Segers, R.

model density panel parameter cycle indicator gibbs sampler result figure sampling value series growth recession variable table analysis period distribution variance specification business sampler probability section journal confidence state consumer response number month example respondent effect component design survey trough likelihood sample level gibbs sampling bayesian estimate investment approach regression change point 2 2 regression model board consumer confidence conference board business cycle method forecast individual variance components response rates member matrix index growth rates observation time series non-synchronou information markov problem answer inference study question issue vector statistic conference paper