women without tubal disease with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.65 (95% CI: 0.63-0.68) for any tubal pathology and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.65-0.71) for bilateral tubal pathology, respectively. However, the models could make an almost perfect distinction between women with a high and a low probability of tubal pathology. A decision rule in the form of a simple diagnostic score chart was developed for application of the models in clinical practice. Conclusions: In conclusion, the present study provides two easy to use decision rules that can accurately express a woman's probability of (severe) tubal pathology at the couple's first consultation. They could be used to select women for tubal testing more efficiently.

Reply: Pregnancy is predictable: A large-scale prospective external validation of the prediction of spontaneous pregnancy in subfertile couples [2] (Article)

2007-08-01T00:00:00Z

Predictive value and clinical impact of basal follicle-stimulating hormone in subfertile, ovulatory women (Article)

2007-06-01T00:00:00Z

Context: Basal FSH is a marker for ovarian reserve. Objectives: The objective of the study was to investigate the predictive value of basal FSH on spontaneous ongoing pregnancy in subfertile ovulatory women. Design: This was a prospective cohort study. Setting: The study was conducted in 19 fertility centers in The Netherlands. Participants: Subfertile ovulatory women without two-sided tubal pathology and in whom the man had normal sperm parameters (total motile count ≥ 3 × 106) participated in the study. Interventions: Interventions included a fertility work-up, including a basal FSH measurement on cycle d 3. Main Outcome Measures: Spontaneous ongoing pregnancy was measured. Results: We included 3519 consecutive couples of which 562 (16%) had a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy within 1 yr. Basal FSH levels of 8 IU/liter or higher were associated with a decreased probability of spontaneous ongoing pregnancy [hazard ratio (HR) 0.93/IU·liter (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87-0.98)]. In a multivariable analysis, female age (HR 0.97/yr, 95% CI 0.95-0.99), cycle length (HR 0.96/d, 95% CI 0.93-1.0), and FSH levels 8 IU/liter or greater (HR 0.93/IU·liter, 95% CI 0.87-0.99) were strong negative predictors for spontaneous ongoing pregnancy. Addition of FSH to a prediction model based on female age, duration of subfertility, previous pregnancy, referral status, and semen analysis changed the probability to conceive spontaneously from 30% or greater to less than 30% in 97 of 3219 couples (3.0%). Conclusions: In ovulatory women, a basal FSH level of 8 IU/liter or higher is associated with decreasing fecundity, independent of female age and cycle length. Because the number of couples in whom the FSH level alters management decisions is low, we do not recommend routine testing of basal FSH in subfertile couples. Copyright

Pregnancy is predictable: A large-scale prospective external validation of the prediction of spontaneous pregnancy in subfertile couples (Article)

2007-02-01T00:00:00Z

Background: Prediction models for spontaneous pregnancy may be useful tools to select subfertile couples that have good fertility prospects and should therefore be counselled for expectant management. We assessed the accuracy of a recently published prediction model for spontaneous pregnancy in a large prospective validation study. Methods: In 38 centres, we studied a consecutive cohort of subfertile couples, referred for an infertility work-up. Patients had a regular menstrual cycle, patent tubes and a total motile sperm count (TMC) >3 × 106. After the infertility work-up had been completed, we used a prediction model to calculate the chance of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy (www.freya.nl/probability.php). The primary end-point was time until the occurrence of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy within 1 year. The performance of the pregnancy prediction model was assessed with calibration, which is the comparison of predicted and observed ongoing pregnancy rates for groups of patients and discrimination. Results: We included 3021 couples of whom 543 (18%) had a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy, 57 (2%) a non-successful pregnancy, 1316 (44%) started treatment, 825 (27%) neither started treatment nor became pregnant and 280 (9%) were lost to follow-up. Calibration of the prediction model was almost perfect. In the 977 couples (32%) with a calculated probability between 30 and 40%, the observed cumulative pregnancy rate at 12 months was 30%, and in 611 couples (20%) with a probability of ≥40%, this was 46%. The discriminative capacity was similar to the one in which the model was developed (c-statistic 0.59). Conclusions: As the chance of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy among subfertile couples can be accurately calculated, this prediction model can be used as an essential tool for clinical decision-making and in counselling patients. The use of the prediction model may help to prevent unnecessary treatment.

Should the post-coital test (PCT) be part of the routine fertility work-up? (Article)

2004-06-01T00:00:00Z

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to determine whether medical history and semen analysis can predict the result of the post-coital test (PCT). METHODS: A previously reported data set of Dutch patients collected between 1985 and 1993 was used. Our study was limited to just patients with an ovulatory cycle. Data were complete for medical history, semen analysis and PCT. We performed logistic regression analysis to evaluate whether these factors could predict the result of the PCT (PCT model). Furthermore, we evaluated the additional contribution of the PCT in the prediction of treatment-independent pregnancy (pregnancy model). RESULTS: Thirty-four percent (179 out of 522) had an abnormal PCT. The PCT model contained previous pregnancy [odds ratio (OR) 2.1; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-3.5], semen volume (OR 0.88; 95% CI 0.77-0.99), sperm concentration (OR 0.96; 95% CI 0.94-0.97), sperm motility (OR 0.97; 95% CI 0.96-0.98) and sperm morphology (OR 2.7; 95% CI 1.2-6.8). The area under the ROC curve of the model was 0.81. In the pregnancy model, the result of the actual PCT could be replaced by the predicted result of the PCT model in about half of the couples, without compromising its predictive capacity. CONCLUSION: The medical history and semen analysis can predict the result of the PCT in approximately 50% of the subfertile couples with a regular cycle, without compromising its potential to predict pregnancy.