http://repub.eur.nl/res/aut/702/ List of Publications en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/22264/ 2010-09-01T00:00:00Z Behavioral biases can result in suboptimal acquisition decisions-with the potential for errors exacerbated in consolidating industries, where consolidators design serial acquisition strategies and fight escalating takeover battles for platform companies that may determine their future competitive position. To guide objective managerial judgment, and to rationally anticipate the irrational behavior of rival bidders or financial markets, this article proposes a modified option-game toolkit for serial acquisition strategy. It brings together insights from both strategy and finance, which quantify acquisition strategies, thus allowing executives to make rational intuitive decisions under uncertainty. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/17436/ 2009-09-01T00:00:00Z This paper shows that the conditionality of investment decisions in R&D has a critical impact on portfolio risk, and implies that traditional diversification strategies should be reevaluated when a portfolio is constructed. Real option theory argues that research projects have conditional or option-like risk and return properties, and are different from unconditional projects. Although the risk of a portfolio always depends on the correlation between projects, a portfolio of conditional R&D projects with real option characteristics has a fundamentally different risk than a portfolio of unconditional projects. When conditional R&D projects are negatively correlated, diversification only slightly reduces portfolio risk. When projects are positively correlated, however, diversification proves more effective than conventional tools predict. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15410/ 2009-04-03T00:00:00Z This paper shows that the conditionality of investment decisions in R&D has a critical impact on portfolio risk, and implies that traditional diversification strategies should be reevaluated when a portfolio is constructed. Real option theory argues that research projects have conditional or option-like risk and return properties, and are different from unconditional projects. Although the risk of a portfolio always depends on the correlation between projects, a portfolio of conditional R&D projects with real option characteristics has a fundamentally different risk than a portfolio of unconditional projects. When conditional R&D projects are negatively correlated, diversification only slightly reduces portfolio risk. When projects are positively correlated, however, diversification proves more effective than conventional tools predict. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16283/ 2009-01-01T00:00:00Z To understand the recent trend toward privatization of infrastructure assets (e.g., airports), this article proposes a valuation methodology based on real options and game theory analysis that enables assessing when investors might overpay for infrastructure assets over standard discounted cash flow methods and when a premium is justified for their operating flexibility or strategic growth option value. While some infrastructure asset acquisitions may involve financial transactions whose value derives primarily from their expected cash flows, many of these infrastructure investments provide a platform and create the strategic context within which the firm can grow. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10897/ 2008-01-07T00:00:00Z This paper shows that the presence of conditional staging in R&D (Research & Development) has a critical impact on portfolio risk, and changes diversification arguments when a portfolio is constructed. When R&D projects exhibit option-like characteristics, correlation between projects plays a more complicated role than traditional portfolio diversification would suggest. Real option theory argues that research projects with conditional phases have option-like risk and return properties, and are different from unconditional projects. We show that although the risk of a portfolio always depends on the correlation between projects, a portfolio of conditional R&D projects with real option characteristics has fundamentally different risk than a portfolio of unconditional projects. When conditional R&D projects are negatively correlated, portfolio risk is hardly reduced by diversification. When projects are positively correlated, however, diversification is more effective than these tools predict. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9147/ 2007-03-08T00:00:00Z This paper explains why consolidation acquisitions occur in waves and it predicts the differing role each firm is likely to play in the consolidation game. We propose that whether a firm assumes the role of rival consolidator, target, or passive observer depends on the position of the firm relative to the entity that merges first. Our model predicts that an initial acquisition triggers a wave of follow-on acquisitions, where the process of asset accumulation by the consolidator is accelerated since the value of follow-on acquisitions is enhanced by the more concentrated industry structure. An initial consolidation can trigger a consolidating acquisition by a rival in a remote market segment, while some firms prefer to be a target and others remain passive observers that await the outcome of the consolidation process rather than merge amongst themselves. Fragmentation, demand uncertainty, and investment costs determine the timing of acquisitions. