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return model portfolio performance period result value estimate table asset journal market sample crisis effect investor stock probability persistence panel strategy copula investment quarter estate parameter finance number decile 0.00 month variable distribution order management deficit error forecast section volatility estimation regime coefficient observation approach pecking paper ratio cash flows allocation verbeek weight alpha dependence cohort equity factor style look-ahead bias manager function regression debt capacity analysis study pecking order theory transaction costs growth liability variance estimator correlation theory difference equation figure measure financing family leverage