Vrugt, E.B.

volatility uncertainty bond volatility policy maturity market variable policy uncertainty bond market volatility measure vrugt /the quarter table review change series estimate sample period treasury 0.01 0.02 0.00 survey treasury bond volatility period arnold 707–728 vrugt forecast 0.05 regression tbill policy rate level t-value model conclusion sample 0.03 inflation significance uncertainty variables 0.10 0.04 report price future value 0.19 interest 30- return result bootstrap interest rate 0.10 level 0.06 forecaster expectation account 0.13∗∗∗ causality day t −n parameter estimates ∗ pgdp time series volatility time t coefficient 0.27∗∗∗ 0.50 section volatility measure literature equation 0.12 0.16 asset 0.07 0.09 market volatility