http://repub.eur.nl/res/aut/3496/ List of Publications en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/37870/ 2012-03-01T00:00:00Z Prior international segmentation studies have been static in that they have identified segments that remain stable over time. This paper shows that country segments in new product growth are intrinsically dynamic. We propose a semiparametric hidden Markov model to dynamically segment countries based on the observed penetration pattern of new product categories. This methodology allows countries to switch between segments over the life cycle of the new product, with time-varying transition probabilities. Our approach is based on penalized splines and can thus be flexibly applied to any nonstationary phenomenon, beyond the new product growth context.For the penetration of six new product categories in 79 countries, we recover the dynamic membership of each country to segments over the life cycle. Our findings reveal substantial dynamics in international market segmentation, especially at the beginning of the product life. Finally, we exploit the dynamic segments to predict the national penetration patterns of a new product before its launch and show that our forecasts outperform forecasts derived from alternate parametric and/or static methods. Our results should encourage multinational corporations to adopt dynamic segmentation methods rather than static methods. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/20959/ 2010-08-20T00:00:00Z In this article, we discuss the state of the art of models for customer engagement and the problems that are inherent to calibrating and implementing these models. The authors first provide an overview of the data available for customer analytics and discuss recent developments. Next, the authors discuss the models used for studying customer engagement, where they distinguish the following stages: customer acquisition, customer development, and customer retention. Finally, they discuss several organizational issues of analytics for customer engagement, which constitute barriers for introducing analytics for customer engagement. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/18257/ 2009-07-01T00:00:00Z Prior marketing literature has overlooked the role of regulatory regimes in explaining international sales growth of new products. This paper addresses this gap in the context of new pharmaceuticals (15 new molecules in 34 countries) and sheds light on the effects of regulatory regimes on new drug sales across the globe. Based on a time-varying coefficient model, we find that differences in regulation substantially contribute to cross-country variation in sales. One of the regulatory constraints investigated, i.e., manufacturer price controls, has a positive effect on drug sales. The other forms of regulation such as restrictions of physician prescription budgets and the prohibition of direct-to-consumer advertising (DTCA) tend to hurt sales. The effect of manufacturer price controls is similar for newly launched and mature drugs. By contrast, regulations on physician prescription budgets and DTCA have a differential effect for newly launched and mature drugs. Whereas the former hurts mature drugs more, the latter has a larger effect on newly launched drugs. In addition to these regulatory effects, we find that national culture, economic wealth, and lagged sales also affect drug sales. Our findings may be used as input by managers for international launch and marketing decisions. They may also be used by public policy administrators to assess the role of regulatory regimes in pharmaceutical sales growth. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/12340/ 2008-05-15T00:00:00Z Prior marketing literature has overlooked the role of regulatory regimes in explaining international sales growth of new products. This paper addresses this gap in the context of new pharmaceuticals (15 new molecules in 34 countries) and sheds light on the effect regulatory regimes have on new drug sales across the globe. Based on a time-varying coefficient model, we find that differences in regulation substantially contribute to cross-country variation in sales. One of the regulatory constraints investigated, i.e. manufacturer price controls, has a positive effect on drug sales. The other forms of regulation such as restrictions of physician prescription budgets and the prohibition of direct-to-consumer advertising tend to hurt sales. The effect of manufacturer price controls is similar for newly launched and mature drugs. In contrast, regulations on physician prescription budget and direct-to-consumer advertising have a differential effect for newly launched and mature drugs. While the former hurts mature drugs more, the latter has a larger effect on newly launched drugs. In addition to these regulatory effects, we find that national culture, economic wealth, introduction timing, lagged sales and competition, also affect drug sales. Our findings may be used as input by managers for international launch and sales decisions. They may also be used by public policy administrators to compare drug sales in their country to other countries and to assess the role of regulatory regimes therein. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/1942/ 2005-04-07T00:00:00Z The ongoing unification which takes place on the European political scene, along with recent advances in consumer mobility and communication technology, raises the question whether the European Union can be treated as a single market to fully exploit the potential synergy effects from pan-European marketing strategies. Previous research, which mostly used domain-specific segmentation bases, has resulted in mixed conclusions. In this paper, a more general segmentation base is adopted, as we consider the homogeneity in the European countries’ Consumer Confidence Indicators. Moreover, rather than analyzing more traditional static similarity measures, we adopt the concepts of dynamic correlation and cohesion between countries. The short-run fluctuations in consumer confidence are found to be largely country specific. However, a myopic focus on these fluctuations may inspire management to adopt multicountry strategies, foregoing the potential longer-run benefits from more standardized marketing strategies. Indeed, the Consumer Confidence Indicators become much more homogeneous as the planning horizon is extended. However, this homogeneity is found to remain inversely related to the cultural, economic and geographic distances among the various Member States. Hence, pan-regional rather pan-European strategies are called for. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/1814/ 2004-12-01T00:00:00Z We develop a bivariate spectral Granger-causality test that can be applied at each individual frequency of the spectrum. The spectral approach to Granger causality has the distinct advantage that it allows to disentangle (potentially) di®erent Granger- causality relationships over di®erent time horizons. We illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach in the context of the predictive value of European production expectation surveys. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/1175/ 2004-02-20T00:00:00Z For over forty years, Business Tendency Surveys have been collected in multiple member states of the European Union. Previous research has studied the predictive accuracy of the expectation variables included in those surveys through bivariate, within-country, Granger-causality tests, which has resulted in mixed conclusions. We extend previous research in various ways, as we (i) explicitly allow for cross-country influences, and (ii) do so using both bivariate and multivariate Granger-causality tests. Specifically, the multivariate El-Himdi and Roy test is adapted to jointly test the forecasting value of multiple production expectation series, to assess whether part of this joint effect is indeed due to cross-country influences, and to determine which countries' expectation series have most "clout" in predicting the production levels in the other member countries, or have higher "receptivity", in that their production levels are Granger-caused by the other countries' expectations.