http://repub.eur.nl/res/aut/6076/ List of Publications en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/12874/ 2000-05-01T00:00:00Z AIMS: To determine very long-term survival and incidence of recurrent interventions following aorto-coronary bypass surgery using venous grafts. METHODS AND RESULTS: A group of 1041 consecutive patients operated upon between 1971 and 1980 were followed for a median of 19 years (range 13-26). Peri-operative mortality was 1.2%. Survival probability at 5, 10, 15, and 20 years was 92%, 77%, 57%, and 40%, respectively. After 5 or more years following operation the mortality was higher than in the matched Dutch population. Age, extent of coronary artery disease, and ejection fraction are independent predictors of mortality. Of the 593 deceased patients at least 63% died of a probable cardiac cause, while cardiovascular mortality is 40% in the general Dutch population. Repeat revascularization procedures (aorto-coronary bypass surgery or percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty) were performed in 343 patients (33%), with an increasing incidence after 7 years. CONCLUSION: Aorto-coronary bypass surgery using vein grafts is safe and has a reasonable long-term prognosis for survival, although less than a matched population. After approximately 7 years both mortality and the need for repeated revascularizations increased. Since a majority of patients died of a cardiac cause and a substantial number of patients required repeated revascularization, aorto-coronary bypass surgery is a palliative treatment of a progressive disease. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8596/ 1994-01-01T00:00:00Z OBJECTIVES. Many developed countries have seen declining mortality rates for heart disease, together with an alleged decline in incidence and a seemingly paradoxical increase in health care demands. This paper presents a model for forecasting the plausible evolution of heart disease morbidity. METHODS. The simulation model combines data from different sources. It generates acute coronary event and mortality rates from published data on incidences, recurrences, and lethalities of different heart disease conditions and interventions. Forecasts are based on plausible scenarios for declining incidence and increasing survival. RESULTS. Mortality is postponed more than incidence. Prevalence rates of morbidity will decrease among the young and middle-aged but increase among the elderly. As the milder disease states act as risk factors for the more severe states, effects will culminate in the most severe disease states with a disproportionate increase in older people. CONCLUSIONS. Increasing health care needs in the face of declining mortality rates are no contradiction, but reflect a tradeoff of mortality for morbidity. The aging of the population will accentuate this morbidity increase. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/5418/ 1992-01-01T00:00:00Z In 109 out of 479 patients who were referred for cardiac transplantation it was considered to be too early to put them on the waiting list for a donor heart. The clinical course of these 109 patients was analysed in order to verify whether this decision had been right. The mean age of the patients was 43 years, half of them suffered from ischaemic heart disease. The systolic left ventricular function of the patients was severely depressed (mean left ventricular ejection fraction 21%) and the left ventricular cavity was markedly dilated (mean echocardiographic end diastolic dimension 73 mm). Functional capacity, measured by bicycle ergometry, was low: mean maximal workload 62% of the expected load for gender, height and age. The median follow-up duration was 31 months. The survival rate of the patients was better than that of 175 patients who were accepted for transplantation after referral, 92%, 87%, 81%, 71% and 73%, 73%, 71%, 68% after 1, 2, 3 and 4 years respectively. Re-assessment was necessary in 29% of the patients within 1 year and in 52% within 3 years. Twenty patients died: 12 patients died before re-assessment had been initiated (eight sudden deaths), six patients because of progressive heart failure before heart transplantation could be performed and two patients died after heart transplantation. Left ventricular ejection fraction, pulmonary capillary wedge pressure and transpulmonary gradient were not reliable predictors of the course of the patients.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/4382/ 1990-01-01T00:00:00Z To determine the costs of a procedure, the total costs of the department that provides the service must be considered and, in addition, the direct cost of the specific procedure. Applying this principle to the cost accounting of angioplasty and bypass surgery results in a direct, i.e. procedural, cost, including the initial hospital stay, of respectively 8694 Dfl and 20,987 Dfl. A review of the follow-up data for the first year after the original intervention revealed a 2% reintervention rate for bypass surgery, while this percentage was 29% for angioplasty. Adding the first year costs involved with reinterventions to the procedural costs results in a 1-year cost of angioplasty and bypass operation of 13,625 Dfl and 21,363 Dfl, respectively. It is concluded that because of reinterventions in the first year, a mark up of 57% on the procedural cost of angioplasty must be added to cover 1-year costs, while for bypass surgery this is only 1%. Nevertheless, the 1-year cost for angioplasty is still 36% less than for bypass surgery. As reinterventions after PTCA may stay considerably higher than for CABG for several years, the mark-up percentages will be substantially higher for longer time spans. This may tend to equalize the total costs of PTCA and CABG over time spans of perhaps 5-8 years. Sufficient data are not available to verify this statement. Clinicians must realize that choosing the most appropriate procedure is not only a matter of medical assessment but also a matter of cost effectiveness. CABG can be seen as an 'investment decision' while PTCA tends to become a decision with characteristics of 'maintenance planning'!