http://repub.eur.nl/res/aut/2891/ List of Publications en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/37995/ 2012-08-01T00:00:00Z Bürer and Wüstenhagen (2009) examined the preferences of 60 clean-tech venture capital and private equity investors regarding renewable energy and climate policies in 2007. This paper presents the results of a research project that examined whether these investor preferences changed due to the financial crisis. We re-conducted that part of Bürer and Wüstenhagen (2009) survey that focuses on the preferences for 12 market-pull policies. Comparing our results with those from 2007, we found that the popularity of 11 out of 12 policies decreased. The decrease was significant for those policies that involve subsidies and trade related schemes such as CO2emissions and green certificates trading. The decrease in the popularity of the policies was mainly the result of changes in the preferences of European investors, whereas the preferences of North American investors did not change noteworthy. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/37184/ 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z We present an alternative measurement method of investor overconfidence, using unique survey data on stock market predictions of investors. We apply the Parkinson estimate based on extreme bounds around the stock forecast to deduce investor confidence. The results support overconfidence. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/20094/ 2010-07-01T00:00:00Z Electricity is not storable. As a consequence, electricity demand and supply need to be in balance at any moment in time as a shortage in production volume cannot be compensated with supply from inventories. However, if the installed power supply capacity is very flexible, variation in demand can be counterbalanced with flexible adjustment of production volumes. Therefore, supply flexibility can replace the role of inventory. In this paper, we question whether power production flexibility is a substitute for storability. To do so, we examine power futures prices from countries that differ in their power supply and test whether power futures prices contain information about expected future spot prices and risk premiums and examine whether futures prices from a market in which power supply is more flexible would lead to futures prices that are more in line with the theory of storage. We find the opposite; futures prices from markets with flexible power supply behave according to the expectations theory. The implicit view from futures prices is that flexibility is not a substitute for storability. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/19979/ 2010-03-01T00:00:00Z This paper examines the robustness of the results found by Douglas and Popova (2008). They examine the electricity forward premium in relation to gas storage inventories and find that, although electricity is not directly storable, electricity forward premiums are lower when gas storage inventories are higher, especially on days with high temperatures. Douglas and Popova (2008) derive their results from a forward premium model that is an extension of the Bessembinder and Lemmon (2002) model. We examine whether the gas storage inventory results hold under a different specification of the forward risk premium. Our results support the results found by Douglas and Popova (2008) and show that their results are not influenced by the specification of the forward premium model. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16246/ 2009-07-07T00:00:00Z This paper examines the robustness of the results found by Douglas and Popova (2008). They examine the electricity forward premium in relation to gas storage inventories and find that, although electricity is not directly storable, electricity forward premiums are lower when gas storage inventories are higher, especially on days with high temperatures. Douglas and Popova (2008) derive their results from a forward premium model that is an extension of the Bessembinder and Lemmon (2002) model. We examine the robustness of their results, by examining whether the gas storage inventory results hold under a different specification of the forward risk premium. Our result support the results found by Douglas and Popova (2008) and show that their results are not influenced by the specification of the forward premium model. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/17982/ 2009-01-01T00:00:00Z Electricity purchasers manage a portfolio of contracts in order to purchase the expected future electricity consumption profile of a company or a pool of clients. This paper proposes a mean-variance framework to address the concept of structuring the portfolio and focuses on how to optimally allocate positions in peak and off-peak forward contracts. It is shown that the optimal allocations are based on the difference in risk premiums per unit of day-ahead risk as a measure of relative costs of hedging risk in the day-ahead markets. The outcomes of the model are then applied to show (i) that it is typically not optimal to hedge a baseload consumption profile with a baseload forward contract and (ii) that, under reasonable assumptions, risk taking by the purchaser is rewarded by lower expected costs. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10775/ 2007-12-07T00:00:00Z Electricity purchasers manage a portfolio of contracts in order to purchase the expected future electricity consumption profile of a company or a pool of clients. This paper proposes a mean-variance framework to address the concept of structuring the portfolio and focuses on how to allocate optimal positions in peak and off-peak forward contracts. It is shown that the optimal allocations are based on the difference in risk premiums per unit of day-ahead risk as a measure of relative costs of hedging risk in the day-ahead markets. The outcomes of the model are then applied to show 1) whether it is optimal to purchase a baseload consumption profile with a baseload forward contract and 2) that, under reasonable assumptions, risk taking by the purchaser is rewarded by lower expected costs. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10179/ 2007-06-08T00:00:00Z It is well known that day-ahead prices in power markets exhibit spikes. These spikes are sudden increases in the day-ahead price that occur because power production is not flexible enough to respond to demand and/or supply shocks in the short term. This paper focuses on how temperature influences the probability on a spike. The paper shows that the difference between the actual and expected temperature significantly influences the probability on a spike and that the impact of temperature on spike probability depends on the season. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8995/ 2007-02-21T00:00:00Z This paper deals with the question how an electricity end-consumer or distribution company should structure its portfolio with energy forward contracts. This paper introduces a one period framework to determine optimal positions in peak and off-peak contracts in order to purchase future consumption volume. In this framework, the end-consumer or distribution company is assumed to minimize expected costs of purchasing respecting an ex-ante risk limit defined in terms of Value at Risk. Based on prices from the German EEX market, it is shown that a risk-loving agent is able to obtain lower expected costs than for a risk-averse agent. