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model price brand density parameter share sampling market purchase household distribution method algorithm consumption effect value reference target probability share-switching importance transformation market shares result estimate example table target density market share candidate direction state choice journal importance sampling sample marketing brand choice reference price function monte number inventory approach analysis figure integration target distribution level variable fidence consumer weight drawing carlo utility bayesian candidate density promotion reference price formation quantity time t research purchase incidence chain adaptive category respondent transition distance matrix markov scanner simulation section occasion change price elasticities month condition