Campbell-Pownall, R.A.J.

return correlation distribution market estimate portfolio chapter index credit downside level approach asset downside risk period management table investor equity confidence deviation result model credit spread risk assumption measure spread finance normality premium exchange stock quantile error sample downside risk framework student-t theory student-t distribution value probability risk management confidence level january equation value-at-risk tail index var-x return distribution forecast figure interest &p 500 framework evidence estimator function price selection confidence levels factor alternative fisher student-tr portfolio selection estimation volatility risk premium degree puzzle journal change bivariate pricing hill estimator equity markets utility research risk-return correlation structure