http://repub.eur.nl/res/aut/562/ List of Publications en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8104/ 1998-01-01T00:00:00Z Reprint of the orginally published version in International Social Science Journal (UNESCO), Vol. 11, No.3, 1959, pp. 351-360. In French: La Planification de la Politique Economique, Revue Internationale des Sciences Sociales, 1998, pp. 383-392 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15471/ 1996-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7941/ 1995-01-01T00:00:00Z The author considers the problem of the duration of development and its consequences for development assistance, in the developing as well as developed countries. Emphasis is given to the influence of development aid and it is argued that the time dimension has important policy implications and requires further thoroughgoing theoretical analysis. Also published in: Kurt Dopfer (Ed.), The Global Dimension of Economic Evolution: knowledge variety and diffusion in economic growth and development, Physica Verlag, Heidelberg, 1995, pp. 1153-159 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/17747/ 1994-01-01T00:00:00Z Een politiek testament voor de een, een agenda voor toekomstig onderzoek voor de ander. De economen Jan Tinbergen, deze zomer overleden, en Jan Berkouwer schreven een boek met een optimistische visie op het democratisch socialisme. Een keuze voor wereldwijde solidariteit, een pleidooi voor een andere levensstijl. (Also: English summary (The Future of Democratic Socialism), Barjesteh, Meuwes & Co, Rotterdam, 1994, 56 p.) http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7946/ 1994-01-01T00:00:00Z Special contribution in Chapter 4, Human Development Report 1994. Also published in: Internationale Samenwerking, Special Issue, November 1994, p. 15 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15470/ 1993-03-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10054/ 1992-01-01T00:00:00Z In the last five years humanity has become faced with the problem of the optimal socioeconomic order more clearly than ever. After the confrontation of capitalism and socialism, which was the core of the Marxist thesis, the fact transpired that capitalism was not the optimal order. It was eliminated in two different ways. In Western economies capitalism was reformed stepwise by pulling its sharpest teeth, while maintaining the stimulating forces in the markets. As to communist economies - the Soviet Union changed capitalism via the 1917 October revolution and China followed. In 1986, Mikhail Gorbachev's view that the communist system did not work was accepted by the Soviet Union communist party congress. Now, in 1992, the world is discussing, more urgently than ever, what the best ('optimal') socio-economic order is; how much reintroduction of capitalism is necessary to attain the best order? This essay discusses the simplest possible model that can contribute to the discussion. The advantage of building the simplest possible model is twofold. Firstly, such a model can state the nature or essence of an optimal order. Secondly, it can indicate the order of magnitude of the main characteristic of an optimal order. The main characteristic - the question that separated socialists from other politicians - is the redistribution of income. Within a single nation, redistribution is achieved by taxes and social security contributions. In the world economy, redistribution is accomplished by development assistance and trade policy. In this essay the language used is that of the industrial economy, in which the two groups considered are labour and capital. The model can be translated into another in which the two groups are the developed and underdeveloped countries. It may even be translated into a security model of two powers, in which redistribution is obtained by security assistance (see J. Tinbergen, World Security and Equity, Aldershot, 1990), or a colonial system. In the last version not the common welfare will be maximized, but the welfare of the colonial powers, which leads to negative redistribution (the exploitation of the colonies). http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7953/ 1992-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15533/ 1991-08-28T00:00:00Z Het ontwikkelingsproces is het afgelopen jaar niet versneld, ondanks het eigen belang dat westerse landen hebben bij het geven van meer ontwikkelingshulp. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10055/ 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z Integration is the combination of previously sovereign areas into a larger sovereign area. Its opposite is disintegration or secession. Throughout history a large number of both has occurred, but the integration process has been stronger and the net result is a considerable degree of integration. Two main measures may be used to characterize the phenomenon: the reduction per annum r of the number of sovereign areas and the growth per annum g of the number of areas which become member of the larger area into which they have been integrated. Both r and g are fractions; in r the numerator is the new number of areas and the denominator the previous number. In g the numerator and denominator are, respectively, the denominator and the numerator of r. If the process takes more than one year, say five years, the fifth root of the fraction must be taken; likewise for other figures. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/17708/ 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z (Republished in 2008 by ‘VECON, Vereniging van Leraren in de Economisch/Maatschappelijke Vakken, Rotterdam’ on the occasion of the 17e AAAE Conferentie ‘The Profits of Partnership’, The Hague). http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7954/ 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z The author believes in the measurability of welfare (also called satisfaction or utility). Measure- ments have been made in the United States (Jorgenson and collaborators), France (Allais), and the Netherlands (Van Praag and collaborators). The Israeli sociologists Levy and Guttman have shown that numerous noneconomic variables are among the determinants of welfare. The determinants are numerous; the author proposes a list of about fifty. Various mathematical functions have been proposed, of which the logarithm of the determinants shows the highest correlation with welfare, as measured. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7955/ 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z Tinbergen (1988) describes his method of conducting economic research. In contrast to Dopfer (1988), the subject of mechanics is avoided, and the method deals only with economics. The purpose of economic research is seen as either: 1. an attempt to explain an economic phenomenon, or 2. the recommendation of an economic policy or structure. No use is made of any philosophy of science concepts. An important characteristic of Tinbergen's views is that he deals with qualitative and quantitative aspects of economic research. The difference between quantitative and qualitative problems is that the former are solved completely only after measurement and mathematical solution with the aid of a model, whereas the latter do not require the tools of measurement and mathematical solution. In a reply, Dopfer comments on Tinbergen's belief that both quantitative and qualitative research is important in economics. He notes that such an insight can have various interpretations, depending on the viewpoint of the researcher. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15516/ 1990-11-07T00:00:00Z Dat de vermindering van het inkomensverschil tussen ontwikkelde en onderontwikkelde landen, het ontwikkelingsproces, een lange tijd zal vergen weten we. Maar hoe lang dat proces zal duren is lets waarover weinig wordt gesproken. Het blijft bij vage uitdrukkingen, zoals eeuwen en decennia. In dit artikel wil ik trachten om met wat concretere getallen te komen. Dat wil overigens niet zeggen dat deze al te letterlijk genomen moeten worden. Wij zullen het resultaat in drie fasen bespreken. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15518/ 1990-09-19T00:00:00Z In ESB van 15 augustus 1990 uit collega W. Brand bedenkingen tegen de opzet van de vereniging Economen voor Vrede. Hij verdenkt de vereniging van vooropgestelde gevoelens jegens het militaire apparaat in plaats van een wetenschappeiijke houding van analyse van de problemen van veiligheid. Dit laatste echter is juist wat de vereniging, blijkens artikel 3 van haar statuten, nastreeft. De veiligheid die door Brand terecht als de centrale doelstelling wordt genoemd, wordt in artikel 3 duidelijk vermeld. Brand's toevoeging dat het niet om vrede, maar om veiligheid gaat doet wat vreemd aan. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15529/ 1990-09-19T00:00:00Z De mislukking van de centraal geplande volkshuishouding heeft velen, economen en politic!, tot het aanbevelen van vrije markten geleid. Juist na de herdenking van Adam Smith was dat een zegetocht van het beroemde stelsel van 'laissez faire' en vooral liberalen (in de Europese zin) voelden zich de overwinnaars van de strijd tussen centrale planning en 'laissez faire. In English: Should All Markets Be Free? In: Soumitra Sharma (Ed.), Development Policy, St. Martin’s Press, New York / Macmillan, London, 1992, pp. 81-82 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/17561/ 1990-01-01T00:00:00Z A very neat illustration of the skilful use of small, manageable, world models to consider pressing policy questions of great current relevance. Ron Smith, The Economic Journal" Jan Tinbergen, in this book as in his earlier work, has the courage to address central issues. Dietrich Fisher, Journal of Economic Literature "...here is an important, thought provoking, but technical work which should achieve at least one of its principal aims, to stimulate further research into the whole topic. K. Jackson, Kyklos This book provides a quantitative foundation for evaluating the conflicting aims of security and equality. Professor Tinbergen presents a number of econometric models which overturn many long-held beliefs about the relationship between military policy and development co-operation. His findings demonstrate that in order to achieve reasonable targets of welfare and security, military expenditure should be considerably reduced with development assistance being increased by amounts of the same order. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15527/ 1989-12-06T00:00:00Z De initiatieven die de laatste jaren doorde huidige secretaris-generaal van de Communistische partij (intussen ook president) van de Sovjetunie zijn genomen, hebben nieuwe mogelijkheden geschapen tot verbetering van de verhouding tussen Oost en West. Die initiatieven liggen in hoofdzaak op twee gebieden. In de eerste plaats op dat van de wapenvermindering en in de tweede plaats op dat van het maatschappelijke stelsel van de Sovjetunie. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15517/ 1989-07-12T00:00:00Z In ESB van 3 mei vraagt collega Heertje terecht aandacht voor het vraagstuk van de verdeling van de beschikbare natuurlljke hulpbronnen tussen de thans levende mensheid en onze nakomelingen. Om het zeer grote belang van een bevredigende oplossing van dit vraagstuk te onderstepen, neb ik in deze notitie de eenvoudigst denkbare versie waarin het zich voordoet samengevat. