Oostenbrink, J.B.

Expected value of perfect information: an empirical example of reducing decision uncertainty by conducting additional research (Article)

2008-12-01T00:00:00Z

Abstract OBJECTIVE: Value of information (VOI) analysis informs decision-makers about the expected value of conducting more research to support a decision. This expected value of (partial) perfect information (EV(P)PI) can be estimated by simultaneously eliminating uncertainty on all (or some) parameters involved in model-based decision-making. This study aimed to calculate the EVPPI, before and after collecting additional information on the parameter of a probabilistic Markov model with the highest EVPPI. METHODS: The model assessed the 5-year costs per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) of three bronchodilators in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). It had identified tiotropium as the bronchodilator with the highest expected net benefit. Total EVPI was estimated plus the EVPPIs for four groups of parameters: 1) transition probabilities between COPD severity stages; 2) exacerbation probabilities; 3) utility weights; and 4) costs. Partial EVPI analyses were performed using one-level and two-level sampling algorithms. RESULTS: Before additional research, the total EVPI was Euro 1985 per patient at a threshold value of Euro 20,000 per QALY. EVPPIs were Euro 1081 for utilities, Euro 724 for transition probabilities, and relatively small for exacerbation probabilities and costs. A large study was performed to obtain more precise EQ-5D utilities by COPD severity stages. After using posterior utilities, the EVPPI for utilities decreased to almost zero. The total EVPI for the updated model was reduced to Euro 1037. With an EVPPI of Euro 856, transition probabilities were now the single most important parameter contributing to the EVPI. CONCLUSIONS: This VOI analysis clearly identified parameters for which additional research is most worthwhile. After conducting additional research on the most important parameter, i.e., the utilities, total EVPI was substantially reduced.

Modelling the 5-year cost effectiveness of tiotropium, salmeterol and ipratropium for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Spain (Article)

2007-06-01T00:00:00Z

Our objective was to assess the 5-year cost effectiveness of bronchodilator therapy with tiotropium, salmeterol or ipratropium for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) from the perspective of the Spanish National Health System (NHS). A probabilistic Markov model was designed wherein patients moved between moderate, severe or very severe COPD and had the risk of exacerbation and death. Probabilities were derived from clinical trials. Spanish healthcare utilisation, costs and utilities were estimated for each COPD and exacerbation state. Outcomes were exacerbations, exacerbation-free months, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and cost(-effectiveness). The mean (SE) 5-year number of exacerbations was 3.50 (0.14) for tiotropium, 4.16 (0.40) for salmeterol and 4.71 (0.54) for ipratropium. The mean (SE) number of QALYs was 3.15 (0.08), 3.02 (0.15) and 3.00 (0.20), respectively. Mean (SE) 5-year costs were €6,424 (€305) for tiotropium, €5,869 (€505) for salmeterol, and €5,181 (€682) for ipratropium (2005 values). Ipratropium and tiotropium formed the cost-effectiveness frontier, with tiotropium being preferred when willingness to pay (WTP) exceeded €639 per exacerbation-free month and €8,157 per QALY. In Spain, tiotropium demonstrated the highest expected net benefit for ratios of the willingness to pay per QALY, well within accepted limits.

The risk of upcoding in casemix systems: A comparative study (Article)

2007-05-01T00:00:00Z

With the introduction of a diagnosis related group (DRG) classification system in the Netherlands in 2005 it has become relevant to investigate the risk of upcoding. The problem of upcoding in the US casemix system is substantial. In 2004, the US Centres for Medicare and Medicaid estimated that the total number of improper Medicare payments for the Prospective Payment system for acute inpatient care (both short term and long term) amounted to US$ 4.8 billion (5.2%). By comparing the casemix systems in the US, Australian and Dutch healthcare systems, this article illustrates why certain casemix systems are more open to the risk of upcoding than other systems. This study identifies various market, control and casemix characteristics determining the weaknesses of a casemix reimbursement system to upcoding. It can be concluded that fewer opportunities for upcoding occur in casemix systems that do not allow for-profit ownership and in which the coder's salary does not depend on the outcome of the classification process. In addition, casemix systems in which the first point in time of registration is at the beginning of the care process and in which there are a limited number of occasions to alter the registration are less vulnerable to the risk of upcoding. Finally, the risk of upcoding is smaller in casemix systems that use classification criteria that are medically meaningful and aligned with clinical practice. Comparing the US, Australian and Dutch systems the following conclusions can be drawn. Given the combined occurrences of for-profit hospitals and the use of the secondary diagnosis criterion to classify DRGs, the US casemix system tends to be more open to upcoding than the Australian system. The strength of the Dutch system is related to the detailed classification scheme, using medically meaningful classification criteria. Nevertheless, the detailed classification scheme also causes a weakness, because of its increased complexity compared with the US and Australian system. It is recommended that researchers and policy makers carefully consider all relevant market, control and casemix characteristics when developing and restructuring casemix reimbursement systems.

Principles and progress in healthcare cost analysis : applications to economic evaluations in COPD (Doctoral Thesis)

2004-12-09T00:00:00Z

Due to medicalisation, ageing of the population, and technological and pharmaceutical developments, \-\!estern countries have been confronted with a rapid increase in the costs of healthcare during the last decades. The armamentarium of the medical profession has grown enormously and medications have become available for diseases for which, until recently, treatment was not possible. These developments coincided with increasing pressure on budgets of national governments and the awareness that limits must be set to the growth of the costs of healthcare. Instead of the automatic influx of new technologies, the need arose to assess these technologies in terms of their costs and benefits in order to decide upon registration, reimbursement and pricing (Boer, 2002). These developments have led to a significant increase in the number and variety of economic evaluations in health care. Economic evaluations have been performed for many different kinds of health technologies, including organ transplantation, diagnostic devices and treatment with medicines. Economic evaluations \Vere either performed alongside prospective randomised controlled trials, as standalone studies based on retrospective data, or as modelling studies incorporating economic and clinical data from a variety of sources. \,Vith the increase of studies, several authors have expressed their worries about the quality and comparability of these economic evaluations.

One-year cost-effectiveness of tiotropium versus ipratropium to treat chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (Article)

2004-01-01T00:00:00Z

The aim of this paper is to assess the health economic consequences of substituting ipratropium with the new, once-daily bronchodilator tiotropium in patients with a diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This prospective cost-effectiveness analysis was performed alongside two 1-yr randomised, double-blind clinical trials in the Netherlands and Belgium. Patients had a diagnosis of COPD and a forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) < or = 65% predicted normal. Patients were randomised to tiotropium (18 microg once daily) or ipratropium (2 puffs of 20 microg administered four times daily) in a ratio of 2:1. The mean number of exacerbations was reduced from 1.01 in the ipratropium group (n = 175) to 0.74 in the tiotropium group (n = 344). The percentages of patients with a relevant improvement on the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) were 34.6% and 51.2%, respectively. Compared to ipratropium, the number of hospital admissions, hospital days and unscheduled visits to healthcare providers was reduced by 46%, 42% and 36% respectively. Mean annual healthcare costs including the acquisition cost of the study drugs were 1721 Euro (SEM 160) in the tiotropium group and 1,541 Euro (SEM 163) in the ipratropium group (difference 180 Euro). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were 667 Euro per exacerbation avoided and 1084 Euro per patient with a relevant improvement on the SGRQ. Substituting tiotropium for ipratropium in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients offers improved health outcomes and is associated with increased costs of 180 Euro per patient per year.