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model transition estimate parameter panel probability election party variable sample table section value voter panel data series survey analysis number markov effect period covariate study result weather observation method estimation entry function netherland rcs data television likelihood transition probabilities application time series journal information markov model program process state paper inference research change eisinga error dutch example condition outcome frequency order bootstrap time period weather conditions pelzer party choice approach science sequence policy trend increase education e ffect cycle american people entertainment figure children convergence franse forecast assumption f f f