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Terasvirta, T.
( T. Terasvirta)
model series parameter transition change forecast function time series tv-star tv-star model cycle linearity nonlinear statistic star model business result terasvirta value journal hypothesis testing 1.000 autoregressive forecasting difference nonlinearity speci pattern section business cycle ar-nn ar model table seasonality parameter constancy regime lstar lstar model example modelling tv-ar star models number nonlinear models production unemployment rate procedure alternative variable fi rst differences tv-ar model shock fication constancy time-varying level network approach unemployment output figure estimate residual svirta franse ar-nn models effect horizon p-value quarter van dijk specification power variation point country production series 1.001 property