http://repub.eur.nl/res/aut/8786/ List of Publications en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/20279/ 2010-06-01T00:00:00Z In 2003, the World Bank (WB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and de Boer and Missaglia (DBM) constructed models for the estimation of the 2002 macro-economic indicators of the economy of Palestine. In 2007, IMF and WB provided the consensus estimates of these figures using data that are more up-to-date and more complete than those available in 2003. This note proposes an ex-post evaluation of the predictive performance of the models of WB, DBM and IMF. A comparison of the models of WB and DBM, which are both micro-founded computable general equilibrium models using the same data, reveals that DBM strongly outperforms WB. We argue that the shortening of the time horizon and the quantity adjustment following the dramatic shock explain why our model performs much better. A comparison of DBM with IMF (a simple macro-founded income-expenditure model) also shows that our model performs better. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10558/ 2007-09-28T00:00:00Z We give an assessment of the loss in the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and nominal gross national income (GNI) due to twenty- seven months of intifada. It is based on the modest growth scenario given by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) in their first assessment of the economic developments in 2006 in Palestine. It turns out that the assessed loss is equivalent to the GDP of 1997 and the GNI in 1999: one year on two (and a quarter). Moreover, we show that our 2004 estimates of macro figures of 2002, based on a static computable general equilibrium model, are closer to the 2007 consensus estimates by IMF and WB than the 2003 estimates of IMF, based on an income-expenditure model. We argue that the shortening of the time horizon and the quantity adjustment following the dramatic shock explain why our model performs better. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7753/ 2006-05-01T00:00:00Z A popular functional form for modeling the consumption block of a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) is the Linear Expenditure System (LES) for which the Engel curves are straight lines. The LES does not allow for the existence of inferior commodities, elastic demand and for gross substitution. To calibrate the parameters outside information on income elasticities and on the expenditure elasticity of the marginal utility of expenditure (Frisch parameter) is needed. In this paper we propose to use the Indirect Addilog System (IAS) that allows for non-straight Engel curves, inferior commodities, elastic demand and gross substitution, and for which the outside data requirement is the same as for LES. In the empirical part we estimate the income elasticities of the IAS from the 1998 Palestinian Expenditure and Consumption Survey (PECS). We replace the LES consumption block with a priori fixed income elasticities of the CGE model, that we previously constructed for Palestine based on the 1998 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), by the IAS with estimated income elasticities and perform a sensitivity analysis for the choice of the Frisch parameter. A comparison with the results obtained by the LES-model with the same income elasticities makes it possible to further clarify the importance of using a IAS to represent consumption behaviors. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/19274/ 2006-03-01T00:00:00Z Abstract In 2003 the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published estimates of macro-economic indicators for 2002 of the economy of Palestine. The WB used a micro-founded recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, calibrated on the 1998 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Palestine, to which shocks were applied, whereas the IMF based its estimates on a macro-founded income-expenditure model relying on more recent data. It turned out that there were substantial differences: the estimate by the WB of the real gross national income (at 1998 prices) was 25% less than the corresponding figure calculated by the IMF. This huge difference is not only relevant for a full understanding of the economic consequences of the intifada, but also for the size of the international community intervention. In this paper we propose our own evaluation with the help of a static CGE model, based on the 1998 SAM and the so-called intifada shock derived from data of the WB that we constructed for the analysis of some forms of emergency assistance in a previous article. It turns out that our estimates, based on an entirely different methodology, are remarkably close to those of the IMF. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6851/ 2005-06-01T00:00:00Z A popular functional form for modeling the consumption block of a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) is the Linear Expenditure System (LES) for which the Engel curves are straight lines. To allow for more general shapes two other systems have been proposed in recent literature: An Implicitly Directly Additive Demand System (AIDADS, a generalization of LES) and the Specialized Constant Differences of Elasticities (CDE) system. To calibrate the parameters outside information on all income elasticities and all own price elasticities is needed, whereas LES only requires information on income elasticities and the Frisch parameter. In this paper we consider a special case of CDE, the Indirect Addilog System (IAS) that allows for non-straight Engel curves, whereas its outside data requirement is the same as for LES. The only disadvantage is that all cross price elasticities of a particular price are the same. In many developing countries there is hardly any information on price responses so that the AIDADS and CDE cannot be used. We propose the use of IAS rather than LES. In the empirical part we use IAS in a CGE model for Palestine and show that predictions of macro-economic indicators are remarkably close to those of IMF. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6563/ 2005-05-25T00:00:00Z In 2003 the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published estimates of macro-economic indicators for 2002 of the economy of Palestine. WB used a micro-founded recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, calibrated on the 1998 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Palestine, to which shocks were applied, whereas IMF based its estimates on a macro-founded income-expenditure model relying on more recent data. It turned out that there were substantial differences: the estimate by WB of the real Gross National Income (at 1998 prices) was 25% less than the corresponding figure calculated by IMF. This huge difference is not only relevant for a full understanding of the economic consequences of the intifada, but also for the size of the international community intervention. In this paper we propose our own evaluation with the help of a static CGE model, based on the 1998 SAM and the so-called intifada shock derived from data of WB, that we constructed for the analysis of some forms of emergency assistance in a previous article. It turns out that our estimates, based on an entirely different methodology, are remarkably close to those of IMF.