Hauwe, S. van den

model target parameter probability distribution variable break decision period value target rate decisions probit model forecast forecasting target rate baseline sample speci probit predictor result e ffect figure fication month change likelihood section journal speci fication bayesian meeting out-of-sample example θ t −1 series approach 0.4 0.2 simulation increase inclusion fomc decisions 0.6 table measure funds target rate fferent indicator mixture in-sample sampler spread density policy consumer flation predictor variables decrease model parameters gibbs sampler parameter value fi nancial variables january regime component di fference reserve observation 0.8 θ t +1 output information sample period target rate rt number time series e ffects percent variance