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model parameter price effect value variable series distribution brand result probability trend journal table forecast section country function purchase cointegration household choice growth analysis number markov likelihood marketing estimate matrix period statistic speci category approach regime change process density recession consideration error bayesian level sample time series cycle forecasting cluster example promotion vector consumption paper 0.00 market estimation business equation specification regression figure factor unit roots variance segment growth rates share fication research observation markov trend order difference franse income target model parameters display econometrics