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7956/ 1989-01-01T00:00:00Z I am pleased and grateful for the opportunity science. to present here some remarks on the interrelation-Generally speaking this subject of ‘science ships of the forecasting capacity of sciences. I geography’ deserves a more systematic treatment hope that my remarks may be considered a useful than is usual. An example or common practice is comment on forecasting; I don’t claim any origi-given in table 1, which is used by the Royal Dutch nality, though. Others have worked on this subject Academy of Sciences. A systematic subdivision more than I have: see, e.g., Intriligator (1988), must satisfy the well-known conditions that the Nordhaus (1987), Theil (1958, 1966), to mention a individual elementary areas few. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7957/ 1989-01-01T00:00:00Z is argued that action can be undertaken to reduce unemployment. However, such action needs to be taken on a basis of internationally coordinated policies to combat unemployment. Initially, there is a need for the EEC member countries to formulate a coherent programme to deal with this problem. Yet this is unlikely to be adequate. The intriguing idea is floated that the EEC countries can learn from the policies pursued in Japan. Ultimately, it is hoped that cooperation between the EEC and Japan can form the basis of an adventurous initiative to attack unemployment. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15530/ 1988-04-13T00:00:00Z In 1982 werd door de gezamenlijke NAVO-landen 5% van het bruto nationale produkt aan militaire uitgaven besteed en door de landen van het Warschau-pact 9%. Tegelijkertijd bedragen de uitgaven van deze landen aan ontwikkelingshulp nog geen 0,5% van het bnp. Het is evident dat de Internationale spanningen aanzienlijk zouden kunnen worden verminderd als deze cijfers anders zouden liggen. De auteur werkt - samen met anderen - al enige tijd aan modellen waarin de relatie tussen ontwapening en ontwikkeling centraal staat. In dit artikel worden enkele van de tot nu bereikte resultaten gepresenteerd. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7958/ 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15522/ 1987-11-18T00:00:00Z (commentaar op J.J.M. Theeuwes ‘Van Dingen die Stabiel Zijn’) http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10056/ 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z In the last few decades an increasing number of economists have contributed to new methods of welfare (or utility) measurement. As set out in this journal (Tinbergen, 1985) three groups of economists have been active in this field since 1968, initially relatively independently; an American, a British and a Dutch group, of which the leading economists were Dale W. Jorgenson (Harvard), George W. McKenzie (Cambridge, UK) and Bernard M.S. van Praag (Erasmus). Additional imaginative contributions have been made since by several other economists, mentioned in my 1985 note. 1 In that same note I mentioned a lacuna in the Anglo-Saxon method: it considers utility derived from consumption but not utility (positive or negative) from work or from risk taking. The empirical research by the Dutch group implies all sources of satisfaction (in this article a third word for utility). The present article is an attempt to fill part of the lacuna stated, but simplified to the extreme, with the intention to clarify the essence of the additional aspect. Among the simplifications one must be mentioned in advance: the model submitted is static. This may be a disadvantage to some (or many) readers; and it may be avoided. Some remarks about a dynamic model will be made. Since the static version already introduces a number of new concepts the present author tentatively starts with the static version. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/17362/ 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z In Dutch: Wapens en Welzijn: integratie van veiligheidsbeleid in het sociaal-economisch beleid, Staatsuitgeverij, The Hague, 1987, 188 p. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/17658/ 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z Aan de orde komen het ontstaan van milieu-, armoede- en vredesproblemen en mogelijke oplossingen daarvan. De bekende econoom prof. dr. Jan Tinbergen (Nobelprijswinnaar economie 1969) geeft in dit boek aan hoe naar zijn idee drie mondiale problemen (toenemende dreiging van wapengeweld, milieuverwoesting en immense armoede in de Derde Wereld) tot oplossing kunnen worden gebracht. Deel I omvat een schets van de geschiedenis van onze planeet, afgesloten met een samenvatting van de drie genoemde wereldproblemen. In deel II wordt het meest gewenste beheer van onze aarde besproken; eerst worden de doelen van natuur- en miliebeheer, van sociaaleconomische ontwikkeling en van een positieve vrede afzonderlijk en in hun onderlinge samenhang uiteengezet. Daarna worden de middelen van een goed beheer op de diverse overheidsniveaus aangegeven, waarbij vooral aan (nieuwe) internationale instellingen een belangrijke rol wordt toegekend. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15520/ 1986-08-13T00:00:00Z Aan het einde van de tweede wereldoorlog zijn twee federalistische bewegingen ontstaan, die van de Europese en die vandeWereldfederalisten. De Europese Beweging sloeg na korte twijfel aan en de Europese Gemeenschap is nu niet meer weg te denken, ook al zijn ingrijpende hervormingen nog nodig. De Europese Federalisten werden na 1950 als realisten beschouwd en zij worden in de laatste jaren krachtig gesteund door topfiguren uit het bedrijfsleven. Philipsvoorman W. Dekker oefent zelfs pressie uit op de betrokken regeringen om krachtiger op te treden en wie zou zich daarover niet verheugen! http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15521/ 1985-12-18T00:00:00Z Enige tijd geleden neb ik gepleit 1) voor het opnemen in de economische wetenschap van militaire vraagstukken. Het hoofdargument daarvoor zou men ook aldus kunnen formuleren dat militaire vraagstukken te belangrijk zijn om te worden overgelaten aan militairen en de politic! die het buitenlands beleid bepalen. (Deze laatste twee groepen worden immers geacht dezelfde doelen na te streven met behulp van verschillende middelen.) In deze column stel ik mij voor dat pleidooi nog eens te herformuleren en voorts een toepassing van deze economische behandeling aan te bieden op het lange-termijndoel van vredespolitiek op wereldvlak. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15513/ 1985-02-20T00:00:00Z De toenemende militarisering van het maatschappelijk leven vereist een andere houding van de economische wetenschap ten aanzien van de verschijnselen van oorlogvoering en oorlogsvoorbereiding. Deze verschijnselen moeten niet langer als externe gegevens worden behandeld, doch binnen het gebied van de economic behandeld worden. Voornaamste motivering daartoe is de steeds sterkere invloed op het welzijn van de mensheid, het steeds hogere beslag op schaarse middelen en de toenemende invloed op het produktieproces. De economische wetenschap heeft reeds meer zulke uitbreidingen ondergaan. Oorlog kan zowel als een bedrijfstak alsook als een vorm van sociale politick worden behandeld. Dit wordt door voorbeelden toegelicht. De bijdrage tot het welzijn is sterk negatief en alternatieve activiteiten verdienen sterk de voorkeur. Op middellange termijn zal het overleg tussen de supermogendheden, op lange termijn wereldintegratie tot het uitschakelen van militaire activiteit kunren bijdragen. De economische wetenschap moet aan deze processen haar bijdragen leveren. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10058/ 1985-01-01T00:00:00Z After the Pivogian era the tendency of the majority of economists was to adhere to Pareto's view that utility is not measurable. (In this note the words utility and welfare will be considered as synonymous). Recently in the Netherlands measurability has been defended again, by Bernard M.S. van Praag and his school (including A. Kapteyn, A. Kouwenhoven, Th. Goedhart, T.J. Wansbeek, F,G. van Herwaarden, J. Buyze, H v.d. Stadt, and others) and by this author. Van Praag and his pupils made considerable contributions to both theory and measurement; the present author concentrated on the application only. The essence of their empirical work consists of direct interviewing of very large numbers of European consumers. The question consists of indicating the income intervals in which the interviewee would feel resp. 'excellent,' 'good,' 'amply sufficient,' etc . . . . down to 'very bad' (9 intervals). http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15467/ 1984-06-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10061/ 1984-01-01T00:00:00Z A still useful definition of a collective good as distinguished from an individual good is that its 'consumption' by one individual does not reduce the possibility for other individuals to 'consume' it (Samuelson, 1954). A few examples are a TV broadcast, the police and a nation's highway system (excluding toll ways). In section 4 the complete set of collective goods will be discussed. Of the three examples mentioned the TV broadcast is closest to apurely collective good. The other two usually are close, but not always. Extended riots may require so much of the police force that police are not available for a case of theft. On the first day of a holiday period highways may be overcrowded and not available for an additional car. In the latter two cases we will speak of part-collective goods; these will be discussed in sections 3 through 8. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10062/ 1984-01-01T00:00:00Z Also published in: Jan Tinbergen, Production, Income and Welfare: the search for an optimal social order, Wheatsheaf Books, Brighton, 1985, pp. 123-130 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7959/ 1984-01-01T00:00:00Z Narrates the life and works of the author, a Nobel laureate and an emeritus professor of economics at Erasmus University in Rotterdam, The Netherlands. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15528/ 1983-11-30T00:00:00Z De twee redactionele beschouwingen in ESB van 24 en 31 augustus jl. vormen een goed uitgangspunt voor een hernieuwde discussie over het nut - positief of negatief - van economietrische modellen voor de economische politiek, de wetenschap en het onderwijs. Als redacteur-secretaris Van der Geest mij niet uitgenodigd had, zou ik eerst hebben gewacht of andere college's zijn uitdaging zouden hebben aanvaard. Nu hij aan een aantal personen heeft gevraagd om te reageren, doe ik graag mee. Daarbij behoeft geen van ons te proberen alle kanten van de vraag te belichten; dat houdt onze bijdragen ook leesbaarder dan een streven naar volledigheid. Ik beperk mij daarom tot een paar opraerkingen die bij mij opkwamen. Gemakshalve geef ik hun een nummer. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15519/ 1983-04-13T00:00:00Z Economen worden verondersteld te denken en het resultaat daarvan aan te bieden aan wie hen als raadgevers hebben gekozen. Dat laatste zou men een ,,poging tot overdracht van kennis" kunnen noemen. Het is misschien de moeite waard om enkele ervaringen, opgedaan tijdens deze twee processen — denken en proberen over te dragen — neer te schrijven. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15515/ 1982-12-01T00:00:00Z De huidige noodtoestand maakt het tot een plicht voor economisten om op te houden met confrontaties tussen monetaristen, aanbodeconomen, anti-reguleringseconomen en keynesianen. De essentie van wetenschappelijk werk is om uit een these (b.v. die van Keynes) en een of meer antithesen (b.v. die van Friedman of een der andere moderne stromingen) een synthese af te leiden. De politici en de burgers hebben het recht dat te eisen. Criterium voor een synthese is een betere verklaring voor wat er in het (recente) verleden is gebeurd. Door elk der genoemde stromingen zijn daartoe bijdragen geleverd, maar geen ervan heeft de wijsheid in pacht. De toetsing aan het criterium kan beginnen met submodellen, maar het laatste woord is aan een volledig model. