http://repub.eur.nl/res/col/7940/ List of Publications en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8104/ 1998-01-01T00:00:00Z Reprint of the orginally published version in International Social Science Journal (UNESCO), Vol. 11, No.3, 1959, pp. 351-360. In French: La Planification de la Politique Economique, Revue Internationale des Sciences Sociales, 1998, pp. 383-392 Tinbergen, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15471/ 1996-01-01T00:00:00Z Tinbergen, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7941/ 1995-01-01T00:00:00Z The author considers the problem of the duration of development and its consequences for development assistance, in the developing as well as developed countries. Emphasis is given to the influence of development aid and it is argued that the time dimension has important policy implications and requires further thoroughgoing theoretical analysis. Also published in: Kurt Dopfer (Ed.), The Global Dimension of Economic Evolution: knowledge variety and diffusion in economic growth and development, Physica Verlag, Heidelberg, 1995, pp. 1153-159 Tinbergen, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7946/ 1994-01-01T00:00:00Z Special contribution in Chapter 4, Human Development Report 1994. Also published in: Internationale Samenwerking, Special Issue, November 1994, p. 15 Tinbergen, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15470/ 1993-03-01T00:00:00Z Tinbergen, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10054/ 1992-01-01T00:00:00Z In the last five years humanity has become faced with the problem of the optimal socioeconomic order more clearly than ever. After the confrontation of capitalism and socialism, which was the core of the Marxist thesis, the fact transpired that capitalism was not the optimal order. It was eliminated in two different ways. In Western economies capitalism was reformed stepwise by pulling its sharpest teeth, while maintaining the stimulating forces in the markets. As to communist economies - the Soviet Union changed capitalism via the 1917 October revolution and China followed. In 1986, Mikhail Gorbachev's view that the communist system did not work was accepted by the Soviet Union communist party congress. Now, in 1992, the world is discussing, more urgently than ever, what the best ('optimal') socio-economic order is; how much reintroduction of capitalism is necessary to attain the best order? This essay discusses the simplest possible model that can contribute to the discussion. The advantage of building the simplest possible model is twofold. Firstly, such a model can state the nature or essence of an optimal order. Secondly, it can indicate the order of magnitude of the main characteristic of an optimal order. The main characteristic - the question that separated socialists from other politicians - is the redistribution of income. Within a single nation, redistribution is achieved by taxes and social security contributions. In the world economy, redistribution is accomplished by development assistance and trade policy. In this essay the language used is that of the industrial economy, in which the two groups considered are labour and capital. The model can be translated into another in which the two groups are the developed and underdeveloped countries. It may even be translated into a security model of two powers, in which redistribution is obtained by security assistance (see J. Tinbergen, World Security and Equity, Aldershot, 1990), or a colonial system. In the last version not the common welfare will be maximized, but the welfare of the colonial powers, which leads to negative redistribution (the exploitation of the colonies). Tinbergen, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7953/ 1992-01-01T00:00:00Z Tinbergen, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15533/ 1991-08-28T00:00:00Z Het ontwikkelingsproces is het afgelopen jaar niet versneld, ondanks het eigen belang dat westerse landen hebben bij het geven van meer ontwikkelingshulp. Tinbergen, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10055/ 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z Integration is the combination of previously sovereign areas into a larger sovereign area. Its opposite is disintegration or secession. Throughout history a large number of both has occurred, but the integration process has been stronger and the net result is a considerable degree of integration. Two main measures may be used to characterize the phenomenon: the reduction per annum r of the number of sovereign areas and the growth per annum g of the number of areas which become member of the larger area into which they have been integrated. Both r and g are fractions; in r the numerator is the new number of areas and the denominator the previous number. In g the numerator and denominator are, respectively, the denominator and the numerator of r. If the process takes more than one year, say five years, the fifth root of the fraction must be taken; likewise for other figures. Tinbergen, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7954/ 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z The author believes in the measurability of welfare (also called satisfaction or utility). Measure- ments have been made in the United States (Jorgenson and collaborators), France (Allais), and the Netherlands (Van Praag and collaborators). The Israeli sociologists Levy and Guttman have shown that numerous noneconomic variables are among the determinants of welfare. The determinants are numerous; the author proposes a list of about fifty. Various mathematical functions have been proposed, of which the logarithm of the determinants shows the highest correlation with welfare, as measured. Tinbergen, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7955/ 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z Tinbergen (1988) describes his method of conducting economic research. In contrast to Dopfer (1988), the subject of mechanics is avoided, and the method