http://repub.eur.nl/res/aut/21850/ List of Publications en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/37422/ 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z We demonstrate that the Data Generating Process (DGP) of China's cumulated quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP, current prices), as it is reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC), can be (very closely) approximated by a simple rule. This rule says that the annual growth in any quarter is equal to the annual growth in its previous quarter plus an error term that is only nonzero in the first quarter of each year and with small variance. We show that this rule fits the data well for the period 1992Q1-2005Q4 for total GDP. It also gives accurate forecasts for 2006Q1-2009Q4. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/34930/ 2012-08-28T00:00:00Z This dissertation includes five academic papers that – one way or the other – all relate to China. The first paper delivers proof for the central thesis of this thesis, which is that China’s boom caused the 2008 financial crisis and ensuing recession. As much as I hoped from the outset to find evidence that China’s leadership purposely flooded global financial markets with cheap money, I have concluded on the basis of my research that the Chinese have more prosaic reasons to save more than half of their national income, and hold it overwhelmingly in the form of bank deposits, driving down global interest rates. The second paper explains why Chinese households save about 30 percent of household income. The third paper shows that individuals in China are susceptible to money illusion, albeit to a lesser extent than their American counterparts. On the basis of financial markets’ response to Chinese GDP figures we have found no evidence, in paper 4, that China’s National Bureau of Statistics ‘cooks the books.’ Last and also least, in paper 5 we show that China’s Q2, Q3 and Q4 GDP numbers are rather predictable because quarterly GDP is reported cumulatively. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/26792/ 2011-10-14T00:00:00Z Using a unique dataset collected through a well-established survey, which was carried out in China, we examine whether Chinese individuals are prone to money illusion. In contrast to the outcomes for US individuals, we find that the Chinese are more likely to base decisions on the real monetary value of economic transactions. We put these observed differences in findings in perspective by comparing the economic conditions in the US and China. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/25635/ 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in China follows a random walk. Also, it has often been suggested that China 'cooks its books', that is to say that governmental officials in China manipulate economic statistics, such as GDP growth rate to present the outside world a rosy picture (Foreign Policy, 3 September 2009). If such unreliability is known to stock traders, news on GDP should not impact stock market fluctuations or their volatility. We test this hypothesis for 12 series with daily stock market returns for the years 2006 to and including 2009. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/20146/ 2010-07-28T00:00:00Z Real GDP growth in China follows a random walk. Also, it has often been suggested that China “cooks its books”, that is to say that governmental officials in China manipulate economic statistics such as GDP growth rate to present the outside world a rosy picture (Foreign Policy, September 3, 2009). If such unreliability is known to stock traders, news on GDP should not impact stock market fluctuations or their volatility. We test this hypothesis for 12 series with daily stock market returns for the years 2006 to and including 2009. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/18259/ 2010-02-23T00:00:00Z We demonstrate that the data generating process (DGP) of China’s cumulated quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP, current prices), as it is reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, can be (very closely) approximated by a simple rule. This rule is that annual growth in any quarter is equal to annual growth in its previous quarter plus an error term that is only nonzero in the first quarter of each year and with small variance. We show that this rule fits the data for 1992Q1 to 2005Q4 well, for total GDP as well for its three sector-specific components. It also gives accurate forecasts for 2006Q1 to 2009Q4. We also study the time series properties of GDP growth in constant prices, and show that these series behave as random walks, with much larger error variance.