http://repub.eur.nl/res/concept/jel-C33/ Recent publications classified by JEL Code C33 en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/19363/ 2010-04-29T00:00:00Z The significant impact of international tourism in stimulating economic growth is especially important from a policy perspective. For this reason, the relationship between international tourism and economic growth would seem to be an interesting and topical empirical issue. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether tourism specialization is important for economic development in 159 countries over the period 1989-2008. The results from panel threshold regressions show a positive relationship between economic growth and tourism. Instrumental variable estimation of a threshold regression is used to quantify the contributions of tourism specialization to economic growth, while correcting for endogeneity between the regressors and error term. The significant impact of tourism specialization on economic growth in most regressions is robust to different specifications of tourism specialization, as well as to differences in real GDP measurement. However, the coefficients of the tourism specialization variables in the two regimes are significantly different, with a higher impact of tourism on economic growth found in the low regime. These findings do not change with changes in the threshold variables. The empirical results suggest that tourism growth does not always lead to substantial economic growth. Chang, C.L. Khamkaew, T. McAleer, M.J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/17310/ 2009-11-24T00:00:00Z The significant impact of international tourism in stimulating economic growth is especially important from a policy perspective. For this reason, the relationship between international tourism and economic growth would seem to be an interesting empirical issue. In particular, if there is a causal link between international tourism demand and economic growth, then appropriate policy implications may be developed. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether tourism specialization is important for economic development in East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, North America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa, over the period 1991-2008. The impact of the degree of tourism specialization, which is incorporated as a threshold variable, on economic growth is examined for a wide range of countries at different stages of economic development. The empirical results from threshold estimation identify two endogenous cut-off points, namely 14.97% and 17.50%. This indicates that the entire sample should be divided into three regimes. The results from panel threshold regression show that there exists a positive and significant relationship between economic growth and tourism in two regimes, the regime with the degree of tourism specialization lower than 14.97% (regime 1) and the regime with the degree of tourism specialization between 14.97% and 17.50% (regime 2). However, the magnitudes of the impact of tourism on economic growth in those two regimes are not the same, with the higher impact being found in regime 2. An insignificant relationship between economic growth and tourism is found in regime 3, in which the degree of tourism specialization is greater than 17.50%. The empirical results suggest that tourism growth does not always lead to economic growth. Chang, C.L. Khamkaew, T. McAleer, M.J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14942/ 2009-02-06T00:00:00Z We develop a new model representation for high-dimensional dynamic multi-factor models. It allows the Kalman filter and related smoothing methods to produce optimal estimates in a computationally efficient way in the presence of missing data. We discuss the model in detail together with the implementation of methods for signal extraction and parameter estimation. The computational gains of the new devices are presented based on simulated data-sets with varying numbers of missing entries Jungbacker, B. Koopman, S.J. Wel, M. van der http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14044/ 2008-08-29T00:00:00Z This paper addresses heterogeneity in determinants of economic growth in a data-driven way. Instead of defining groups of countries with different growth characteristics a priori, based on, for example, geographical location, we use a finite mixture panel model and endogenous clustering to examine cross-country differences and similarities in the effects of growth determinants. Applying this approach to an annual unbalanced panel of 59 countries in Asia, Latin and Middle America and Africa for the period 1971-2000, we can identify two groups of countries in terms of distinct growth structures. The structural differences between the country groups mainly stem from different effects of investment, openness measures and government share in the economy. Furthermore, the detected segmentation of countries does not match with conventional classifications in the literature. Basturk, N. Paap, R. Dijk, D.J.C. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/11892/ 2008-03-31T00:00:00Z This paper puts forward a data collection method to measure weekly consumer confidence at the individual level. The data thus obtained allow to statistically analyze the dynamic correlation of such a consumer confidence indicator and to draw inference on transition rates, which is not possible for currently available monthly data collected by statistical agencies on the basis of repeated cross-sections. An application of the method to various waves of data for the Netherlands shows its merits. Upon temporal aggregation we also show the resemblance of our data with those collected by Statistics Netherlands. Segers, R. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/12962/ 2008-03-01T00:00:00Z This paper considers the nature and the distribution of trade and FDI effects of a potential enlargement of the European Monetary Union (EMU) to the 10 countries that obtained EU membership in 2004. One-way and two-way error component gravity models are estimated using a data set of unbalanced panel data that combine bilateral trade flows among 29 countries and the distribution of outward FDI stocks among these countries. The results reveal a complementarity between trade and investment and a relationship between trade and exchange rate volatility that depend on the sign of bilateral trade balances. Using a simulation-based technique, we find that estimates of FDI effects of EMU range between 18.5% for Poland and 30% for Hungary. Brouwer, J. Paap, R. Viaene, J.M.A. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/13362/ 2007-11-01T00:00:00Z In this paper we consider deterministic seasonal variation in quarterly industrial production for several European countries, and we address the question whether this variation has become more similar across countries over time. Due to economic and institutional factors, one may expect convergence across business cycles. When these have similar characteristics as seasonal cycles, one may perhaps also find convergence in seasonality. To this aim, we propose a method that is based on treating the set of production series as a panel. By testing for the relevant parameter restrictions for moving window samples, we examine the hypothesis of convergence in deterministic seasonality while allowing for seasonal unit roots. Our main empirical finding is that there is no evidence for convergence in seasonality. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. Kunst, R.M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10743/ 2007-09-23T00:00:00Z This paper considers the nature and the distribution of trade and FDI effects of a potential enlargement of the European Monetary Union (EMU) to the ten countries that obtained EU membership in 2004. Intuitively, the implementation of a single currency for these countries means replacing several fluctuating currencies by a common currency. This gives rise to both “level” and “risk” effects of reduced currency movements on trade and investment. Another factor is the nature of the link between trade and FDI. This is also important not only because cross-border factor flows are becoming increasingly important, but also the international trade literature has long recognized that cross-border factor flows and trade in goods and services can be substitutes or complements. Given this background, one-way and two-way error component gravity models are estimated to examine for these theoretical expectations within a dataset of unbalanced panel data that combines bilateral trade flows among 29 countries and the distribution of outward FDI stocks among these countries (including the 10 new EU members). The data generally cover the period from 1990 to 2004. Our empirical results convincingly support: (i) a complementarity between trade and investment, (ii) a relationship between trade and exchange rate volatility that depends on the sign of bilateral trade balances, (iii) a positive effect of EU on trade and investment, and (iv) a positive effect of EMU on foreign investment. Using a simulation-based technique, we find that estimates of FDI effects of EMU range between 18.5 percent for Poland and 30 percent for Hungary. Paap, R. Viaene, J.M.A. Brouwer, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10607/ 2007-09-13T00:00:00Z The literature that tests for U-shaped relationships using panel data, such as those between pollution and income or inequality and growth, reports widely divergent (parametric and non-parametric) empirical findings. We explain why lack of identification lies at the root of these differences. To deal with this lack of identification, we propose an identification strategy that explicitly distinguishes between what can be identified on the basis of the data and what is a consequence of subjective choices due to a lack of identification. We apply our methodology to the pollution-income relationship of both CO2- and SO2-emissions. Interestingly, our approach yields estimates of both income (scale) and time (composition and/or technology) effects for these reduced-form relationships that are insensitive to the required subjective choices and consistent with theoretical predictions. Vollebergh, H.R.J. Melenberg, B. Dijkgraaf, E. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10470/ 2007-08-29T00:00:00Z To understand changes in individuals' opinions and attitudes it would be best to collect data through panels. Such panels, however, often cause irritation among respondents, resulting in low response rates and low response quality. We address whether this problem can be alleviated by designing a panel survey in an alternative way. For this purpose, we perform two field studies where we measure the effects of several panel design characteristics on response rates and response quality. These characteristics include the number of waves and the time between subsequent waves, which may either be fixed or random. Our findings suggest that response rates and response quality can be im-proved significantly by surveying at random time intervals. It is then crucial that panel members are not informed about the dates they will be surveyed, because in this case respondents are less likely to develop expectations as to when they will be surveyed again. The methodology we put forward can be used to improve the e±ciency of a panel study by carefully calibrating the studies' panel designs parameters. Seger, R. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/2170/ 2007-08-01T00:00:00Z This paper illustrates that salient features of a panel of time series of annual citations can be captured by a Bass type diffusion model. We put forward an extended version of this diffusion model, where we consider the relation between key characteristics of the diffusion process and features of the articles. More specifically, parameters measuring citations’ ceiling and the timing of peak citations are correlated with specific features of the articles like the number of pages and the number of authors. Our approach amounts to a multi-level non-linear regression for a panel of time series. We illustrate our model for citations to articles that were published in Econometrica and the Journal of Econometrics. Amongst other things, we find that more references lead to more citations and that for the Journal of Econometrics peak citations of more recent articles tend to occur later. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. Fok, D. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8077/ 2006-11-06T00:00:00Z Using a comprehensive international trade data set we investigate empirical regularities (known as Zipf’s Law or the rank-size rule) for the distribution of the interaction between countries as measured by revealed comparative advantage. Using the recently developed estimator by Gabaix and Ibragimov (2006) we find strong evidence in favor of the rank-size rule along the time, country, and sector dimension for three different levels of data aggregation. The estimated power exponents that characterize the distribution of revealed comparative advantage are stable over time but differ between countries and sectors. These differences are related empirically to country and sector characteristics, including population size, GDP, and factor intensities. Hinloopen, J. Marrewijk, J.G.M. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/11261/ 2005-10-01T00:00:00Z This paper casts doubt on empirical results based on panel estimations of an “inverted-U” relationship between per capita GDP and pollution. Using a new dataset for OECD countries on carbon dioxide emissions for the period 1960–1997, we find that the crucial assumption of homogeneity across countries is problematic. Decisively rejected are model specifications that feature even weaker homogeneity assumptions than are commonly used. Furthermore, our results challenge the existence of an overall Environmental Kuznets Curve for carbon dioxide emissions. Dijkgraaf, E. Vollebergh, H.R.J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/11142/ 2005-08-01T00:00:00Z We address the question whether sub-Saharan African countries have lower average growth rates in real GDP per capita than countries in Asia, Latin and Middle America and the Middle East. In contrast to previous studies, countries are no a priori assigned to clusters based on geographical location. Instead, we propose a latent-class panel time series model, which allows a data-based classification of countries into clusters such that within a cluster countries have the same average growth rate. Our empirical results suggest that three clusters are sufficient to describe the different growth paths. Twenty-six African countries belong to the low growth cluster, but 8 African countries show growth rates comparable with many countries in Asia, Latin and Middle America and the Middle East. Paap, R. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. Dijk, D.J.C. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/1695/ 2003-01-01T00:00:00Z In this paper we address the question whether countries on the African continent have lower average growth rates in real GDP per capita than countries in Asia and Latin America. In contrast to previous studies, we do not aggregate the data, nor do we a priori assign countries to clusters. Instead, we put forward a so-called latent class panel time series model, which allows a data-based classification of countries to clusters with growth levels that differ across the clusters. Our empirical results suggest that twenty-six African countries can be assigned to the low growth cluster, but that eleven African countries show growth levels which are comparable with many countries in Asia and Latin America. We also present results for sub-periods, which demonstrate that the relative performance of African countries has improved considerably over time. Paap, R. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. Dijk, D.J.C. van