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15465/ 1982-09-01T00:00:00Z Previous tests of the marginal productivity theory have been criticized on several grounds reviewed by the authors. One important deficiency has been the small number of factor inputs entered in the production functions. In 1978 Gottschalk suggested a method to estimate production functions with many inputs by assuming that the production process can be split into subprocesses. This reduces the probability of multicollinearity. The authors show that the method depends on an additional assumption. Tinbergen has developed a method for avoiding this assumption. Its application to American cross-section (state) data did not alter the estimated coefficients greatly. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15512/ 1982-04-21T00:00:00Z In dit artikel wordt de stalling verdedigd dat een stimulering van de bedrijvigheid moet worden ondernomen op hoger dan nationaal niveau. De auteur ziet de besluitvormende infrastructuur van de Europese Gemeenschappen als de daartoe meest geeigende, doch onvoldoende gebruikte instantie. Terwijl een deel van het bedrijfsleven met internationale integratie verreweg vooroploopt en ook de vakbeweging de noodzaak van Europese integratie steeds meer heeft ingezien — het Europees Vakverbond congresseert deze week in Den Haag — schieten de tegenwoordige regeringen in vergelijking daarbij — en ook vergeleken bij de houding van de grondleggers van de EG — ernstig te kort. Franse initiatieven geven echter enige hoop en verdienen steun. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15464/ 1981-08-01T00:00:00Z This paper recalls some early work of the Dutch pioneers of long-wave research which anticipated many of the contemporary debates. Various explanations which have been advanced for the existence of long waves are reviewed, and the applicability of long-wave theories in a number of contexts is examined. Also published in: Christopher Freeman (Ed.), Long Wave Theory. International Library of Critical Writings in Economics Vol.69, Elgar Publishers, Cheltenham, 1996, pp. 68-73 Original title: De Zogenaamde Lange Golven van Kondratiev (In Dutch), Ekonomies Bulletin, Vol. 11, No.6, March 1980, pp. 2-5 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15531/ 1981-06-17T00:00:00Z In ESB van 27 mei komt dr. A. E. van Niekerk (,,Het Brandt-rapport is vices noch vis", biz. 516-518) o.m. terug op mijn bespreking in dit blad (5 maart 1980, biz. 263-270) van het rapport- Brandt. Naar zijn mening is er in Nederland niet voldoende kritisch over gedacht. Hij had graag ook in ons land meer kritiek gezien, waarschijnlijk om bepaalde regeringen van ontwikkelde landen een alibi te verschaffen voor him tekortschietende gedrag. Als we overigens in de politick moesten wachten tot de wetenschappers en andere deskundigen het eens zijn, zou er nooit iets gebeuren. Dit verlangen naar meer kritiek — in belangrijker landen dan Nederland al behoorlijk gespuid — lijkt mij contraproduktief. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15463/ 1981-03-01T00:00:00Z In this essay in honour of Professor P. Hennipman the latter's clarity and precision of expression are chosen as an example of how to avoid misunderstanding of his publications. As counterexamples some twenty-odd misunderstandings are set out by the essay's author in the field of income distribution policies, ranging from that specific subject to the theory of economic policy, to economic science and to science as a whole. Several of these misunderstandings are due to the essay's author, while others seem to prevail either among the general public or among scientists. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7964/ 1981-01-01T00:00:00Z Lecture to the Memory of Alfred Nobel, Oslo, December 12, 1969. Originally published in: Les Prix Nobel en 1969, The Nobel Foundation, Stockholm, 1970, pp. 243-252. Also published in: Assar Lindbeck (Ed.), Nobel Lectures in Economic Sciences 1969-1980 Vol. 1, World Scientific, Singapore, 1992, pp. 40-50. The Spanish translation ‘El Uso de Modelos: experiencia y perspectivas’ was published in: Romero Kolbeck (Ed.), Los Premios Nobel de Economía 1969-1977, Fondo de Cultura Economía, Mexico, 1978, pp. 65-78 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7965/ 1981-01-01T00:00:00Z Also published in: Jan Tinbergen, Production, Income and Welfare: the search for an optimal social order, Wheatsheaf Books, Brighton, 1985, pp. 131-142 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15525/ 1980-11-26T00:00:00Z In ESB van 12 november (blz. 1253) wijdt, tot mijn vreugde, de redacteursecretaris enige beschouwingen aan het hierboven genoemde plan van het kwartet Den Uyl, Pronk, Kok en ondergetekende. Enkele van de gemaakte opmerkingen zijn, naar mijn smaak, echter weinig ter zake, terwijl een paar hoofdpunten onbesproken blijven. Dat moet aan een onvoldoende duidelijke presentatie liggen; daarom een poging tot verduidelijking van onze bedoeling. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15524/ 1980-03-05T00:00:00Z Onlangs verscheen het rapport van de commissie-Brandt over het internationale ontwikkelingsvraagstuk. In dit rapport wordt opnieuw de dringende noodzaak beklemtoond van een internationaal gecoördineerd beleid om de verhoudingen tussen rijke en arme landen te veranderen. Dit artikel bevat een bespreking van de belangrijkste aanbevelingen die in het rapport worden gedaan. De auteur besluit met een pleidooi voor een wereldwerkgelegenheidsprogramma dat wordt ondersteund door een positief herstructureringsbeleid in de rijke landen. Also published in: Maatschappij-Belangen: tijdschrift van de Nederlandsche Maatschappij voor Nijverheid en Handel, Vol. 144 (1980), No.12, pp. 611-613 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7966/ 1980-01-01T00:00:00Z Also published in: Jan Tinbergen, Production, Income and Welfare: the search for an optimal social order, Wheatsheaf Books, Brighton, 1985, pp. 101-110 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15359/ 1978-12-01T00:00:00Z Jencks's well-known sociological path analysis connecting parental socio-economic characteristics and some ability measure of the person investigated with his or her schooling, occupation and income is available for the United States, Sweden and the Netherlands in various versions. For the United Kingdom the analysis has now been applied to the new General Household Survey, supplying over 5000 observations. This article compares the various results and offers a few alternative models, using the American and British data. These alternatives do not offer, in the British case, improvements in variance explained. Moreover, most regression coefficients show wide variations between countries. A suggestion for improvement is derived from a recent study using at least three occupation characteristics. We are grateful to the British Office of Population Census and Surveys for making available to us the data from which the UK results reported in this article were obtained. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15358/ 1977-09-01T00:00:00Z As a follow-up of his book on income distribution the author reformulates his version on the scarcity theory of income from productive contributions. The need to introduce into an earnings theory several job characteristics, non-cognitive as well as cognitive, and the corresponding personality traits is stressed, the latter subdivided into innate and learnable capabilities. The theory is presented in two alternative mathematical versions: one where job and person characteristics are continuous and one where they have discrete values and their frequencies assume continuous values. Although, mainly in the United States, numerous empirical inquiries have been made, job characteristics and the corresponding personal characteristics have not been included in sufficient number. I want to express my profound gratitude to Professor Robert H. Haveman, who not only published a deep-delving review article on my book Income Distribution: Analysis and Policies but also commented on an earlier text of the present article. I also owe a great debt to Professor Jan Pen who in a long series of discussions challenged a number of my concepts and figures. Finally I want to thank Dr. S. K. Kuipers for helpful comments on an earlier draft. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7967/ 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z Also published in: H. Munoz (Ed.), From Dependency to Development, Westview Press, Boulder, 1981, pp. 161-172 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7968/ 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z In Western countries the share of incomes form assets in national income has fallen considerably during the last century. Inequality in labour incomes is much more important. Two types of labour show relatively high incomes: the professions and managers. incomes of the former show along-term relative decline due to a sharp increase in university graduates. The author offers a crude attempt to compare manager incomes in the U.S.A. with the sine of the enterprise they are heading. He then poses question whether manager incomes may be reduced further in comparison to average incomes by increasing their supply. This depends on whether manager capabilities are Iearnable or mainly innate. He concludes with some remarks on the demand for managers in a post-industrial society. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7969/ 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Data on income after tax, schooling completed, job held, age, and ‘level of satisfaction’ of 2663 members of the Dutch Consumer Union have been used to estimate regression equations of two types. Type I may be called a specification of a utility function, Type II an ‘earnings function’ (where income after tax was used as earnings). For both types a number of alternatives were estimated both with regard to mathematical shape and with regard to variables included. Defining equitable or justified income differences as differences which do not change the level of satisfaction, a formula for equitable incomes for given combinations of job, schooling and age can be derived from Type I equations. All regression coefficients are found to be lower than the corresponding earnings function coefficients. The latter can then be decomposed into a ‘compensatory’ component and a ‘scarcity rent’ component. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7970/ 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z In October the third report to the Club of Rome was published under the title Reshaping the International Order (RIO).1 It was formulated by a group of about twenty experts from developing as well as developed countries, including one from Romania. The initiative to undertake this study of the international order was taken by the Club of Rome Board, especially by its chairman Dr Aurelio Peccei and the study was financed by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs at the initiative of the Minister for Development Cooperation, Jan Pronk. The report was presented to the Club of Rome in a meeting at Algiers, hosted by the Algerian Government, 25–28 October 1976. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7971/ 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z This article examines the demand-supply theory of incomes tested by the 1970 U.S. census figures. Contrary to previous U.S. population censuses, the 1970 volumes include one in which, for a large of occupational groups, tables are published showing earnings by education classes and age groups for race and sex groups. Earnings for the modal occupational group were considered as income for each education category. The supply factor was taken equal to the numbers of persons in each educational category employed in 1969 in specification of the theory. The crucial assumption made was that the educational structure of employment within each main occupational group was the same as in 1969. In both specifications the demand factor was estimated by a projection, five years ahead, of employment in each of the educational groups, using the same method as just described for specification of the supply factor, but assuming a lead instead of a lag. The desired composition of the labour force as seen by employers was derived from plans for the future taking into account changes in occupations to be expected on the basis of the trend 1950-70, but assuming the same educational structure within each of the main occupational groups. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15356/ 1975-09-01T00:00:00Z Substitution von Akademikern durch andere ArbeitskrÄfte. — Dieser Aufsatz berichtet über SchÄtzungen von verschiedenen Autoren über die SubstitutionselastizitÄt zwischen hochqualifizierten (meist akademisch ausgebildeten) und anderen ArbeitskrÄften und befaβt sich mit den möglichen Ursachen für die Unterschiede in den ermittelten Werten. Die Hauptkritik besteht darin, daβ einige Autoren die Natur der untersuchten Beziehung unzureichend spezifiziert haben, d. h. nicht versucht haben, Nachfrage- und Angebotsbeziehungen getrennt zu identifizieren. Der Verfasser versucht, Material von anderen Autoren zu verwerten und weitere erklÄrende Variable hinzuzufügen, um diese beiden Beziehungen zu trennen. Diese Versuche lassen vermuten, daβ die SubstitutionselastizitÄten in der NÄhe von — I liegen. Allerdings ist einige Vorsicht angebracht, da die ermittelten Werte für die AngebotselastizitÄten keineswegs einheitlich sind. Eine weitere KlÄrung des Problems kann mit Hilfe von SchÄtzungen der einfachen NachfrageelastizitÄt für akademisch geschulte ArbeitskrÄfte erreicht werden. Die Ergebnisse, die der Verfasser auf verschiedene Weise gewonnen hat, deuten darauf hin, da\\ die Werte bei — I oder sogar niedriger liegen dem absoluten Wert nach. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/17437/ 1975-01-01T00:00:00Z In German: Einkommensverteilung: auf dem Weg zu einer neuen Einkommensgerechtigkeit, Gabler Verlag, Wiesbaden, 1978, 172 p. In Spanish: La Distribución del Ingreso, El Manual Moderno, Mexico, 1979, 154 p. In Italian: La Distribuzione del Reddito, Series ‘Biblioteca Moderna di Economia’ No. 15, Unione Tipografico, Torino, 1978, XI + 192 p. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/17616/ 1975-01-01T00:00:00Z Professor Dr. F. de Vries Lectures http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7972/ 1975-01-01T00:00:00Z The problems created by the population explosion, pollution, and resource scarcity, although not yet well understood, are likely to require curbs on future rates of economic and population growth. Targets for population and income in developed and developing countries for the year 2012 are constructed, assuming relatively successful birth control throughout the world and curtailed economic growth in the developed countries. The gap between per capita incomes of the richest and poorest countries is narrowed but still large--the top decile of countries (weighted by population size) is more than six times greater than the lowest decile. Considerable redistribution of income between countries is implied in the assumptions, and it is argued that redistribution within countries must accompany the brake on growth. Birth control and extended education can assist in achieving the latter redistribution. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8084/ 1974-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8085/ 1974-01-01T00:00:00Z The foremost place of R. Frisch in the modern development of economics and especially econometrics is assessed. Some of his achievements are briefly described: on land rent theory, marginal utility of income, bunch map ‘technique’ model building, planning, programming and Pareto optima. Some remarkable facts of Frisch's life are also reported, e.g. his short stay in a concentration camp during the war and his crusade against Norway joining the E.E.C. on the ground that the country had better remain an outside exampie of democracy and social justice. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15086/ 1973-09-01T00:00:00Z The main components of the problem complex posed by the Club of Rome are what the joint effect will be, and how it can be influenced, of (i) population growth, (ii) increase of pollution, (iii) the exhaustion of material resources and (iv) technological development. From the discussions of the last few years my main impressions are that policies to curb population growth and pollution are within reach, even though formidable obstacles will have to be faced. Put in oversimplified terms, the population explosion begins to be seen by a rapidly increasing number of people as a danger; various means to put a break on it have been developed and there is a group of countries where the effect of their use begins to be visible. Also a number of expert calculations on the means needed to keep pollution under control suggest that these are of the order of 4 per cent of national income for some developed countries; a figure not too deconcerting. The author is indebted to Professors O. Rademaker and H. Linnemann for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this article. Of course the responsibility for the present text is mine. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15085/ 1973-05-01T00:00:00Z A Cobb-Douglas production function with labour of three different levels of education is proposed. The quantity of labour with primary education is defined as the number of people having jobs requiring primary education plus the number of people with primary education who actually have jobs requiring secondary education, the latter being given a weight above one. An analogous definition applies to the quantity of labour with secondary education, where some people will actually have jobs requiring either second or third-level schooling. A simple model where utility functions developed elsewhere are also involved is used to determine the income distribution over levels of education and jobs for given numbers of labourers with primary and secondary education. Doubling the number of those with second and thirdlevel schooling will reduce income differences to about one half. It affords the Board of Editors great pleasure to publish this paper by one of their members. This gives the Board the opportunity, also on behalf of the readers ofDe Economist, to congratulate Professor Tinbergen most cordially upon his 70th birthday, which he celebrated on 12th April, 1973. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15083/ 1973-03-01T00:00:00Z The author proposes a method to arrive at a cardinal theory of utility or welfare (considered identical) by the introduction into the utility function of (1) variables, (2) parameters and (3) coefficients. Parameters characterize measured differences between individuals relevant to the problem considered; variables indicate either choices open to individuals (job, income) or exogenous circumstances (a salary scale or a tax scale). The ethical postulate introduced is the equality of each coefficient among different individuals, offered as an interpretation of the fundamental equality of men. Once the utility function has been defined and tested, justice in distribution is defined as equality of the values of that function for all individuals considered. A numerical illustration is added in which years of schooling and degree of independence are used as parameters to characterize twenty social groups and the just as distinct from the actual income distribution is calculated for the Netherlands around 1965. It affords the Board of Editors great pleasure to publish this paper by one of their members. This gives the Board the opportunity, also on behalf of the readers ofDe Economist, to congratulate Professor Tinbergen most cordially upon his 70th birthday, which he celebrated on 12th April, 1973. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15081/ 1972-05-01T00:00:00Z Interview with Professor Jan Tinbergen, The Hague, Nobel Price in Economics and Chairman of the United Nations Development Planning Committee, on the consequences of the enlargement and association policy of the EEC for international trade and development. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/19344/ 1972-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8086/ 1972-01-01T00:00:00Z In this paper the author adds some further empirical tests of his theory of income distribution. This theory (cf. this Review, Series 16, Number 3, September 1970, p. 221 ff) sees income distribution as the distribution of prices of production factors, especially labour, of different quality and prices as the effect of demand and supply factors. The quality of labour is represented only by the number of years of schooling. Its supply is described by the actual numbers of people having each of the possible years of schooling; this frequency distribution can be characterized by its average and by some measure of its dispersion or by one of its deciles (in particular the highest) expressed in terms of its median. The demand for the various qualities of labour can be supposed to be reflected by (i) total demand for commodities, but (ii) more accurately by the percentage of third-level educated people used in and weighted by the size of the four main sectors of production: agriculture, manufacturing, trade and transport, and other services. Extensive material collected and reworked by Professors B. R. Chiswick for the U.S.A. and Canada and T. P. Schultz and L. S. Burns with H. E. Frech III for the Netherlands is used in cross-section tests to explain variations in income distribution in the states of the U.S.A. and the provinces of Canada and the Netherlands. The results can be found in the tables. While further increase and smaller dispersion in years of schooling, according to some of the findings presented, would only moderately reduce the degree of inequality in the U.S.A. and Canada, more result seems to possible according to other findings, including those for the Netherlands. In the latter category the second demand index mentioned above has been used. This paper is one of several devoted in various ways to the testing of the same theory. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8087/ 1972-01-01T00:00:00Z Since the phrase income distribution covers a large number of different concepts, it is necessary to define these and to indicate the choice made in this article. Income for a given recipient may cover lists of items which are not always the same. Apart from popular misunderstandings about which items to include and exclude, statistical sources on incomes use varying definitions, often because of the data available. Tax statistics, which are among the most important sources for income data, sometimes exclude items because tax legislation contains allowances or includes items because of traditional concepts of income. The data from this source have been processed by a number of authors seeking to approximate the economic income concept, and it is assumed that this aim more or less has been attained. In other words, the article assumes that, in principle, the income figures used in the more sophisticated studies available cover the economic income concept and, more precisely, primary income, which is considered identical to income before tax. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15078/ 1971-01-01T00:00:00Z There is no doubt that human life in the more prosperous countries has changed very rapidly during the last few centuries. The availability of many forms of comfort has increased at a high rate. To a considerable extent, the forces behind this change are increased scientific and technological knowledge manifesting itself in the large numbers of new goods, in improvement in their qualities, and in a continuous change of production processes using increasingly ingenious and increasingly complicated means. A very considerable portion of these innovations have been created by individual minds and by individual acts, in which the individual was guided by personal interest and personal gain. Inventors, engineers, managers, and owners of means of production were moved largely by such personal motives. Scientists’ and technicians’ work was for quite some time one-man work, and so was employers’ activity. To be sure, they cooperated in groups of increasing size, but foi. a long time this cooperation was based on contracts that could be easily discontinued. And even though groupings of individuals of increasing size came to play their role, for the period under review the process of our society’s development was described as a process in which each person pursued his own interest. Attempts were even made to prove that such an attitude was conducive to the maximum of satisfaction for all and was creating the “best of all conceivable worlds.” This was typically the attitude of economic science, represented by its “father,” Adam Smith, and continued to be the approach adhered to by economists for a considerable portion of the 20th century. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15079/ 1971-01-01T00:00:00Z LASSWELLT:h e first of our discussants is of the discipline that the rest of the social scientists examine with mixed feelings of respect and envy, namely, economics. Prof. Jan Tinbergen. TINBERGEIN p: ropose not only to give a very brief summary of my paper but to add a few remarks that are inspired by the discussions in these two and a half days. In my paper I trace how, during the last century and a half, both the aims and the means of social economic policies have changed. A number of social objectives have been added to the aims, especially care for the weak and income distribution generally, but other social objectives as well. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16565/ 1970-01-01T00:00:00Z In French: Pour une Terre Vivable, Elsevier Sequoia, Paris, 1977, 199 p. In Spanish: Pour una Terra Habitavel, Series ‘Camera Brasiliero do Livre’, CIP Brasil, Sao Paulo, 1977, 197 p. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8088/ 1970-01-01T00:00:00Z Orginally published in 1970, in French, Spanish and English. The English edition was reprinted in 1996 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8089/ 1970-01-01T00:00:00Z A positive theory of income distribution based on assumptions concerning the supply of and demand for each type of productive service is presented. The demand function of the organizers of production may be derived from the maximization of profits with the income scale and the production function as restrictions. A normative theory based on the maximization of a social utility or welfare function is also considered. In the normative theory, production functions and balance equations (some representing compartmentalization of factor markets) are introduced as restrictions and again an income scale results, this time maximizing social welfare. Empirical testing is also considered. The positive theory was developed in part to take into consideration the fact that personal income distributions can reasonably well be described by log normal distributions, and that skill parameters are often normally distributed. Limited testing of the influence of wealth, intelligence, education, and sex suggest that these account for only a small part of the variance in the income distribution. This suggests the need for further research. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16502/ 1969-01-01T00:00:00Z In Italian: Lo Spazio nei Piani Economici, Franco Angeli Editore, Milan, 1972, 391 p. In Spanish: El Factor Espacio en la Planificación del Desarollo, Series ‘Fondo de Cultura Económica’, Fondo de Cultura Económica, Mexico, 1980, 405 p. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15075/ 1968-12-01T00:00:00Z We know that human beings live in centres, that is, cities, towns and villages of different size. Both large and small centres have a number of advantages and disadvantages, different for different people and this is why we have a whole range of sizes. Statistically, we even find that the size distribution is fairly regular. No scientific explanation worthy of that name has been advanced so far. Neither do we know whether or not the existing distribution is optimal. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8090/ 1968-01-01T00:00:00Z Development planning has become a routine activity for large numbers of corporations as well as for public authorities at various levels, particularly national governments. In quite a few national planning agencies extensive analyses of the probable expansion of world supply and demand and of prices are made. Such analyses require projections of the probable development of a group of autonomous factors, say, public expenditure and private investment, for a number of foreign countries. In some industries, such as agriculture, an old well-established agency like the Food and Agriculture Organization exists, fully able to play the part supposed to be fulfilled by sector representatives. For manufacturing some worldwide private organizations exist although it is not certain that they are sufficiently equipped to cooperate. In the education sector, the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization and in the health sector the World Health Organization are the natural partners. Business as well as trade unions should be asked for their advice and suggestions. The International Labor Organization will be available. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14676/ 1967-09-01T00:00:00Z Die Veröffentlichung des Aufsatzes von Prof.Tinbergen im Fachjournal des Zentralen Instituts für Wirtschaftsmathematik der Akademie der Wissenschaften der UdSSR zeigt, in welchem Bereich und auf welchem Niveau Sozialwissenschaftler aus Ost- und Westeuropa heute zusammenarbeiten können. Dieser Bereich gemeinsamen Interesses ist durch die Frage nach der optimalen Organisation der Gesellschaft charakterisiert. Prof.Tinbergen faßt die Bedürfnisbefriedigung als allgemeinen Inhalt der gesellschaftlichen Zielfunktion auf, geht jedoch insofern über die traditionelle Interpretation hinaus, als die gesellschaftlichen Institutionen nicht Daten, sondern Variable der Optimierungsaufgabe sind. Besondere Aufmerksamkeit verdienen die Einbeziehung der Arbeitsanstrengung in die Nutzenfunktion und die Behandlung der Häufigkeitsverteilung von Arbeitsqualitäten im Rahmen der Produktionsfunktion; abschließend verweist der Autor auf die Notwendigkeit empirischer Forschung zur Aufstellung einer volkswirtschaftlichen Bildungsfunktion. The publication of the article by ProfessorTinbergen in the Journal of the Central Institute for Mathematical Economics of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR indicates both the field and the level on which social scientists from eastern and western Europe can cooperate today. The field of joint interest is characterized by the search for an optimal organization of society. According to ProfessorTinbergen the satisfaction of wants is the general content of the social optimum; yet, he goes beyond traditional interpretation in that he does not consider social institutions to be data but variables of the optimization problem. Furthermore, the inclusion of productive effort into the utility function and the treatment of the frequency distribution of labour qualities in the framework of the production function are of special interest; in conclusion, the author points to the necessity of empirical research for the development of a social education function. In Polish: Sovremennye Problemy Teorii Naradnochzjajstvennogo Blagosostojanija, in: Ekonomika i Matematicheski Metody, Vol. 3, No.3, 1967, pp. 348-355 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16459/ 1967-01-01T00:00:00Z Series ‘Wereldakademie’ No. 18. In English: Development Planning, Series World University Library No. 18, Weidenfeld and Nicolson, London, 1967, 256 p. In Spanish: Planificacion del Desarrollo, Series ‘Biblioteca para el Hombre Actual’, Ediciones Guadarrama, Madrid, 1967, 254 p. In German: Modelle zur Wirtschaftsplanung, Series ‘Kindlers Universitäts Bibliothek’, Kindler, München, 1967, 256 p. In French: La Planification, Series ‘L’Uinivers des Connaissances’ No. 18, Hachette, Paris, 1967, 255 p. In Italian: Sviluppo e Planificazione, Series ‘L’Universo del Conoscere’, Saggiatore, Milan, 1967, 255 p. In Portuguese: Desenvolvimento Planejado, Series ‘Biblioteca de Ciências Sociais, Zahar Editors, Rio de Janeiro, 1975, 229 p. In Indonesian: ‘Rencana Pembangunan’, Penerbit Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, 1980, 239 p. In Japanese: Kaihatsu Keikaku, Kajima Kenkyujo Shuppankai, Tokyo, 1970, 205 p. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16461/ 1967-01-01T00:00:00Z Translation of 'Ontwikkelingsplannen' , De Haan/Meulenhoff, Zeist/Amsterdam,1967. World University Library Series No. 18. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16102/ 1965-01-01T00:00:00Z Originally in English: Lessons from the Past, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1963, XII + 131 p. In Spanish: Lecciones del Pasado, Series ‘Economia Sociedad Coleccion de Ciencia Económica’, No.1, Ariel, Barcelona, 1965, 205 p. In Finnish: Menneisydden Opetukset, Weilin & Göös, Helsinki, 1965, 221 p. In Turkish: Geçmisten alinacak dersler; çeviren, Eylül, 1966, 179 p. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/17498/ 1964-01-01T00:00:00Z Studies in Comparative Economics No. 4. In Spanish: Planejamento Central, Atlas Publishers, Sao Paulo, 1964, 138 p. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8101/ 1964-01-01T00:00:00Z The article summarizes the findings of the Symposium on the Possibilities of Operations Research in Developing Countries, held in Paris, France, June 26-28, 1963. Operational research may be characterized by, first, treating complicated problems with a large number of variables; second, using various modern mathematical and logistic methods; and third, being directed toward a goal of action. Its success has been proved already especially solving a number of problems in manufacturing industries, transportation and energy, fields for which usually precise and abundant data are available which make it worthwhile applying sophisticated methods. Some of the problems may be characterized by first, great complexity, requiring the cooperation between very different types of experts; second, for their solution they require the cooperation of governments as well as citizens of developing countries which gives particular importance to the necessity of communication between planners and the groups mentioned; third, for the solution of development planning problems only a restricted number of qualified experts is available; and fourth, the situation in the countries concerned is characterized by lack of capital. