http://repub.eur.nl/res/concept/jel-C13/ Recent publications classified by JEL Code C13 en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/23120/ 2011-04-27T00:00:00Z This paper examines risk transmission and migration among six US measures of credit and market risk during the full period 2004-2011 period and the 2009-2011 recovery subperiod, with a focus on four sectors related to the highly volatile oil price. There are more long-run equilibrium risk relationships and short-run causal relationships among the four oil-related Credit Default Swaps (CDS) indexes, the (expected equity volatility) VIX index and the (swaption expected volatility) SMOVE index for the full period than for the recovery subperiod. The auto sector CDS spread is the most error-correcting in the long run and also leads in the risk discovery process in the short run. On the other hand, the CDS spread of the highly regulated, natural monopoly utility sector does not error correct. The four oil-related CDS spread indexes are responsive to VIX in the short- and long-run, while no index is sensitive to SMOVE which, in turn, unilaterally assembles risk migration from VIX. The 2007-2008 Great Recession seems to have led to “localization” and less migration of credit and market risk in the oil-related sectors. Hammoudeh, S.M. Liu, T. Chang, C.L. McAleer, M.J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/20281/ 2010-07-01T00:00:00Z The validity of family background variables instrumenting education in income regressions has been much criticized. In this paper, we use data of the 2004 German Socio-Economic Panel and Bayesian analysis in order to analyze to what degree violations of the strong validity assumption affect the estimation results. We show that, in case of moderate direct effects of the instrument on the dependent variable, the results do not deviate much from the benchmark case of no such effect (perfect validity of the instrument). The size of the bias is in many cases smaller than the standard error of education’s estimated coefficient. Thus, the violation of the strict validity assumption does not necessarily lead to strongly different results when compared to the strict validity case. This provides confidence in the use of family background variables as instruments in income regressions. Hoogerheide, L.F. Block, J.H. Thurik, A.R. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10904/ 2008-01-15T00:00:00Z We introduce the realized co-range, utilizing intraday high-low price ranges to estimate asset return covariances. Using simulations we find that for plausible levels of bid-ask bounce and infrequent and non-synchronous trading the realized co-range improves upon the realized covariance, which uses cross-products of intraday returns. One advantage of the co-range is that in an ideal world it is five times more efficient than the realized covariance when sampling at the same frequency. The second advantage is that the upward bias due to bid-ask bounce and the downward bias due to infrequent and non-synchronous trading partially offset each other. In a volatility timing strategy for S\\&P500, bond and gold futures we find that the co-range estimates are less noisy as exemplified by lower transaction costs and also higher Sharpe ratios when using more weight on recent data for predicting covariances. Bannouh, K. Dijk, D.J.C. van Martens, M.P.E. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10751/ 2007-11-27T00:00:00Z The Dutch drinking water sector experienced two drastic changes over the last 10 years. Firstly, in 1997, the sector association started with a voluntary benchmarking aimed to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of the sector. Secondly, merger activity arose. This paper develops a tailored nonparametric model to dissect and distinguish the effects on efficiency of these two evolutions. In particular, we adapt Free Disposal Hull (FDH) to estimate robust and conditional non-oriented efficiency estimates. Parametric COLS (Fourier) tests show the robustness of the model with respect to the specification and its variables. We classify the merger economies into scale economies and increased incentives to fight inefficiencies. Although we detect a significant efficiency enhancing effect of benchmarking, we find insignificant merger economies due to the absence of scale economies and the absence of increased incentives to fight inefficiencies. Witte, K. de Dijkgraaf, E. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8077/ 2006-11-06T00:00:00Z Using a comprehensive international trade data set we investigate empirical regularities (known as Zipf’s Law or the rank-size rule) for the distribution of the interaction between countries as measured by revealed comparative advantage. Using the recently developed estimator by Gabaix and Ibragimov (2006) we find strong evidence in favor of the rank-size rule along the time, country, and sector dimension for three different levels of data aggregation. The estimated power exponents that characterize the distribution of revealed comparative advantage are stable over time but differ between countries and sectors. These differences are related empirically to country and sector characteristics, including population size, GDP, and factor intensities. Hinloopen, J. Marrewijk, J.G.M. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7974/ 2006-08-15T00:00:00Z Steel structures like bridges, tanks and pylons are exposed to outdoor weathering conditions. In order to prevent them from corrosion they are protected by organic coating systems. This paper focuses on modelling the deterioration of the organic coating layer that protects steel structures from corrosion. Only if there is sufficient knowledge of the condition of the coating on these structures, maintenance actions can be done in the most efficient way. Therefore the course of the deterioration of the coating system and its lifetime, which is also of importance for doing maintenance, have to be assessed accurately. In this paper three different stochastic processes, viz. Brownian motion with non-linear drift, the non-stationary gamma process and a two-stage hit-and-grow physical process, are fitted to two real data sets. In this way we are the first who compare the three stochastic processes empirically on criteria such as goodness-of-fit, computational convenience and ease of implementation. The first data set is based on expert judgement; the second consists of inspection results. In the first case the model parameters are obtained by a least squares approach, in the second case by the method of maximum likelihood. A meta-analysis is performed on the two-stage hit-and-grow model by means of fitting Brownian motion and gamma process to the outcomes of this model. Nicolai, R.P. Dekker, R. Noortwijk, J.M. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/13216/ 2006-07-01T00:00:00Z We propose a novel statistic to test the rank of a matrix. The rank statistic overcomes deficiencies of existing rank statistics, like: a Kronecker covariance matrix for the canonical correlation rank statistic of Anderson [Annals of Mathematical Statistics (1951), 22, 327–351] sensitivity to the ordering of the variables for the LDU rank statistic of Cragg and Donald [Journal of the American Statistical Association (1996), 91, 1301–1309] and Gill and Lewbel [Journal of the American Statistical Association (1992), 87, 766–776] a limiting distribution that is not a standard chi-squared distribution for the rank statistic of Robin and Smith [Econometric Theory (2000), 16, 151–175] usage of numerical optimization for the objective function statistic of Cragg and Donald [Journal of Econometrics (1997), 76, 223–250] and ignoring the non-negativity restriction on the singular values in Ratsimalahelo [2002, Rank test based on matrix perturbation theory. Unpublished working paper, U.F.R. Science Economique, University de Franche-Comté]. In the non-stationary cointegration case, the limiting distribution of the new rank statistic is identical to that of the Johansen trace statistic. Kleibergen, F.R. Paap, R. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/11653/ 2005-06-01T00:00:00Z We modify the paper of Stahl (1989) [Stahl, D.O., 1989. Oligopolistic pricing with sequential consumer search. American Economic Review 79, 700–12] by relaxing the assumption that consumers obtain the first price quotation for free. When all price quotations are costly to obtain, the unique symmetric equilibrium need not involve full consumer participation. The region of parameters for which non-shoppers do not fully participate in the market becomes larger as the number of shoppers decreases and/or the number of firms increases. The comparative statics properties of this new type of equilibrium are interesting. In particular, expected price increases as search cost decreases and is constant in the number of shoppers and in the number of firms. Welfare falls as firms enter the market. We show that monopoly pricing never obtains with truly costly search. Janssen, M.C.W. Moraga-Gonzalez, J.L. Wildenbeest, M.R. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/1472/ 2004-08-11T00:00:00Z We derive an estimator for Black-Scholes-Merton implied volatility that, when compared to the familiar Corrado & Miller [JBaF, 1996] estimator, has substantially higher approximation accuracy and extends over a wider region of moneyness. Hallerbach, W.G.P.M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6628/ 2004-06-01T00:00:00Z This paper presents an empirical examination of oligopoly pricing and consumer search. The theoretical model allows for sequential and non-sequential search and using the theoretical restrictions firm and consumer behavior impose on the data we study the empirical validity of the models. Two equilibria arise: one with costless search and the other with costly search. We find that the costless search equilibrium works well for products with a relatively low value, and, by implication, a small number of sellers. By contrast, the costly search equilibrium explains the observed data in a manner that is consistent with the underlying theoretical model for almost all products (for 86 out of 87!). Janssen, M.C.W. Moraga-Gonzalez, J.L. Wildenbeest, M.R. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6629/ 2004-06-01T00:00:00Z We modify the paper of Stahl (1989) on sequential consumer search in an oligopoly context by relaxing the assumption that consumers obtain the first price quotation for free. When all price quotations are costly to obtain, a new equilibrium arises where consumers randomize between not searching at all and searching for one price. The region of parameters for which this equilibrium exists becomes larger as the number of shoppers decreases and/or the number of firms increases. The comparative statics properties of this new equilibrium are interesting. In particular, the expected price increases as search cost decreases, and is constant in the number of shoppers and in the number of firms. We show that the Diamond result never obtains with truly costly search. Janssen, M.C.W. Moraga-Gonzalez, J.L. Wildenbeest, M.R. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/927/ 2003-09-25T00:00:00Z In this paper we explore the theoretical and empirical problems of estimating average (excess) return and risk of US equities over various holding periods and sample periods. Our findings are relevant for performance evaluation, for estimating the historical equity risk premium, and for investment simulation. Using a unique set of US equity data series, comprising monthly prices and dividends based on consistent definitions over the 132 year period 1871-2002, we investigate the complex effect of temporal return aggregation and sample estimation error. Our major finding is that holding period risk and return statistics show an extraordinary sensitivity to the choice of the starting point in calendar time. For example, over the period 1926-2002 there is a difference of almost 140 basis points between the average annual total return starting in January compared to starting in July, and a difference of almost 7 (!) percentage points in estimated annual volatility. This is yet another way in which stock price seasonality manifests itself, but this ambiguity in the underlying estimation process seems completely neglected in the current literature. Hallerbach, W.G.P.M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/928/ 2003-09-25T00:00:00Z In this paper we explore the relevance of dividends in the total equity return over longer time horizons. In addition, we investigate the effects of different reinvestment