http://repub.eur.nl/res/aut/4358/ List of Publications en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9934/ 2002-01-01T00:00:00Z BACKGROUND: The prognosis of ventricular arrhythmias among patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndromes is unknown. We studied the incidence, predictors, and outcomes of sustained ventricular arrhythmias in 4 large randomized trials of such patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We pooled the datasets of the Global Use of Streptokinase and tPA for Occluded Arteries (GUSTO)-IIb, Platelet Glycoprotein IIb/IIIa in Unstable Angina: Receptor Suppression Using Integrilin Therapy (PURSUIT), Platelet IIb/IIIa Antagonism for the Reduction of Acute Coronary Syndrome Events in a Global Organization Network (PARAGON)-A, and PARAGON-B trials (n=26 416). We identified independent predictors of ventricular fibrillation (VF) and ventricular tachycardia (VT) and compared the 30-day and 6-month mortality rates of patients who did (n=552) and did not (n=25 864) develop these arrhythmias during the index hospitalization. Independent predictors of in-hospital VF included prior hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, prior myocardial infarction, and ST-segment changes at presentation. Except for hypertension, these variables also independently predicted in-hospital VT. In Cox proportional-hazards modeling, in-hospital VF and VT were independently associated with 30-day mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 23.2 [95% CI, 18.1 to 29.8] for VF and HR, 7.6 [95% CI, 5.5 to 10.4] for VT) and 6-month mortality (HR, 14.8 [95% CI, 12.1 to 18.3] for VF and HR, 5.0 [95% CI, 3.8 to 6.5] for VT). These differences remained significant after excluding patients with heart failure or cardiogenic shock and those who died <24 hours after enrollment. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the use of effective therapies for non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndromes, ventricular arrhythmias in this setting are associated with increased 30-day and 6-month mortality. More effective therapies are needed to improve the survival of patients with these arrhythmias. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/13016/ 2001-09-04T00:00:00Z BACKGROUND: Clinical events committees (CEC) are used routinely to adjudicate suspected end-points in cardiovascular trials, but little information has been published about the various processes used. We reviewed results of the CEC process used to identify and adjudicate suspected end-point (post-enrolment) myocardial infarction (MI) in the large Platelet Glycoprotein IIb/IIIa in Unstable Angina: Receptor Suppression Using Integrilin (Eptifibatide) Therapy (PURSUIT) trial. METHODS: The PURSUIT trial randomised 10,948 patients with acute coronary syndromes to receive eptifibatide or placebo. A central adjudication process was established prospectively to identify all suspected MIs and adjudicate events based on protocol definitions of MI. Suspected MIs were identified by systematic review of data collection forms, cardiac enzyme results, and electrocardiograms. Two physicians independently reviewed all suspected events. If they disagreed whether a MI had occurred, a committee of cardiologists adjudicated the case. RESULTS: The CEC identified 5005 patients with suspected infarction (46%), of which 1415 (28%) were adjudicated as end-point infarctions. As expected, the process identified more end-point events than did the site investigators. Absolute and relative treatment effects of eptifibatide were smaller when using CEC-determined MI rates rather than site investigator-determined rates. The site-investigator reporting of MI and the CEC assessment of MI disagreed in 20% of the cases reviewed by the CEC. CONCLUSIONS: End-point adjudication by a CEC is important, to provide standardised, systematic, independent, and unbiased assessment of end-points, particularly in trials that span geographic regions and clinical practice settings. Understanding the CEC process used is important in the interpretation of trial results and event rates. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/5742/ 2001-09-04T00:00:00Z Abstract: Background Limited information has been published regarding how specific processes for event adjudication can affect event rates in trials. We reviewed nonfatal myocardial infarctions (MIs) reported by site investigators in the international Platelet Glycoprotein IIb/IIIa in Unstable Angina: Receptor Suppression Using Integrilin (Eptifibatide) Therapy (PURSUIT) trial and those adjudicated by a central clinical events committee (CEC) to determine the reasons for differences in event rates. Methods The PURSUIT trial randomised 10,948 patients with acute coronary syndromes to receive eptifibatide or placebo. The primary end-point was death or post-enrolment MI at 30 days as assessed by the CEC; this end-point was also constructed using site-reported events. The CEC identified suspected MIs by systematic review of clinical, cardiac enzyme, and lectrocardiographic data. Results The CEC identified 5005 (46%) suspected events, of which 1415 (28%) were adjudicated as MI. The site investigator and CEC assessments of whether a MI had occurred disagreed in 983 (20%) of the 5005 patients with suspected MI, mostly reflecting site misclassification of post-enrolment MIs (as enrolment MIs) or underreported periprocedural MIs. Patients for whom the CEC and site investigator agreed that no end-point MI had occurred had the lowest mortality at 30 days and between 30 days and 6 months, and those with agreement that a MI had occurred had the highest mortality. Conclusion CEC adjudication provides a standard, systematic, independent, and unbiased assessment of end-points, particularly for trials that span geographic regions and clinical practice settings. Understanding the review process and reasons for disagreement between CEC and site investigator assessments of MI is important to design future trials and interpret event rates between trials. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/5659/ 2001-07-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9378/ 2000-01-01T00:00:00Z BACKGROUND: Appropriate treatment policies should include an accurate estimate of a patient's baseline risk. Risk modeling to date has been underutilized in patients with acute coronary syndromes without persistent ST-segment elevation. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed the relation between baseline characteristics and the 30-day incidence of death and the composite of death or myocardial (re)infarction in 9461 patients with acute coronary syndromes without persistent ST-segment elevation enrolled in the PURSUIT trial [Platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa in Unstable angina: Receptor Suppression Using Integrilin (eptifibatide) Therapy]. Variables examined included demographics, history, hemodynamic condition, and symptom duration. Risk models were created with multivariable logistic regression and validated by bootstrapping techniques. There was a 3.6% mortality rate and 11.4% infarction rate by 30 days. More than 20 significant predictors for mortality and for the composite end point were identified. The most important baseline determinants of death were age (adjusted chi(2)=95), heart rate (chi(2)=32), systolic blood pressure (chi(2)=20), ST-segment depression (chi(2)=20), signs of heart failure (chi(2)=18), and cardiac enzymes (chi(2)=15). Determinants of mortality were generally also predictive of death or myocardial (re)infarction. Differences were observed, however, in the relative prognostic importance of predictive variables for mortality alone or the composite end point; for example, sex was a more important determinant of the composite end point (chi(2)=21) than of death alone (chi(2)=10). The accuracy of the prediction of the composite end point was less than that of mortality (C-index 0.67 versus 0.81). CONCLUSIONS: The occurrence of adverse events after presentation with acute coronary syndromes is affected by multiple factors. These factors should be considered in the clinical decision-making process. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/5542/ 1997-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/5550/ 1997-01-01T00:00:00Z We developed a logistic regression model with data from the GUSTO-I trial to predict mortality rate differences in individual patients who received accelerated tissue plasminogen activator (TPA) versus streptokinase treatment for acute myocardial infarction. A nomogram was developed from a reduced version of this model that approximated the underlying risk of patients treated with streptokinase, and thus the benefit of TPA. The 30-day mortality rate with accelerated TPA was 0.063 versus 0.073 with streptokinase and subcutaneously administered heparin and 0.074 with streptokinase and intravenously administered heparin. No baseline patient characteristics were significantly associated with a different relative effect of TPA. Older patients and those with anterior infarction, higher Killip classification (except Killip class IV), lower blood pressure, and increased heart rate had the greatest absolute benefit with accelerated TPA. Patients with acute myocardial infarction who had more high-risk characteristics derived a greater absolute benefit from treatment with accelerated TPA versus streptokinase. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/5553/ 1997-01-01T00:00:00Z BACKGROUND: Although the benefit of thrombolytic therapy in reducing mortality in acute myocardial infarction is well established, the types of bleeding and risk factors for bleeding are less well described in large trials. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed the baseline characteristics, outcomes, and incidence of bleeding by location, severity, and treatment assignment among 41,021 patients in the GUSTO-I trial of thrombolysis for acute myocardial infarction. Of the 40,903 patients for whom there were complete data, 1.2% suffered severe bleeding and 11.4% experienced moderate hemorrhage at a variety of sites. The most common sources of bleeding were procedure related. The thrombolytic regimen was strongly related to the incidence of bleeding; comparatively more bleeding was seen with the therapies of streptokinase plus intravenous heparin and the streptokinase and tissue plasminogen activator plus intravenous heparin combination. In multivariate analysis, the four most powerful independent predictors of hemorrhage were older age, lighter body weight, female sex, and African ancestry; they remained the most important predictors of bleeding when multivariate analysis was performed on patients who did not undergo invasive procedures. The presence of serious hemorrhage was associated with other undesirable outcomes (recurrent events, left ventricular dysfunction, arrhythmia, or stroke). CONCLUSIONS: Important predictors of bleeding in this population are increased age, lighter weight, female sex, African ancestry, and experiencing invasive procedures. Other nonhemorrhagic adverse clinical outcomes were associated with moderate and severe bleeding, which was in turn associated with increased length of hospital stay and mortality at 30 days. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/5525/ 1996-06-01T00:00:00Z OBJECTIVES: This study sought to examine the relations among patient characteristics, time to thrombolysis and outcomes in the international GUSTO-I trial. BACKGROUND: Studies have shown better left ventricular function and decreased infarct size as well as increased survival with earlier thrombolysis, but the relative benefits of various thrombolytic agents with earlier administration are uncertain. METHODS: We evaluated the relations of baseline characteristics to three prospectively defined time variables: symptom onset to treatment, symptom onset to hospital arrival (presentation delay) and hospital arrival to treatment (treatment delay). We also examined the relations of delays to clinical outcomes and to the relative 30-day mortality benefit with accelerated tissue-type plasminogen activator (t-PA) versus streptokinase. RESULTS: Female, elderly, diabetic and hypertensive patients had longer delays at all stages. Previous infarction or bypass surgery was an additional risk factor for treatment delay. Early thrombolysis was associated with lower overall mortality rate (< 2 h, 5.5%; > 4 h, 9.0%), but no additional relative benefit resulted from earlier treatment with accelerated t-PA versus streptokinase (p = 0.38). Longer presentation and treatment delays were both associated with increased mortality rate (presentation delay < 1 h, 5.6% and > 4 h, 8.6%; treatment delay < 1 h, 5.4%, and > 90 min, 8.1%). As time to treatment increased, the incidence of recurrent ischemia or reinfarction decreased, but the rates of shock, heart failure and stroke increased. CONCLUSIONS: Earlier treatment resulted in better outcomes, regardless of thrombolytic strategy. Elderly, female and diabetic patients were treated later, adding to their already substantial risk. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/5489/ 1995-01-01T00:00:00Z BACKGROUND. Patients with acute myocardial infarction who were treated with accelerated tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) (given over a period of 1 1/2 hours rather than the conventional 3 hours, and with two thirds of the dose given in the first 30 minutes) had a 30-day mortality that was 15 percent lower than that of patients treated with streptokinase in the Global Utilization of Streptokinase and Tissue Plasminogen Activator for Occluded Coronary Arteries (GUSTO) study. This was equivalent to an absolute decrease of 1 percent in 30-day mortality. We sought to assess whether the use of t-PA, as compared with streptokinase, is cost effective. METHODS. Our primary, or base-case, analysis of cost effectiveness used data from the GUSTO study and life expectancy projected on the basis of the records of survivors of myocardial infarction in the Duke Cardiovascular Disease Database. In the primary analysis, we assumed that there were no additional treatment costs due to the use of t-PA after the first year and that the comparative survival benefit of t-PA was still evident one year after enrollment. RESULTS. One year after enrollment, patients who received t-PA had both higher costs ($2,845) and a higher survival rate (an increase of 1.1 percent, or 11 per 1000 patients treated) than streptokinase-treated patients. On the basis of the projected life expectancy of each treatment group, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio--with both future costs and benefits discounted at 5 percent per year--was$32,678 per year of life saved. The use of t-PA was least cost effective in younger patients and most cost effective in older patients. At all ages, the use of t-PA in patients with anterior infarctions yielded more favorable cost-effectiveness values. In our secondary analyses, the cost-effectiveness values were most sensitive to a lowering of the projected long-term survival benefits of t-PA and to moderate or greater increases in the projected medical costs for patients in the t-PA group after the first year. In contrast, our results were not sensitive to even very unfavorable assumptions about the additional costs associated with the higher rate of disabling stroke that was noted in patients treated with t-PA in the GUSTO study. CONCLUSIONS. The cost effectiveness of treatment with accelerated t-PA rather than streptokinase compares favorably with that of other therapies whose added medical benefit for dollars spent is judged by society to be worthwhile. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/5495/ 1995-01-01T00:00:00Z BACKGROUND: Despite remarkable advances in the treatment of acute myocardial infarction, substantial early patient mortality remains. Appropriate choices among alternative therapies and the use of clinical resources depend on an estimate of the patient's risk. Individual patients reflect a combination of clinical features that influence prognosis, and these factors must be appropriately weighted to produce an accurate assessment of risk. Prior studies to define prognosis either were performed before widespread use of thrombolysis or were limited in sample size or spectrum of data. Using the large population of the GUSTO-I trial, we performed a comprehensive analysis of relations between baseline clinical data and 30-day mortality and developed a multivariable statistical model for risk assessment in candidates for thrombolytic therapy. METHODS AND RESULTS: For the 41,021 patients enrolled in GUSTO-I, a randomized trial of four thrombolytic strategies, relations between clinical descriptors routinely collected at initial presentation, and death within 30 days (which occurred in 7% of the population) were examined with both univariable and multivariable analyses. Variables studied included demographics, history and risk factors, presenting