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8993/ 2007-02-19T00:00:00Z According to uncovered interest rate Parity (UIP), the expected relative change in an exchange rate is equal to the difference between interest rates between the two currencies. Empirically, UIP is frequently rejected. In this paper, we examine whether exchange rates have at least any tendency to move in the direction predicted by UIP and whether exchange rates tend to move more in line with UIP in periods with large interest rate differentials. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8288/ 2007-01-15T00:00:00Z In this paper, we examine in which periods uncovered interest rate parity was likely to hold. Empirical research has shown mixed evidence on UIP. The main finding is that it doesn’t hold, although some researchers were not able to reject UIP in periods with large interest differentials or high volatility. In this paper, we introduce a switching regime framework in which we assume that the exchange rate can switch between a UIP regime and a random walk regime. Our empirical results provide evidence that exchange rate movements were consistent with UIP over some periods, but not all. Consistent with the existing literature we also show that in periods with large interest differentials or increased exchange rate volatility, the exchange rate is more likely to follow UIP. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8289/ 2007-01-15T00:00:00Z This paper focuses on the characteristics of hourly electricity prices in day-ahead markets. In these markets, quotes for day-ahead delivery of electricity are submitted simultaneously for all hours in the next day. The same information set is used for quoting all hours of the day. The dynamics of hourly electricity prices does not behave as a time series process. Instead, these prices should be treated as a panel in which the prices of 24 cross-sectional hours vary from day to day. This paper introduces a panel model for hourly electricity prices in day-ahead markets and examines their characteristics. The results show that hourly electricity prices exhibit hourly specific mean-reversion and that they oscillate around an hourly specific mean price level. Furthermore, a block structured cross-sectional correlation pattern between the hours is apparent. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/1493/ 2004-08-13T00:00:00Z In this paper, we examine economic efficiency in the Dutch power market, an important pillar for successful creation of a competitive and non-discriminatory free power market. We examine historical time series of prices and volumes on the Dutch balancing market where energy companies are obliged to offer reserve capacity in order to offset power surpluses and deficits on the grid. We argue that these balancing prices and volumes are indicators for the level of economic efficiency. We find evidence that the level of economic efficiency has increased in the Dutch power market while the level of security of supply has maintained. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/924/ 2003-09-24T00:00:00Z Spot power prices exhibit extreme price jumps and the tendency to oscillate around a long-term mean. Despite these well-known characteristics, electricity price models used for Monte Carlo simulations, VaR related measures, or derivatives valuation, often assume normally distributed residuals. In this paper, we examine the distributional characteristics of model residuals and show that the hypothesis of normality is rejected due to significant tail fatness and skewness. We then examine the Student-t distribution as a candidate fit for residuals and as an alternative distribution for random innovations in Monte Carlo simulations. The resulting price patterns clearly show that simulations based on the Student-t distribution resemble more closely actual power price patters. We then discuss the implications of our results for risk management. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/241/ 2002-10-22T00:00:00Z It is widely known that the small but looming possibility of default renders the expected return distribution for financial products containing credit risk to be highly skewed and fat tailed. In this paper we apply recent techniques developed for incorporating the additional risk faced by changes in swap spreads. Using data from the US, UK, Germany, and Japan, we find that the risk faced from large spread widenings and tightenings is grossly underestimated. Estimation of swap spread risk is dramatically improved when the severity of the fat tails is measured and incorporated into current estimation techniques. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/242/ 2002-10-22T00:00:00Z Electricity prices are known to be very volatile and subject to frequent jumps due to system breakdown, demand shocks, and inelastic supply. Appropriate pricing, portfolio, and risk management models should incorporate these spikes. We develop a framework to price European-style options that are consistent with the possibility of market spikes. The pricing framework is based on a regime jump model that disentangles mean-reversion from the spikes. In the model the spikes are truly time-specific events and therefore independent from the mean-reverting price process. This closely resembles the characteristics of electricity prices, as we show with Dutch APX spot price data in the period January 2001 till June 2002. Thanks to the independence of the two price processes in the model, we break derivative prices down in a mean-reverting value and a spike value. We use this result to show how the model can be made consistent with forward prices in the market and present closed-form formulas for European-style options. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/111/ 2001-08-15T00:00:00Z Electricity prices are known to be very volatile and subject to frequent jumps due to system breakdown, demand shocks, and inelastic supply. As many international electricity markets are in some state of deregulation, more and more participants in these markets are exposed to these stylised facts. Appropriate pricing, portfolio, and risk management models should incorporate these facts. Authors have introduced stochastic jump processes to deal with the jumps, but we argue and show that this specification might lead to problems with identifying the true mean-reversion within the process. Instead, we propose using a regime jump model that disentangles mean-reversion from jump behaviour. This model resembles more closely the true price path of electricity prices. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/21/ 2000-05-18T00:00:00Z In this paper we present a new methodology to infer the implied risk-neutral distribution function from European-style options. We introduce a skewed version of the Student-t distribution, whose main advantage is that its shape depends on only four parameters, of which two directly control for the levels of skewness and kurtosis. We can thus easily vary parameters to compare different distributions and use the parameters as inputs to price other options. We explain the method, provide some empirical results and compare them with the results of alternative models. The results indicate that our model provides a better fit to market prices of options than the Shimko or implied tree models, and has a lower computation time than most other models. We conclude that the skewed Student-t method provides a good alternative for European-style options.