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mortality disease decline mortality decline cause death netherland transition period health country study infant change episode determinant cluster level table trend century result visit infant mortality difference population group tuberculosis childhood mortality analysis childhood increase productivity cancer otitis media factor theory percentage fertility association classification cause-specific parent chapter fever roman children child region 1875/79 spain point figure example system number italy transition theory symptom category 1895/99 physician tnortality respect phase life expectancy heart survey pattern otiti analyses wealth belgium effect media contribution productivity losses doctor omran model