http://repub.eur.nl/res/aut/27731/ List of Publications en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/22498/ 2003-04-01T00:00:00Z BACKGROUND: We sought to derive and internally validate a simple and easily applied clinical prediction rule to identify patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF) whose stroke risk while taking aspirin is, irrespective of age, low enough that oral anticoagulation therapy is unnecessary. METHODS: We included 2501 patients with AF treated with aspirin during participation in 6 clinical trials. Patients were randomly divided into derivation and validation sets. Recursive partitioning was used to identify patients in the derivation set whose risk for stroke (ischemic or hemorrhagic) or transient ischemic attack was comparable to that observed in an age- and sex-matched cohort from the Framingham Heart Study. The derived prediction rules were tested on the validation set. RESULTS: Overall, 166 patients (6.6%) had an event during 4688.6 person-years (PYs) of observation for an incident rate of 3.5 events per 100 PYs. Patients in the derivation set classified as low risk (no previous stroke or transient ischemic attack, no treated hypertension or systolic blood pressure equal to or exceeding 140 mm Hg, no symptomatic coronary artery disease, and no diabetes) experienced 1.0 events per 100 PYs, compared with an age- and sex-matched rate of 1.2 events per 100 PYs. In the validation set, low-risk patients experienced 1.1 events per 100 PYs (expected rate of 1.2 events per 100 PYs). Low-risk patients made up 24% of the cohort and 16% of patients older than 75 years. Low-risk patients who were randomized to therapeutic oral anticoagulation therapy experienced 1.5 events per 100 PYs. CONCLUSION: Irrespective of age, patients with AF and none of these 4 clinical features and who take aspirin have stroke rates comparable to those of age-matched community cohorts and would not benefit substantially from anticoagulation. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/22504/ 2002-11-01T00:00:00Z CONTEXT: Patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF) have an increased risk of stroke and other vascular events. OBJECTIVE: To compare the risk of vascular and bleeding events in patients with nonvalvular AF treated with vitamin K -inhibiting oral anticoagulants or acetylsalicylic acid (aspirin). DESIGN: Pooled analysis of patient-level data from 6 published, randomized clinical trials. PATIENTS: A total of 4052 patients with AF randomly assigned to receive therapeutic doses of oral anticoagulant or aspirin with or without low-dose oral anticoagulants. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, other cardiovascular events, all-cause death, and major bleeding events. Person-year incidence rates were calculated to provide crude comparisons. Relative efficacy was assessed using proportional hazards modeling stratified by study. The variation of the oral anticoagulant's relative effect by pertinent patient factors was explored with interaction terms. All analyses were conducted using the intention-to-treat principle. RESULTS: Patients receiving oral anticoagulant and aspirin were balanced for important prognostic factors. There was no significant heterogeneity between trials in the relative efficacy of oral anticoagulant vs aspirin for any outcome. Patients receiving oral anticoagulant were significantly less likely to experience any stroke (2.4 vs 4.5 events per 100 patient-years; hazard ratio [HR], 0.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.43-0.71), ischemic stroke (HR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.37-0.63), or cardiovascular events (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.59-0.85) but were more likely to experience major bleeding (2.2 vs 1.3 events per 100 patient-years; HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.21-2.41). The reduction in ischemic stroke risk was similar in patients with paroxysmal AF (1.5 vs 4.7 events per 100 patient-years; HR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.16-0.61; P<.001). Treating 1000 patients with AF for 1 year with oral anticoagulant rather than aspirin would prevent 23 ischemic strokes while causing 9 additional major bleeds. Overall all-cause survival did not differ but appeared to improve for oral anticoagulant patients 3 years after therapy was started. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with aspirin, oral anticoagulant significantly decreases the risk of all strokes, ischemic strokes, and cardiovascular events for patients with nonvalvular chronic or paroxysmal AF but modestly increases the absolute risk of major bleeding. The balance of benefits and risks varies by patient subgroup.