http://repub.eur.nl/res/concept/jel-C30/ Recent publications classified by JEL Code C30 en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/26507/ 2011-09-27T00:00:00Z A Direct Monte Carlo (DMC) approach is introduced for posterior simulation in the Instrumental Variables (IV) model with one possibly endogenous regressor, multiple instruments and Gaussian errors under a flat prior. This DMC method can also be applied in an IV model (with one or multiple instruments) under an informative prior for the endogenous regressor's effect. This DMC approach can not be applied to more complex IV models or Simultaneous Equations Models with multiple endogenous regressors. An Approximate DMC (ADMC) approach is introduced that makes use of the proposed Hybrid Mixture Sampling (HMS) method, which facilitates Metropolis-Hastings (MH) or Importance Sampling from a proper marginal posterior density with highly non-elliptical shapes that tend to infinity for a point of singularity. After one has simulated from the irregularly shaped marginal distri- bution using the HMS method, one easily samples the other parameters from their conditional Student-t and Inverse-Wishart posteriors. An example illustrates the close approximation and high MH acceptance rate. While using a simple candidate distribution such as the Student-t may lead to an infinite variance of Importance Sampling weights. The choice between the IV model and a simple linear model un- der the restriction of exogeneity may be based on predictive likelihoods, for which the efficient simulation of all model parameters may be quite useful. In future work the ADMC approach may be extended to more extensive IV models such as IV with non-Gaussian errors, panel IV, or probit/logit IV. Zellner, A. Ando, T. Basturk, N. Hoogerheide, L.F. Dijk, H.K. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/13055/ 2008-08-25T00:00:00Z Several lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time series models are presented for the situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This feature refers to near-instability within dynamic models, to forecasting with near-random walk models and to clustering of several economic series in a small number of groups within a data panel. Two canonical models are used: a linear regression model with autocorrelation and a simple variance components model. Several well-known time series models like unit root and error correction models and further state space and panel data models are shown to be simple generalizations of these two canonical models for the purpose of posterior inference. A Bayesian model averaging procedure is presented in order to deal with models with substantial probability both near and at the boundary of the parameter region. Analytical, graphical and empirical results using U.S. macroeconomic data, in particular on GDP growth, are presented. Pooter, M.D. de Ravazzolo, F. Segers, R. Dijk, H.K. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/16385/ 2008-01-01T00:00:00Z Several lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time series models are presented for the situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This feature refers to near-instability within dynamic models, to forecasting with near-random walk models and to clustering of several economic series in a small number of groups within a data panel. Two canonical models are used: a linear regression model with autocorrelation and a simple variance components model. Several well-known time series models like unit root and error correction models and further state space and panel data models are shown to be simple generalizations of these two canonical models for the purpose of posterior inference. A Bayesian model averaging procedure is presented in order to deal with models with substantial probability both near and at the boundary of the parameter region. Analytical, graphical and empirical results using U.S. macroeconomic data, in particular on GDP growth, are presented. Pooter, M.D. de Ravazzolo, F. Segers, R. Dijk, H.K. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7945/ 2006-08-28T00:00:00Z Several lessons learned from a Bayesian analysis of basic economic time series models by means of the Gibbs sampling algorithm are presented. Models include the Cochrane-Orcutt model for serial correlation, the Koyck distributed lag model, the Unit Root model, the Instrumental Variables model and as Hierarchical Linear Mixed Models, the State-Space model and the Panel Data model. We discuss issues involved when drawing Bayesian inference on regression parameters and variance components, in particular when some parameter have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region, and show that one should carefully scan the shape of the posterior density function. Analytical, graphical and empirical results are used along the way. Pooter, M.D. de Segers, R. Dijk, H.K. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/13216/ 2006-07-01T00:00:00Z We propose a novel statistic to test the rank of a matrix. The rank statistic overcomes deficiencies of existing rank statistics, like: a Kronecker covariance matrix for the canonical correlation rank statistic of Anderson [Annals of Mathematical Statistics (1951), 22, 327–351] sensitivity to the ordering of the variables for the LDU rank statistic of Cragg and Donald [Journal of the American Statistical Association (1996), 91, 1301–1309] and Gill and Lewbel [Journal of the American Statistical Association (1992), 87, 766–776] a limiting distribution that is not a standard chi-squared distribution for the rank statistic of Robin and Smith [Econometric Theory (2000), 16, 151–175] usage of numerical optimization for the objective function statistic of Cragg and Donald [Journal of Econometrics (1997), 76, 223–250] and ignoring the non-negativity restriction on the singular values in Ratsimalahelo [2002, Rank test based on matrix perturbation theory. Unpublished working paper, U.F.R. Science Economique, University de Franche-Comté]. In the non-stationary cointegration case, the limiting distribution of the new rank statistic is identical to that of the Johansen trace statistic. Kleibergen, F.R. Paap, R. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7743/ 2006-03-21T00:00:00Z We present a road map for effective application of Bayesian analysis of a class of well-known dynamic econometric models by means of the Gibbs sampling algorithm. Members belonging to this class are the Cochrane-Orcutt model for serial correlation, the Koyck distributed lag model, the Unit Root model and as Hierarchical Linear Mixed Models, the State-Space model and the Panel Data model. We discuss issues involved when drawing Bayesian inference on equation parameters and variance components and show that one should carefully scan the shape of the criterion function for irregularities before applying the Gibbs sampler. Analytical, graphical and empirical results are used along the way. Pooter, M.D. de Segers, R. Dijk, H.K. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/1839/ 2004-01-01T00:00:00Z This paper presents a method for selection of the optimal simultaneous equation system from a set of nested models under the condition of a small sample. The purpose of selection is to identify a model with the best prognostic possibilities. Multivariate AIC, BIC and AICC are used as the selection criteria. The selection properties of this method are investigated by Monte-Carlo simulations. Gorobets, A. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/1681/ 2003-02-17T00:00:00Z We propose a novel statistic to test the rank of a matrix. The rank statistic overcomes deficiencies of existing rank statistics, like: necessity of a Kronecker covariance matrix for the canonical correlation rank statistic of Anderson (1951), sensitivity to the ordering of the variables for the LDU rank statistic of Cragg and Donald (1996) and Gill and Lewbel (1992), a limiting distribution that is not a standard chi-squared distribution for the rank statistic of Robin and Smith (2000) and usage of numerical optimization for the objective function statistic of Cragg and Donald (1997). The new rank statistic consists of a quadratic form of a (orthogonal) transformation of the smallest singular values of a unrestricted estimate of the matrix of interest. The quadratic form is taken with respect to the inverse of a unrestricted covariance matrix that can be estimated using a heteroscedasticity autocorrelation consistent estimator. The rank statistic has a standard chi squared limiting distribution. In case of a Kronecker covariance matrix, the rank statistic simplifies to the canonical correlation rank statistic. In the non-stationary cointegration case, the limiting distribution of the rank statistic is identical to that of the Johansen trace statistic. We apply the rank statistic to test for the rank of a matrix that governs the identification of the parameters in the stochastic discount factor model of Jagannathan and Wang (1996). The rank statistic shows that non-identification of the parameters can not be rejected. We further use the stochastic discount factor model to illustrate the validity of the limiting distribution and to conduct a power comparison. Kleibergen, F.R. Paap, R.