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journal model price volatility forecast future table paper tourism market return impact citation effect economic garch taiwan shock growth mcaleer result estimate article variance tourist influence correlation period research science ethanol score finance journal self citations arrival value eigenfactor factor tourist arrivals country series article influence 2 yif university egarch level condition crude number equation commodity error threshold chang volatility models parameter index relationship variable exchange gdp growth rate performance management measure 5 yif stock inflation rate inflation figure persistence h-index moment quality pi-beta statistic analysis panel korean tourist arrivals world 1.000