assumptions of dividends. We use a unique set of revised and corrected US equity data series, comprising monthly prices and dividends based on consistent definitions over the period 1871-2002 (132 years). Our findings are relevant for performance evaluation, for estimating the historical equity risk premium, and for investment simulation. Hallerbach, W.G.P.M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/1081/ 2003-08-07T00:00:00Z We consider eight different proxies (issued amount, coupon, listed, age, missing prices, yield volatility, number of contributors and yield dispersion) to measure corporate bond liquidity and use a five-variable model to control for interest rate risk, credit risk, maturity, rating and currency differences between bonds. The null hypothesis that liquidity risk is not priced in our data set of euro corporate bonds is rejected for seven out of eight liquidity proxies. We find significant liquidity premia, ranging from 9 to 24 basis points. A comparison test between liquidity proxies shows limited differences between the proxies. Houweling, P. Mentink, A.A. Vorst, A.C.F. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/1083/ 2003-08-07T00:00:00Z In this paper we compare market prices of credit default swaps with model prices. We show that a simple reduced form model with a constant recovery rate outperforms the market practice of directly comparing bonds' credit spreads to default swap premiums. We find that the model works well for investment grade credit default swaps, but only if we use swap or repo rates as proxy for default-free interest rates. This indicates that the government curve is no longer seen as the reference default-free curve. We also show that the model is insensitive to the value of the assumed recovery rate Houweling, P. Vorst, A.C.F. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/1681/ 2003-02-17T00:00:00Z We propose a novel statistic to test the rank of a matrix. The rank statistic overcomes deficiencies of existing rank statistics, like: necessity of a Kronecker covariance matrix for the canonical correlation rank statistic of Anderson (1951), sensitivity to the ordering of the variables for the LDU rank statistic of Cragg and Donald (1996) and Gill and Lewbel (1992), a limiting distribution that is not a standard chi-squared distribution for the rank statistic of Robin and Smith (2000) and usage of numerical optimization for the objective function statistic of Cragg and Donald (1997). The new rank statistic consists of a quadratic form of a (orthogonal) transformation of the smallest singular values of a unrestricted estimate of the matrix of interest. The quadratic form is taken with respect to the inverse of a unrestricted covariance matrix that can be estimated using a heteroscedasticity autocorrelation consistent estimator. The rank statistic has a standard chi squared limiting distribution. In case of a Kronecker covariance matrix, the rank statistic simplifies to the canonical correlation rank statistic. In the non-stationary cointegration case, the limiting distribution of the rank statistic is identical to that of the Johansen trace statistic. We apply the rank statistic to test for the rank of a matrix that governs the identification of the parameters in the stochastic discount factor model of Jagannathan and Wang (1996). The rank statistic shows that non-identification of the parameters can not be rejected. We further use the stochastic discount factor model to illustrate the validity of the limiting distribution and to conduct a power comparison. Kleibergen, F.R. Paap, R. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6713/ 2003-02-13T00:00:00Z We consider eight different measures (issued amount, coupon, listed, age, missing prices, price volatility, number of contributors and yield dispersion) to approximate corporate bond liquidity and use a five-variable model to control for maturity, credit and currency differences between bonds. The null hypothesis that liquidity risk is not priced in our data set of euro corporate bonds is rejected for seven out of eight liquidity measures. We find significant liquidity premia, ranging from 9 to 24 basis points. A comparison test between liquidity measures shows that some ways to measure liquidity are better than others. Houweling, P. Mentink, A.A. Vorst, A.C.F. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6715/ 2003-02-06T00:00:00Z We value rating-triggered step-up bonds with three methods: (i) the Jarrow, Lando and Turnbull (1997, JLT) framework, (ii) a similar framework using historical probabilities and (iii) as plain vanilla bonds. We find that the market seems to value single step-up bonds according to the JLT model, while it values multiple step-up bonds as plain vanilla bonds. Further, step-up feature market premiums are more volatile than JLT and historical premiums, and the JLT model approximates market premiums always better than the historical method. Finally, most step-up bonds offer a cushion against rating migrations via dampened price movements. Houweling, P. Mentink, A.A. Vorst, A.C.F. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/172/ 2002-02-27T00:00:00Z Abstract: In this paper we compare market prices of credit default swaps with model prices. We show that a simple reduced form model with a constant recovery rate outperforms the market practice of directly comparing bonds' credit spreads to default swap premiums. We find that the model works well for investment grade credit default swaps, but only if we use swap or repo rates as proxy for default-free interest rates. This indicates that the government curve is no longer seen as the reference default-free curve. We also show that the model is insensitive to the value of the assumed recovery rate. Keywords: credit default swaps, credit derivatives, credit risk, default risk, default-free interest rates Houweling, P. Vorst, A.C.F. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6823/ 2002-02-06T00:00:00Z This paper concentrates on negatively skewed one-sided distributions as an explanation of the occurence of positive (negative) skewness in the case of stochastic production (cost) frontier analysis. It takes as example the binomial distribution that can have negative or positive skew and derives the method-of-moments estimators. Carree, M.A.