characteristics, and treatment assignment. Risk modeling was performed with logistic multiple regression and validated with bootstrapping techniques. Multivariable analysis identified age as the most significant factor influencing 30-day mortality, with rates of 1.1% in the youngest decile (< 45 years) and 20.5% in patients > 75 (adjusted chi 2 = 717, P < .0001). Other factors most significantly associated with increased mortality were lower systolic blood pressure (chi 2 = 550, P < .0001), higher Killip class (chi 2 = 350, P < .0001), elevated heart rate (chi 2 = 275, P < .0001), and anterior infarction (chi 2 = 143, P < .0001). Together, these five characteristics contained 90% of the prognostic information in the baseline clinical data. Other significant though less important factors included previous myocardial infarction, height, time to treatment, diabetes, weight, smoking status, type of thrombolytic, previous bypass surgery, hypertension, and prior cerebrovascular disease. Combining prognostic variables through logistic regression, we produced a validated model that stratified patient risk and accurately estimated the likelihood of death. CONCLUSIONS: The clinical determinants of mortality in patients treated with thrombolytic therapy within 6 hours of symptom onset are multifactorial and the relations complex. Although a few variables contain most of the prognostic information, many others contribute additional independent prognostic information. Through consideration of multiple characteristics, including age, medical history, physiological significance of the infarction, and medical treatment, the prognosis of an individual patient can be accurately estimated. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/4519/ 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z BACKGROUND. Directional coronary atherectomy is a new technique of coronary revascularization by which atherosclerotic plaque is excised and retrieved from target lesions. With respect to the rate of restenosis and clinical outcomes, it is not known how this procedure compares with balloon angioplasty, which relies on dilation of the plaque and vessel wall. We compared the rate of restenosis after angioplasty with that after atherectomy. METHODS. At 35 sites in the United States and Europe, 1012 patients were randomly assigned to either atherectomy (512 patients) or angioplasty (500 patients). The patients underwent coronary angiography at base line and again after six months; the paired angiograms were quantitatively assessed at one laboratory by investigators unaware of the treatment assignments. RESULTS. Stenosis was reduced to 50 percent or less more often with atherectomy than with angioplasty (89 percent vs. 80 percent; P < 0.001), and there was a greater immediate increase in vessel caliber (1.05 vs. 0.86 mm, P < 0.001). This was accompanied by a higher rate of early complications (11 percent vs. 5 percent, P < 0.001) and higher in-hospital costs ($11,904 vs $10,637; P = 0.006). At six months, the rate of restenosis was 50 percent for atherectomy and 57 percent for angioplasty (P = 0.06). However, the probability of death or myocardial infarction within six months was higher in the atherectomy group (8.6 percent vs. 4.6 percent, P = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS. Removing coronary artery plaque with atherectomy led to a larger luminal diameter and a small reduction in angiographic restenosis, the latter being confined largely to the proximal left anterior descending coronary artery. However, atherectomy led to a higher rate of early complications, increased cost, and no apparent clinical benefit after six months of follow-up. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/5433/ 1992-01-01T00:00:00Z The Global Utilization of Streptokinase and Tissue Plasminogen Activator for Occluded Coronary Arteries (GUSTO) trial is a large scale international trial of new myocardial reperfusion strategies. The primary hypothesis is that early and sustained coronary artery recanalization will be associated with a significant reduction in mortality. The four regimens that are being tested are 1) streptokinase with subcutaneous heparin; 2) streptokinase with intravenous heparin; 3) accelerated recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator (rt-PA) with intravenous heparin; and 4) combination streptokinase, rt-PA and intravenous heparin. The planned recruitment of 41,600 patients in 1,500 sites from 15 countries is expected to be completed by December 1992 and will enable detection of a 15% reduction or 1% absolute difference in mortality compared with that associated with standard therapy (streptokinase and subcutaneous heparin). In designing the trial, two important issues were directly addressed. First, a strategy was developed to provide assurance of patient safety during large scale investigational use of an aggressive thrombolytic regimen. This includes fascimile transmission of a one-page safety summary form to the Data Coordinating Center within 24 h of death or discharge, acceptance of the concept of "net clinical benefit" and close surveillance of the trial's progress by the independent Data and Safety Monitoring Committee. Second, to avoid potential conflict of interest beyond elimination of any position of financial equity, the Steering Committee unanimously voted to prohibit any honoraria for speaking engagements, payment for consultancy or travel or reimbursement of any kind from any of the five corporate sponsors until 1 year after publication of the results. Incorporation of these approaches may facilitate the design of future large scale randomized trials in cardiovascular medicine.