deals only with economics. The purpose of economic research is seen as either: 1. an attempt to explain an economic phenomenon, or 2. the recommendation of an economic policy or structure. No use is made of any philosophy of science concepts. An important characteristic of Tinbergen's views is that he deals with qualitative and quantitative aspects of economic research. The difference between quantitative and qualitative problems is that the former are solved completely only after measurement and mathematical solution with the aid of a model, whereas the latter do not require the tools of measurement and mathematical solution. In a reply, Dopfer comments on Tinbergen's belief that both quantitative and qualitative research is important in economics. He notes that such an insight can have various interpretations, depending on the viewpoint of the researcher. Tinbergen, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15516/ 1990-11-07T00:00:00Z Dat de vermindering van het inkomensverschil tussen ontwikkelde en onderontwikkelde landen, het ontwikkelingsproces, een lange tijd zal vergen weten we. Maar hoe lang dat proces zal duren is lets waarover weinig wordt gesproken. Het blijft bij vage uitdrukkingen, zoals eeuwen en decennia. In dit artikel wil ik trachten om met wat concretere getallen te komen. Dat wil overigens niet zeggen dat deze al te letterlijk genomen moeten worden. Wij zullen het resultaat in drie fasen bespreken. Tinbergen, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15518/ 1990-09-19T00:00:00Z In ESB van 15 augustus 1990 uit collega W. Brand bedenkingen tegen de opzet van de vereniging Economen voor Vrede. Hij verdenkt de vereniging van vooropgestelde gevoelens jegens het militaire apparaat in plaats van een wetenschappeiijke houding van analyse van de problemen van veiligheid. Dit laatste echter is juist wat de vereniging, blijkens artikel 3 van haar statuten, nastreeft. De veiligheid die door Brand terecht als de centrale doelstelling wordt genoemd, wordt in artikel 3 duidelijk vermeld. Brand's toevoeging dat het niet om vrede, maar om veiligheid gaat doet wat vreemd aan. Tinbergen, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15529/ 1990-09-19T00:00:00Z De mislukking van de centraal geplande volkshuishouding heeft velen, economen en politic!, tot het aanbevelen van vrije markten geleid. Juist na de herdenking van Adam Smith was dat een zegetocht van het beroemde stelsel van 'laissez faire' en vooral liberalen (in de Europese zin) voelden zich de overwinnaars van de strijd tussen centrale planning en 'laissez faire. In English: Should All Markets Be Free? In: Soumitra Sharma (Ed.), Development Policy, St. Martin’s Press, New York / Macmillan, London, 1992, pp. 81-82 Tinbergen, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15527/ 1989-12-06T00:00:00Z De initiatieven die de laatste jaren doorde huidige secretaris-generaal van de Communistische partij (intussen ook president) van de Sovjetunie zijn genomen, hebben nieuwe mogelijkheden geschapen tot verbetering van de verhouding tussen Oost en West. Die initiatieven liggen in hoofdzaak op twee gebieden. In de eerste plaats op dat van de wapenvermindering en in de tweede plaats op dat van het maatschappelijke stelsel van de Sovjetunie. Tinbergen, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15517/ 1989-07-12T00:00:00Z In ESB van 3 mei vraagt collega Heertje terecht aandacht voor het vraagstuk van de verdeling van de beschikbare natuurlljke hulpbronnen tussen de thans levende mensheid en onze nakomelingen. Om het zeer grote belang van een bevredigende oplossing van dit vraagstuk te onderstepen, neb ik in deze notitie de eenvoudigst denkbare versie waarin het zich voordoet samengevat. Tinbergen, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7956/ 1989-01-01T00:00:00Z I am pleased and grateful for the opportunity science. to present here some remarks on the interrelation-Generally speaking this subject of ‘science ships of the forecasting capacity of sciences. I geography’ deserves a more systematic treatment hope that my remarks may be considered a useful than is usual. An example or common practice is comment on forecasting; I don’t claim any origi-given in table 1, which is used by the Royal Dutch nality, though. Others have worked on this subject Academy of Sciences. A systematic subdivision more than I have: see, e.g., Intriligator (1988), must satisfy the well-known conditions that the Nordhaus (1987), Theil (1958, 1966), to mention a individual elementary areas few. Tinbergen, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7957/ 1989-01-01T00:00:00Z is argued that action can be undertaken to reduce unemployment. However, such action needs to be taken on a basis of internationally coordinated policies to combat unemployment. Initially, there is a need for the EEC member countries to formulate a coherent programme to deal with this problem. Yet this is unlikely to be adequate. The intriguing idea is floated that the EEC countries can learn from the policies pursued in Japan. Ultimately, it is hoped that cooperation between the EEC and Japan can form the basis of an adventurous initiative to attack unemployment. Tinbergen, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/15530/ 1988-04-13T00:00:00Z In 1982 werd door de gezamenlijke NAVO-landen 5% van het bruto nationale produkt aan militaire uitgaven besteed en door de landen van het Warschau-pact 9%. Tegelijkertijd bedragen de uitgaven van deze landen aan ontwikkelingshulp nog geen 0,5% van het bnp. Het is evident dat de Internationale spanningen aanzienlijk zouden kunnen worden verminderd als deze cijfers anders zouden liggen. De auteur werkt - samen met anderen - al enige tijd aan modellen waarin de relatie tussen ontwapening en ontwikkeling centraal staat. In dit artikel worden enkele van de tot nu bereikte resultaten gepresenteerd. Tinbergen, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7958/ 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Tinbergen, J.