Rothman, P.

model business cycle time series nonlinear recession business cycle nonlinearity output policy shocks change series policy nonlinearity effect parameter university markov-switching paper business cycle country result shock author evidence interest time-varying autoregressive time-varying intercept literature topic function potter study expansion journal multivariate approach framework finding output growth policy rules example behavior markov-switching models housing completions nonlinear models referee neftc housing neftc i modeling intercept forecast inflation rate vfc model growth instability parameter changes group money floor friedman multivariate markov-switching procedures stock methodology time-varying models work regime nonlinear markov-switching models threshold autoregressive model procedure construction volume trend-cycle decomposition framework interest rate changes nonstationary time series ceiling home construction industry multivariate markov-switching model markov chain techniques period