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/12235/ 2007-02-01T00:00:00Z This article demonstrates how to use strategic options and games to quantify the option value of technology investments. Research and product development in electronics, capacity expansion in telecommunications or strategic acquisitions to enter new markets are examples of strategic investments that are difficult to analyse based on standard discounted cash flow approaches. Yet these decisions determine a firm's competitive success in a dynamic technological and competitive landscape. How much is such a strategic option worth? How does one analyse strategic options in a dynamic, competitive environment? We describe basic principles for analysing competitive strategies under uncertainty by incorporating game theory in real options analysis. We show how executives can analyse high-stakes multi-stage investment decisions under uncertainty, both under a proprietary setting and under different kinds of competitive structures. The analysis can apply in the last stage of commercialisation or in the innovation/R&D stage. Our proposed valuation of competitive investment strategies can help answer strategic questions such as: When should an innovator take a tough stance to pre-empt market share and force its rival to retreat, and when should it take an accommodating stance to avoid a retaliation and intensified competition? When should a firm co-operate (e.g. via joint R&D ventures) and when should it choose head-on competition (e.g. innovation races)? Step-by-step illustrative analyses provide guidelines that practitioners can adapt in realistic settings. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/12236/ 2007-01-01T00:00:00Z In this study, we develop implications of imperfect competition on the return distribution of strategic growth options. We integrate real option theory with a Cournot-Nash framework in which two firms choose output levels endogenously and may have investment-timing differences. Simulations show that traditional option variables are significant determinants for the moments of the return distribution. In addition, uncertain preemption may introduce discontinuities in the payoff of the option that increase skewness and kurtosis. When first-mover advantages are crucial and sustainable, investment-timing differences between competitors can result in bimodal return distributions, where the firm with the first-mover advantage has a high probability of generating high returns. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/12269/ 2007-01-01T00:00:00Z In de laatste decennia heeft private equity zich ontwikkeld tot een belangrijke component van ondernemingsfi nanciering. Private equity is een bron van fi nanciering voor start-up ondernemingen, private middelgrote ondernemingen, ondernemingen die geherstructureerd worden of onder nemingen die hun beursnotering willen beëindigen. De ontwikkelingsgang van private equity kent een golfpatroon dat gekenmerkt wordt door perioden van expansie en perioden van verschansing. Dit artikel beschrijft aan de hand van de recente literatuur de privateequitygolf, en de consequenties voor de verschillende partijen in de markt voor private equity, zoals de ondernemingen die privaat gefi nancierd worden, de investeringsmaatschappijen en de verschaffers van privaat vermogen. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7815/ 2006-04-28T00:00:00Z This study presents a dynamic model for the private equity market in which information revelation and uncertainty rationally explain the cyclical pattern of investment flows into private equity. The net benefit of private equity over public equity is i) uncertain and ii) agents have private information about the benefits of their investment. When these distinguishing characteristics determine investment behavior in private equity markets, rational investment waves may arise endogenously. Investment behavior reveals private information on the benefits of private equity financing and may trigger a cascade when investors jump on the bandwagon and invest irrespective of their private information content. We argue that the procyclical behavior of private equity volumes is strengthened by the revelation of information on the benefits of private equity investments. The occurrence and length of such waves in the market for private equity depend on the capabilities of agents. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6621/ 2005-01-01T00:00:00Z This paper uses a unified treatment of real options and game theory to examine value appropriation in takeovers within a competitive environment of imperfect information. The integrated model considers a potential target as a shared real option on a bundle of resources. Competing potential buyers may sequentially perform due diligence and incur costs (option premium) to become informed about their firm-specific target value (underlying value) before making a bid (exercise price). The first player’s bid provides a signal on its own and rivals’ target value, thereby affecting potential bidders’ option value. The level of information costs and the option value, affected by heterogeneity between bidders (correlation), their expected target value, and uncertainty, determine value appropriation in acquisitions. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/12234/ 2004-01-01T00:00:00Z Corporate finance and corporate strategy have long been seen as different sides of the same coin. Though both focus on the same broad problem, investment decision-making, the gap between the two sides--and between theory and practice--remains embarrassingly large. This book synthesizes cutting-edge developments in corporate finance and related fields--in particular, real options and game theory--to help bridge this gap. In clear, straightforward exposition and through numerous examples and applications from various industries, Han Smit and Lenos Trigeorgis set forth an extended valuation framework for competitive strategies. The book follows a problem-solving approach that synthesizes ideas from game theory, real options, and strategy. Thinking in terms of options-games can help managers address questions such as: When is it best to invest early to preempt competitive entry, and when to wait? Should a firm compete in R&D or adopt an accommodating stance? How does one value growth options or infrastructure investments? The authors provide a wide range of valuation examples, such as acquisition strategies, R&D investment in high-tech sectors, joint research ventures, product introductions in consumer electronics, infrastructure, and oil exploration investment. Representing a major step beyond standard real options or strategy analysis, and extending the power of real options and strategic thinking in a rigorous fashion, Strategic Investment will be an indispensable guide and resource for corporate managers, MBA students, and academics alike. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/12270/ 2004-01-01T00:00:00Z Terwijl de grote golf van buyouts in de jaren tachtig voornamelijk tot doel had logge conglomeraten die aan zware agencyproblemen en inefficiënties onderhevig waren te herstructureren, werd de tweede grote golf in de jaren negentig tot 2001 veelal gekenmerkt door een totaal andere waardestuwer, namelijk het nastreven van groei. Na deze golf werd het door de economische stagnatie en de waardedaling van de financiële markten steeds moeilijker een exit route te vinden naar een strategische speler of de beurs, met een toename van het aantal secondary buyouts als gevolg. In dit artikel geef ik een overzicht van deze recente economische ontwikkelingen in de buyout-markt en stel ik een raamwerk voor dat deze ontwikkelingen relateert aan gevestigde economische theorieën. Dit waarderingsraamwerk van private overnames integreert de verschillende waardecreërende factoren met een waardering en geeft de mogelijkheid om ieder type buyout op correcte wijze te waarderen. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/302/ 2003-03-31T00:00:00Z The development of theory about private equity during the last decades follows the pattern of economic development. While buyouts have found their origin in restructuring we observe more recently a trend of facilitating growth, where the firm and financier follow a path of acquisitions. A traditional valuation analysis approaches the investment problem from the perspective of a single transaction. New trends ask for an expanded valuation framework, not only to evaluate individual acquisitions but to shape the strategic thinking process. This address describes a framework for applying real options and game theory to strategy planning and valuation. It treats an acquisition strategy as a package of corporate real options, actively managed by the firm in a context of competitive responses or changing market conditions. Combining the quantitative options models developed in finance with game theory principles from economics and the qualitative insights from strategic management theory provides a richer framework that helps us better understand the restructuring of fragmented markets. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/12258/ 2003-01-01T00:00:00Z The paper illustrates the use of real options and game theory principles to value prototypical investment projects and capture important competitive/strategic dimensions in a step-by-step analysis of investment decisions (options) under uncertainty. It first illustrates the application of real options principles to a mining concession and to an R&D program. It then provides examples from innovation cases and uses basic game theory principles to discuss other strategic and competitive aspects, especially applicable to oligopolistic industries like consumer electronics. The issue of whether (and when) it is optimal to compete independently or coordinate/collaborate (e.g., via joint R&D ventures or strategic alliances) is given particular attention. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/12259/ 2001-01-01T00:00:00Z This paper draws on research that integrates real options with game theory for a forthcoming book that I co-authored with Lenos Trigeorgis entitled "Investment Strategy: Options and Games," (Princeton University Press, 2002). The examples mentioned in this paper have the sole purpose of explaining the theoretical concepts. I would like to thank Roelof O. Prins for useful insights. I am further indebted to Janice Willett, Don Chew, Ward van den Berg, and Hans Haanappel for their comments. The views expressed in this paper and any potential mistakes are, of course, my own. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/12266/ 1997-01-01T00:00:00Z Describes the valuation of a complex capital project, the staged development of an oil field concession in the Netherlands. Stages of offshore petroleum development on the Dutch continental shelf; Asset valuation based on replication in financial markets; Major insights and conclusions. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/12268/ 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z Presents a real options and game-theoretic approach to corporate investment strategy under competition. Analysis of aspects of competition in a microeconomic framework; Forecasting of operating cash inflows based on economic rents or excess profits; Implications of results obtained.