Groen, J.J.J.

model inflation flation forecast parameter variable panel cointegration forecasting exchange result section e 1 ik table vector break value regression series distribution phillip predictor density predictor variables deflator measure e 1 ik-r curve approach sample estimate speci fication exchange rate model pce deflator inflation cointegrating specification exchange rates journal country number price horizon statistic variance 0 0 probability cointegrating vectors change likelihood e 1 1 period uncertainty matrix regression parameters dollar exchange rates ratio cross-section 1.00 bmasb ^ ^ expectation correlation intercept function activity gdp deflator inflation model uncertainty reserve bank estimators vec y paper stock power watson growth order inflt e 1 ir panel vec models