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16056/ 1963-01-01T00:00:00Z In Dutch: De Les van Vijftig Jaar, Series ‘Agon Bibliotheek’ No.14, Agon Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1965, 168 p. In Spanish: Lecciones del Pasado, Series ‘Economia Sociedad Coleccion de Ciencia Económica’, No.1, Ariel, Barcelona, 1965, 205 p. In Finnish: Menneisydden Opetukset, Weilin & Göös, Helsinki, 1965, 221 p. In Turkish: Geçmisten alinacak dersler; çeviren, Eylül, 1966, 179 p. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16009/ 1962-01-01T00:00:00Z Economics Handbook Series, edited by Seymour E. Harris. In Spanish: Modelos Matematicos del Crecimiento Económico, Series ‘Biblioteca de Ciencias Sociales’, Aguilar, Madrid, 1966, XVI + 165 p. In French: Modèles Mathématiques de Croissance Economique. Series ‘Techniques Economiques Modernes’, Gauthier, Paris, 1969, VI + 145 p. In Russian: Matematiceskie Modeli Ekonomiceskogo Rosta, Progress, Moscow, 1967, 172 p. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16826/ 1962-01-01T00:00:00Z In Dutch: Naar een Nieuwe Wereldeconomie: voorstellen voor een internationaal economisch beleid, Rotterdam University Press, Rotterdam, 1965, XV + 335 p. In Spanish: Hacia Una Economía Mundial: sugerencias para una política económica internacional, Series Biblioteca de Economía No.7, Orbis, Barcelona, 1985, 242 p. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8102/ 1961-01-01T00:00:00Z Also published in: M. Bornstein (Ed.), Comparative Economic Systems: models and cases, R.D. Irwin, Homewood (Ill.), 1965, pp. 455-464. In German: Kommt es zu einer Annäherung zwischen den kummunistischen und den freiheitlichen Wirtschaftsordnungen?, Hamburger Jahrbuch für Wirtschafts- und Gesellschaftspolitik, Vol. 8, 1963, pp. 11-20. In French: Les Economies Communistes et Libérales Convergent-elles vers un Modèle Commun?, in: Jan Tinbergen, Politique Economique et Optimum Social, Economica, Paris, 1972, pp. 61-71 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8103/ 1960-01-01T00:00:00Z The problem dealt with in this article is whether we can indicate, with the help of measured economic concepts, the rate of savings--as a function of time--which maximizes utility over time. The author believes that his attempt has been unsuccessful, but hopes that the nature of the difficulties encountered may be of some help in future attempts to solve this problem. A problem regarding the most important decision to be taken for any development program. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15944/ 1959-01-01T00:00:00Z Edited by L.H. Klaassen, L.M. Koyck and H.J. Witteveen, Presented on the occasion of his 25 years jubilee as a professor at the Netherlands School of Economics at Rotterdam. (With a bibliography of professor Tinbergen's work). http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16750/ 1959-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14675/ 1958-12-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15966/ 1958-01-01T00:00:00Z Series ‘Publications of the Economic Development Institute of the IBRD’, No.2. In Spanish: La Planeación del Desarollo, Series ‘Obras de Economía’, Fondo de Cultura, Mexico, 1959, 107 p. In French: Planification du Développement, Series ‘Etudes “Tiers Monde”: Problèmes des Pays de Sous-Développés’, Presses Universitaires de France, Paris, 1962, 87 p. In Japanese: Keizai hatten Keikakuron, Yuhikaku, Tokyo, 1963, 152 p. In German: Grundlagen der Entwicklungsplanung, Series ‘Schriftenreihe des Forschungsinstituts der Friedrich Ebert Stiftung’, Verlag für Literatur und Zeitgeschehen, Hannover, 1964, 111 p. In Poruguese: Programaçao para o Desenvolvimento, Fundaçao Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, 1969, 132 p. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8105/ 1958-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8106/ 1957-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8471/ 1957-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8474/ 1957-01-01T00:00:00Z Also published in: Joseph Berechman et al. (Eds), Transport and Land Use, Elgar Reference Collection Modern Classics in Regional Science Vol.2, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 1996, pp. 524-532. Also: Reprint No.5, Netherlands Economic Institute, Rotterdam, 1957 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16740/ 1956-01-01T00:00:00Z Contributions to Economic Analysis Vol. 10, edited by J. Tinbergen, P.J. Verdoorn and H.J. Witteveen. In Spanish: Politica Económica: Principios y Formulación, Fondo de Cultura Económico, Mexico, 1961, 343 p. In German: Wirtschaftspolitik, Series ‘Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik’, Rombach, Freiburg, 1961, 362 p. In French: Techniques Modernes de la Politique Economique, Series ‘Finance et Economie Appliqueé’ No.10, Dunod, Paris, 1961, 250 p. In Italian: Principi e Metodi della Politica Economica, Series ‘Collana di Economia Sezione’ No. 1, Angeli, Milan, 1969, 299 p. In Czech: Hospodárská Politika: Zásady a Tvorba, Nakladatelství Svoboda, Prague, 1972, 288 p. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8475/ 1956-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14674/ 1954-12-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15343/ 1954-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16606/ 1954-01-01T00:00:00Z Series 'Contributions to Economic Analysis' Vol. 6, Edited by J. Tinbergen, P.J. Verdoorn and H.J. Witteveen. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9740/ 1954-01-01T00:00:00Z It is certainly true to say that the present situation is unfortunate -the situation with respect to the use of mathematics in economic science -and improvement may be obtained as a consequence of a clearer understanding of the functions of mathematics. I very much welcome the attempt made by Dr. Novick, although I am inclined to put things somewhat differently. To what extent there is between us only a difference in wording and to what extent one of substance, I do not quite see. Therefore let me give my own view in my own words. The functions of mathematical treatment in economic research may perhaps best be discussed on the basis of a breakdown into various elements of a complete piece of econometric research. Not all pieces of important economic analysis are by necessity also "complete": sometimes certain elements are absent, as a consequence of the special features of the problem handled. I do not want to say therefore that every contribution to economic science should show all the elements to be enumerated; but the function of mathematics becomes clearer if we consider this complete set of elements. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14673/ 1953-12-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9741/ 1953-01-01T00:00:00Z Although several most important contributions were made by the participants at our Cambridge meeting and the material organization ran most smoothly, I must confess that I was not satisfied, which may be partly due to personal reasons. Since, however, the few observations that I have to make apply also to most of our previous European meetings, I hope they may be of some use to the organizers of our future meetings. Indeed I think that the efficiency of our meetings is considerably less satisfactory than it could be. I have tried to analyse the reasons why this is so. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9742/ 1953-01-01T00:00:00Z The article published by one of the authors' on alternative policies to restore balance of payments equilibrium needs some correction and may be somewhat generalized. . http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14670/ 1952-12-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14672/ 1952-12-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15884/ 1952-01-01T00:00:00Z Serie "Contributions to Economic Analysis", No.1. In Spanish: Ensayos de Teoria Económica, Colección de Ciencias Sociales No. 42, Tecnos, Madrid, 1965, 71 p. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9743/ 1952-01-01T00:00:00Z Also published in: Dale J. Poirier (Ed.), The Methodology of Eonometrics. International Library of Critical Writings in Econometrics (Vol. 6), Edward Elgar, Aldershot, 1994, p. 223 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9744/ 1952-01-01T00:00:00Z PROBLEoMf eSconomic policy for static models are characterized by the fact that in the usual system of equations describing the structure of such models the role of unknown and known variables has been inverted, wholly or partially. In the political problem unknom-ns are the numerical values of a number of political parameters, whereas a number of "economic variables" in the old sense are now given targets. In order that a certain set of target values be attainable by a certain type of economic policy (i.e., by the choice of a certain number of instruments) the number of equations must be equal to the number of unknown political parameters plus, as the case may be, those unknown economic variables that are not chosen as targets. Various logical situations may present themselves, the simplest being the situation just indicated. If the number of equations is too small, the economic policy aimed at is inconsistent or contradictory; if it is too large, the policy is indeterminate and the target has to be specified more exactly. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9745/ 1952-01-01T00:00:00Z Also published in: ‘Jan Tinbergen Selected Papers’, edited by L.H. Klaassen, L.M. Koyck and H.J. Witteveen, North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam, 1959, pp. 222-242. Also: Reprint No. 17, Centraal Planbureau, The Hague, 1952. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9746/ 1952-01-01T00:00:00Z Stimulated by Fleming's study on a related subject, the author compares four methods to eliminate balance of payments disequilibria between high-employment countries forming a closed group: (i) "discriminatory" import duties and subsidies, (ii) "discriminatory" duties only or the corresponding quantitative restrictions, (iii) nondiscriminatory duties, and (iv) devaluation or income adaptation. For each an "optimum version" is defined and chosen; they are compared as to (a) the loss in international trade and (b) the distribution of the "direct burden" between the countries (defined as the short-run loss in real expenditure). A number of rather specific simplifications are introduced, all tending to make the case as symmetric as possible with regard to countries and commodities. As a consequence of the high-employment hypothesis and of absence of production substitution, problems of optimum allocation of resources are ruled out; the approach is a short-run one. Only policies (i) and (iv) show no loss of trade, whereas the others do; but in the case of devaluation the "direct burden" is relatively heavier for the deficit countries than in the other three cases. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14856/ 1951-01-01T00:00:00Z In Dutch: Econometrie, Series ‘Noorduyn’s Wetenschappelijke Reeks’ No.1, J. Noorduijn en Zoon, Gorinchem, 1941, 155 p. In French: L’Econometrie, Librarie Armand Colin, Paris, 1954 In Hungarian: Ökonometria, Közgazdasàgi és Jogi Könyvkiadé, Budapest, 1957. In Danish: Okonometri, Munksgaard, Copenhagen, 1948. In German: Einführung in die Ökonometrie, Humboldt Verlag, Vienna, 1952 In Polish: Wprowadzenie do Ekonometrii, Naukowe, Warsaw, 1957 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16572/ 1951-01-01T00:00:00Z Series ‘Verhandelingen der Koninklijke Nederlandse Academie van Wetenschappen’(Royal Dutch Academy of Sciences), No. 57/4 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9747/ 1951-01-01T00:00:00Z The difficulty of giving a correct appraisal of so many-sided a talent as Schumpeter was is evident. The following impressions relate to only one aspect of the writings of this complicated and almost mysterious mind; they try to find out what his attitude was toward the type of economist we may call "model builders" in the econometric sense. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9748/ 1951-01-01T00:00:00Z The significance of Frisch's notion of decision models is, in the first place, that they draw full attention upon "inverted problems" which economic policy puts before us. In these problems the data are no longer those in the traditional economic problems, but partly the political goals of economic policy such as a certain volume of employment, equilibrium in the balance of payments, a certain standard of life, etc. Unknowns, on the other hand, are a number of political parameters such as tax tariffs of different types or the exchange rate. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14668/ 1950-12-01T00:00:00Z In English: The Significance of Wage Policy for Employment, International Economic Papers, Vol. 1(1951), pp. 80-92. Also: Reprint No. 8 Centraal Planbureau (Central Planning Bureau, The Hague) http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14669/ 1950-12-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15049/ 1950-01-01T00:00:00Z In Dutch: Economische Bewegingsleer, North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam, 1943, 274 p. In Spanish: Dinámica del Ciclo Económico; estudio de las fluctuaciones económicas, Fondo de Cultura Económica, Mexico, 1956, 387 p. In Japanese: Keiki Junkan no Dotaigaku, Series ‘Gendai Keizaigaku Meicho Senshu’ No. 7, Bungadoshoten, Tokyo, 1959, 437 p. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9749/ 1950-01-01T00:00:00Z In the article under discussion I expressed the wish that the field of elasticities of substitution would be explored more intensively. I very much welcome Dr. Polak's contribution. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9750/ 1949-01-01T00:00:00Z At the prevailing exchange rates and price levels it appears that, considering the current items of the balance of payments of the United States, demand for dollars surpasses their supply. Or in other terms: American exports to the rest of the world (taking goods and services together) surpass imports from the other countries. For the moment, one of the chief reasons is the heavy reconstruction demand in many countries, particularly European, together with the low level of productivity in these areas. Many experts expect, however, that the disequilibrium will remain to some extent after the reconstruction period. The possibility of a permanent disequilibrium will hamper, they fear, even the action needed to solve the temporary dificulties. Granting credits for reconstruction to war-hit countries is not attractive unless in the long run an equilibrium will develop. It seems worth while, therefore, to investigate in some more detail the possibilities of restoring the equilibrium in the current items of the American balance of payments. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9751/ 1949-01-01T00:00:00Z In recent years increasing use has been made of systems of social accounts, and a variety of new types and new forms of presentation have been suggested. The general features of such systems are: (a) the division of an economy into a number of groups or economic entities, mostly themselves a complex of elementary units, and (b) a summing up in the form of accounts of the transactions of various kinds between these economic entities. As a rule, the economy of one country is investigated, implying that all other countries are regarded as one single group. The economy considered may be split up into a number of separate groups. It is customary to distinguish between consumers' households, business enterprises, and the government sector. If special attention is to be given to banking problems for example, banks will constitute a separate group. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9752/ 1949-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9753/ 1949-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9754/ 1949-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9755/ 1947-01-01T00:00:00Z The article discusses the problems in the explanation of interest rates. Econometric analysis has to start from a theoretical scheme of the subject, its object indicates the determinants or data of the rates of interest and the functional relationship between these rates and their determinants. The purpose of the analysis may be formulated to explain the differences between, interest rates in different countries, various types of interest rates in the same country and the development in time of these interest rates. Rate of interest itself also exerts an important influence, particularly on that part of credit creation due to commercial banks, it was found that both the supply of deposits and the demand for short claims by commercial banks showed a dear dependence on the short-term interest rate. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9756/ 1947-01-01T00:00:00Z Immediately after the Liberation the Netherlands were faced with a severe shortage of all essential goods, particularly in the Western part of the country, where the period of famine had led to a complete exhaustion of all stocks, and where the Germans had deliberately destroyed the railway system. At that time there was no alternative to a policy of rigorous planning, approaching that of a war economy. After the worst damage had been repaired and the shortages partially alleviated, it became apparent that the pent-up demand (backed by abundant liquid reserves), was so much larger than production and imports together, that an allocation and rationing system would be necessary to prevent inflation. It was not a matter of principle, but the compelling nature of the circumstances which led to the continuation of a policy of detailed planning. Even now the situation in the Netherlands, as compared with that of the other North-Western European countries, makes rigorous planning more necessary than elsewhere. The combined effect of (a) war damage, (b) the loss of income from overseas investments, (c) the chaos in the German hinterland, and (d) the large increase in population, is affecting the Netherlands more seriously than any other North-Western European country. The primary object of this planning is to restore equilibrium between : (a) Imports and exports ; (b) Supply of consumers' goods and a tolerable standard of living for the mass of the population ; (c) New investment ; and (d) The increase in population. In the more remote future it is probable that the economic policy of the Netherlands will gradually tend towards an employment policy which will use more indirect methods of influencing production, consumption and prices. It is the intention of this paper to give a short account of the chief features of the present system of drawing-up the nation's economic budget. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15456/ 1946-01-01T00:00:00Z Series ‘Capita Selecta der Economie’ No. 1 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15634/ 1946-01-01T00:00:00Z Separate edition of Part 3 of ‘Economische Bewegingsleer’ (1943) http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16566/ 1946-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9946/ 1946-01-01T00:00:00Z So far, when measuring elasticities of demand, most econometricians have concentrated upon the plain elasticity of total demand for a given commodity. For many important problems we should, in addition, like to know something of "partial elasticities," as I might provisionally call them. I am thinking of the elasticity of the demand for imported units only of a given commodity; or of the elasticity of the demand, for a given good, as far as supplied by one specific country. In both cases the demand relates to part of a market only; in the first instance total sales relate to all units of the given good supplied by imports as well as by home production; in the second instance total sales consist of the sales by the country considered as well as by all competing countries. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15322/ 1945-01-01T00:00:00Z Series ‘Elseviers Economische Bibliotheek’, No.4, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1945, 208 p. In Spanish: La Cooperación Económica Internacional, Biblioteca de la Ciencia Económica, Madrid, 1952, 186 p. 2nd, complete revised edition, 1954, Elsevier, 191 p. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15278/ 1944-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14667/ 1943-12-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15048/ 1943-01-01T00:00:00Z In English: The Dynamics of Business Cycles; a study in economic fluctuations (translated by J.J. Polak), University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1950, 366 p. In Spanish: Dinámica del Ciclo Económico; estudio de las fluctuaciones económicas, Fondo de Cultura Económica, Mexico, 1956, 387 p. In Japanese: Keiki Junkan no Dotaigaku, Series ‘Gendai Keizaigaku Meicho Senshu’ No. 7, Bungadoshoten, Tokyo, 1959, 437 p. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9947/ 1942-01-01T00:00:00Z The fact that consumption outlay of individuals as well as of groups of individuals depends on their income is well known. Although this statement will hardly be doubted, it may be tested statistically from family budget statistics, as has been done by various investigators. These statistics can show only that consumption outlay by different people, having different incomes at the same moment, depends on income. Consumption outlay by the same family in different years, showing varying income, will not necessarily depend on income in the same way that is shown-by family budget statistics. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9948/ 1942-01-01T00:00:00Z Also published in: A.H. Hansen and R.V. Clemence (Eds), Readings in Business Cycles and National Income, Allen & Unwin, London, 1953, pp. 357-375 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14665/ 1941-12-01T00:00:00Z In English: Unstable and Indifferent Equilibria in Economic Systems, Revue de l’Institut International de Statistique, Vol. 9, No.1/2, 1941, pp. 36-50 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14666/ 1941-12-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14855/ 1941-01-01T00:00:00Z In English: Econometrics, Allen and Unwin, London, 1951 and Blakiston Press, Philadelphia (USA), 1951 In French: L’Econometrie, Librarie Armand Colin, Paris, 1954 In Hungarian: Ökonometria, Közgazdasàgi és Jogi Könyvkiadé, Budapest, 1957. In Danish: Okonometri, Munksgaard, Copenhagen, 1948. In German: Einführung in die Ökonometrie, Humboldt Verlag, Vienna, 1952 In Polish: Wprowadzenie do Ekonometrii, Naukowe, Warsaw, 1957 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14664/ 1940-12-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14857/ 1940-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9949/ 1940-01-01T00:00:00Z Also published in: A.H. Hansen and R.V. Clemence (Eds), Readings on Business Cycles and National Income, Allen & Unwin, London, 1953, pp. 341-354, in: Adrian C. Darnell (Ed), The History of Econometrics Vol. 2, Edward Elgar, Aldershot, 1994, pp. 214-227 and in: Dale J. Poirier (Ed), The Methodology of Econometrics Vol. 1, Edward Elgar, Aldershot, 1994, pp. 58-71 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9951/ 1940-01-01T00:00:00Z Also published in: G. Haberler (Ed.), Readings in Business Cycles Theory, Blakiston, Philadelphia, 1944, pp. 61-86, in: Adrian C. Darnell (Ed.), The History of Econometrics, Vol. 2, Edward Elgar, Aldershot, 1994, pp. 230-247 and in: David F. Hendry and Mary S. Morgan (Eds), The Foundations of Econometric Analysis, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1995, pp. 399-406 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14661/ 1939-12-01T00:00:00Z Henry Schultz war Mitglied des American Organizing Committee for the Fifth Congress for the Unity of Science (Harvard University 1939). http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14662/ 1939-12-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14663/ 1939-12-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14936/ 1939-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14937/ 1939-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9954/ 1939-01-01T00:00:00Z Also published in: ‘Jan Tinbergen Selected Papers’, edited by L.H. Klaassen, L.M. Koyck and H.J. Witteveen, Nort- Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam, 1959, pp. 165-181 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9957/ 1939-01-01T00:00:00Z In a recent investigation which the author has made for the League of Nations Secretariat, it was found that share prices seem to have exerted a considerable influence on the course of the American cycle beginning in 1924 and having its boom year in 1929. The chief reason for this influence may be summarized briefly as follows: (a) Share prices have an influence on the ease with which capital issues may be floated and therefore on investment activity in general; (b) the rate of increase in share prices seems to have an influence on consumption, especially by those making capital gains. These influences have been investigated in the forthcoming League of Nations publication and will not be treated in detail now, but it may be seen from this brief indication that the formation of share prices seems to be important in the explanation of some business-cycle phenomena. This is the justification for the present paper, which deals only with that price formation. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14660/ 1938-12-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14750/ 1938-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9958/ 1938-01-01T00:00:00Z Much attention has recently been given to the so-called " acceleration principle " or " the Relation " as Mr. Harrodl calls it. Developed by Professors Aftalion, Bickerdike, Bouniatian, Carver, Fanno, Kuznets and Pigou, it has been given special attention by Professor J. M. Clark in his splendid survey Strategic Factors in Business Cycles3 ; and has obtained a place in many theories of the business cycle. Professor Haberler,a from whom part of the above references are taken, also uses it in his own synthesis of theories ; Mr. Harrod regards the acceleration principle and the multiplier principle acting in combination as the chief forces in trade cycles. Quite recently Dr. Chait4 has developed a theory ikplying as special iases both the acceleration principfe and the multiplier principle. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9961/ 1938-01-01T00:00:00Z The present study consists of two kinds of approach: (1) a statistical research into the chief dynamic equations describing American business cycles between 1920 and 1932 and (2) a number of more general methodological remarks on this type of research with particular attention to problems of policy. In order to simplify exposition in many points, it seemed desirable to exemplify the general thought immediately; and for this reason the two approaches are more or less mixed. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14079/ 1937-09-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14078/ 1937-02-01T00:00:00Z Some problems of business cycle policy are considered with the aid of a simplified model of dutch business life. This model is described by 21 equations, the meaning of which has been discussed elsewhere. In the present article special attention is given to the influence of a given cyclic movement of foreign prices and demand on profits and employment in the Netherlands, under different régimes of economic policy. Chart 1 shows the movements under existing conditions, chart 2 those occurring under a régime of compensating public investment, chart 3 those under a régime of compensating exchange rates and chart 4 gives the consequences of a combination of these two forms of business cycle policy. In a somewhat more general way the question is treated which among a greater number of possibilities would constitute the best policy and it is argued that a combination of compensating exchange rates, compensating public investment, stabilisation of consumption outlay and reduction of speculation opportunities would show the best results. Finally the question of directives as distinguished from that of the instrument of business cycle policy is discussed somewhat nearer. The author is of the opinion that a useful directive for the different forms of business cycle policy discussed is to be seen in the tension barometers given by the Central Bureau of Statistics in De Nederlandsche Conjunctuur (August 1936, p. 16–17). http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14077/ 1936-06-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14076/ 1936-04-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14075/ 1936-02-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14751/ 1936-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14074/ 1935-06-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9964/ 1935-01-01T00:00:00Z The aim of business cycle theory is to explain certain movements of economic variables. Therefore, the basic question to be answered is in what ways movements of variables may be generated. In answering this question it is useful to distinguish between exogen and endogen movements, the former being movements during which certain data vary, while, in the latter, the data are supposed to be constant. Since in a static theory (e.g., the JJ7alrasian system) the values of all the variables are determined by the data at the same moment, this theory does not admit endogen movements. A dynamic theory is therefore necessary, a theory being called "dynamic" when variables relating to different moments appear in one equation. Of course, exogen movements are possible in a dynamic theory as well as in a static one. Business cycle research shows that a dynamic theory is necessary to explain facts and so business cycle theory is not possible within the field of static theory. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14073/ 1934-06-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9966/ 1934-01-01T00:00:00Z This survey may be opened with some apologetic remarks. The first is that to write a complete survey would mean to write a book. This has not been the intention of the editor, nor does it lie within the power of the present writer. Therefore, this survey is, in principle, incomplete, as will be easily seen by the many important authors whose work is not here discussed. The second remark is that a survey like this is, of necessity, one-sided and restricted. It is one-sided by reason of the special view of the writer on what is interesting and what is not; as, for example,this survey shows special interest in quantitative problems. It is restricted as a consequence of the fact that knowledge of nearly every individual about subjects more removed is less than about subjects in his direct neighborhood-both in a concrete and an abstract sense. The third remark relates to the subdivision of the material; it is difficult to represent, in a one-dimensional exposition, as the current text of a paper, a thing of multi-dimensional character. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14072/ 1933-06-01T00:00:00Z Onder deze titel heeft Dr. van Oenechten een afgerond en geperfektionneerd geheel van zijn ten dele reeds gepubliceerde onderzoekingen in boekvorm doen verschijnen. Behalve zijn bekende studien over de samenhang tussen de produktiviteit van her kapitaal en de rente geeft de schrijver hier ook beschouwingen over de grond en de arbeid. Voor de niet-ingewijde lezer waartoe schrijver dezes zich heeft te rekenen -- bevatten deze laatste uiteraard reeds een aantal belangwekkende samenvattingen over war er op dit gebied reeds is ontteed en waargenomen. De meeste belangstelling zullen toch echter de twee laatste hoofdstukken, welke over verminderende meeropbrengsten van her kapitaal en over gevolgen daarvan handelen, wel trekken, niet het minst omdat de schrijver zijn belangrijkste bijdragen tot de theoretiese ekonomie op dit gebied heeft geleverd. Daarover moge dan ook enigszins meer in detail worden gesproken. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10049/ 1933-01-01T00:00:00Z Les considérations suivantes se rapportent à la théorie des oscillations économiques. Comme résultat idéal de toutes les recherches à ce sujet, on peut,, il me semble, indiquer la découverte des causes et du mécanisme du mouvement cyclique général des affaires. Au point de vue quantitatif, on est encore loin d'avoir satisfait à cette exigence idéale. Un accord satisfaisant entre théorie et observation statistique n'existe que dans certains cas très simples. Pour les cas plus compliqués, il n'y a guère de t,héorie quantitative suffisamment élaborée, et les corrélations qu'on a trouvées expérimentalement manquent souvent d'une base logique assez fondée. Il y a donc ici un champ très étendu pour la Société d'ficonométrie. J'espère donner ici une petite contribution aux recherches théoriques dans ce champ. Cette contribution n'a cependant qu'un caractère préparatoire. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10050/ 1933-01-01T00:00:00Z Also published in: David F. Hendry and Mary S. Morgan (Eds), The Foundations of Econometric Analysis, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1995, pp. 322-339 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14748/ 1933-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14070/ 1932-12-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14071/ 1932-08-01T00:00:00Z http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15965/ 1931-01-01T00:00:00Z The English translation ‘A Shipbuilding Cycle?’ was published in ‘Jan Tinbergen Selected Papers’, edited by L.H. Klaassen, L.M. Koyck and H.J. Witteveen, North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam, 1959, pp. 1-14 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14069/ 1930-10-01T00:00:00Z In English: Determination and Interpretation of Supply Curves: an example In: David F. Hendry and Mary S. Morgan (Eds), The Foundations of Econometric Analysis, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1995, pp. 233-245 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8215/ 1929-03-22T00:00:00Z Zijn proefschrift Minimumproblemen in de Natuurkunde en de Ekonomie laat de overgang zien van de natuurkundige naar de econoom Tinbergen. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14068/ 1928-12-01T00:00:00Z Een voor de gevolgen van de werkloosheid belangrijke faktor is de kwestie van de roulering van arbeidskrachten. Hetzelfde aantal verloren arbeidsdagen verdeeld over meerdere personen, die dus elk minder lang werkloos zijn, vormt steeds een minder groot gevaar voor de betrokkenen. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14067/ 1927-12-01T00:00:00Z