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mortality trend cohort disease country death cancer cause change decline mortality trends netherland effect study population level period european countries birth mortality decline women life expectancy denmark stroke france table health european correlation heart all-cause norway finland coding result sweden increase all-cause mortality england future number wales pattern model stomach cancer factor analysis stomach cancer mortality patient birth cohorts mortality rates group condition stagnation stomach expectancy chapter mortality selection association cause-specific selection revision smoking stroke mortality determinant cause-specific mortality cohort effects development kunst ae analyses cohort patterns risk factors middle age icd revisions cd 81 end-of-life decisions difference deviance reduction cd 19