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patient study hgd /oac factor complication pancreatitis risk factors medication bo diagnosis diagnosis post-ercp analysis barrett incubation period endoscopy post-ercp complications period prognostic model cancer table cholangiti ibd patients adenomas spigelman model cohort adenomatous polyposis post-ercp pancreatitis sphincterotomy stage endoscopic group risk factor fap patients dysplasia follow-up adenocarcinoma center surveillance range procedure incubation result incidence flammatory bowel disease oesophagu spigelman stage gastroenterol population interval review staining prognostic treatment polyposi multivariable multivariable analysis oesophageal disease length adenomatou death adenoma literature progression female conception outcome survivor chromoendoscopy desire bowel endosc retrospective number signi patient population value anti-tnf onset