Sensier, M.

change volatility series deviation break result percent change model expansion price percent recession column business statistic table variance volatility breaks level interest rates interest cycle stock figure period 1960.1-2000.12 country variable production growth increase consumer sample decline evidence reduction index nonlinearity volatility changes number rejection money g 7 countries watson percent rejections significance output supw statistic parameter significance level consumer prices producer order difference suplr test business cycle sample period trade testing interval procedure time series nonlinear size distortions exchange specification exchange rates journal suplr variability ar model group unit labour costs business cycle nonlinearity nonlinear ar model indicator stock prices percentage change confidence canada