http://repub.eur.nl/res/concept/jel-C41/ Recent publications classified by JEL Code C41 en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/39432/ 2013-03-15T00:00:00Z We aim to disentangle the relative contributions of (i) cognitive ability, and (ii) education on health and mortality using a structural equation model suggested by Conti et al. (2010). We extend their model by allowing for a duration dependent variable, and an ordinal educational variable. Data come from a Dutch cohort born around 1940, including detailed measures of cognitive ability and family background at age 12. The data are subsequently linked to the mortality register 1995-2011, such that we observe mortality between ages 55 and 75. The results suggest that the treatment effect of education (i.e. the effect of entering secondary school as opposed to leaving school after primary education) is positive and amounts to a 4 years gain in life expectancy, on average. Decomposition results suggest that the raw survival differences between educational groups are about equally split between a 'treatment effect' of education, and a 'selection effect' on basis of cognitive ability and family background. Bijwaard, G.E. Veenman, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/38235/ 2013-01-08T00:00:00Z This research provides a new way to validate and compare buy-till-you-defect [BTYD] models. These models specify a customer’s transaction and defection processes in a non-contractual setting. They are typically used to identify active customers in a com- pany’s customer base and to predict the number of purchases. Surprisingly, the literature shows that models with quite different assumptions tend to have a similar predictive performance. We show that BTYD models can also be used to predict the timing of the next purchase. Such predictions are managerially relevant as they enable managers to choose appropriate promotion strategies to improve revenues. Moreover, the predictive performance on the purchase timing can be more informative on the relative quality of BTYD models. For each of the established models, we discuss the prediction of the purchase timing. Next, we compare these models across three datasets on the predictive performance on the purchase timing as well as purchase frequency. We show that while the Pareto/NBD and its Hierarchical Bayes extension [HB] models perform the best in predicting transaction frequency, the PDO and HB models predict transaction timing more accurately. Furthermore, we find that differences in a model’s predictive performance across datasets can be explained by the correlation between behavioral parameters and the proportion of customers without repeat purchases. Korkmaz, E. Kuik, R. Fok, D. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/17016/ 2009-10-19T00:00:00Z In this empirical paper we assess how labour market transitions and out- and repeat migration of immigrants are interrelated. We estimate a multi-state multiple spell competing risks model with four states: employed, unemployed receiving benefits, out-of-the-labour market (no benefits) and abroad. We discuss one-step ahead transitions from all four states and the transition probability, including all intermediate transitions, from employment. Based on the estimated parameters we simulate the labour-migration dynamics for a synthetic cohort to derive relevant economic indicators, e.g. the probability of experiencing an unemployment spell. For the analysis we use data on recent labour immigrants to The Netherlands, which implies that all migrants are (self)-employed at the time of arrival. We find that many migrants leave the country after a period of no-income. Employment characteristics and the country of origin play an important role in explaining the dynamics. The microsimulations of synthetic cohorts reveal that many migrants experience unemployment spells, but ten years after arrival only a few are unemployed. They also indicate that the Credit Crunch will not only increase the unemployment among migrants but also departure from the country. An increase in the number of migrants from the EU accession countries will lead to more dynamics. We do not expect that the recent simplification of the entry of high income migrants will have a lasting effect, as many of those migrants leave fast. Bijwaard, G.E. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14030/ 2008-07-18T00:00:00Z In this paper we analyze the demographic factors that influence the migration dynamics of recent immigrants to The Netherlands. We show how we can allow for both permanent and temporary migrants. Based on data from Statistics Netherlands we analyze both the departure and the return from abroad for recent non-Dutch immigrants to The Netherlands. Results disclose differences among migrants by migration motive and by country of origin and lend support to our analytical framework. Combining both models, for departure and returning, provides the probability that a specific migrant ends-up in The Netherlands. It also yields a framework for predicting the migration dynamics over the life-cycle. From the obtained insight in the dynamic composition of migrants in the country important policy implications can be derived, including admission procedures for different countries and/or migration motives. Bijwaard, G.E. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10443/ 2007-07-02T00:00:00Z A duration model based on the time on Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits instead of a model based on the time till re-employment is more relevant from a cost-benefit perspective. The contribution of this paper is to extend the standard (mixed) Proportional Hazard model to account for an upper bound on the duration. We use a modified mover-stayer model to this end and discuss the interpretation of the parameters. In an empirical application we compare the method with the standard analysis of unemployment duration. We also derive the expected UI-benefit costs implied by the model for some typical unemployed individuals. Bijwaard, G.E. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/10344/ 2007-06-21T00:00:00Z In this article we propose and implement an instrumental variable estimation procedure to obtain treatment effects on duration outcomes. The method can handle the typical complications that arise with duration data of time-varying treatment and censoring. The treatment effect we define is in terms of shifting the quantiles of the outcome distribution based on the Generalized Accelerated Failure Time (GAFT) model. The GAFT model encompasses two competing approaches to duration data; the (Mixed) Proportional Hazard (MPH) model and the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model. We discuss the large sample properties of the proposed Instrumental Variable Linear Rank (IVLR), and show how we can, with one additional step, improve upon its efficiency. We discuss the empirical implementation of the estimator and apply it to the Illinois re-employment bonus experiment. Bijwaard, G.E. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9779/ 2007-04-24T00:00:00Z In this article we focus on duration data with an endogenous variable for which an instrument is available. In duration analysis the covariates and/or the effect of the covariates may vary over time. Another complication of duration data is that they are usually heavy censored. The hazard rate is invariant to censoring. Therefore, a natural choice is to model the hazard rate instead of the mean. We develop an Instrumental Variable estimation procedure for the Generalized Accelerated Failure Time (GAFT) model. The GAFT model is a duration data model that encompasses two competing approaches to such data; the (Mixed) Proportional Hazard (MPH) model and the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model. We discuss the large sample properties of this Instrumental Variable Linear Rank (IVLR) estimation based on counting process theory. We show that choosing the right weight function in the IVLR can improve its efficiency. We discuss the implementation of the estimator and apply it to the Illinois re-employment bonus experiment. Bijwaard, G.E. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9263/ 2007-03-21T00:00:00Z In this paper we analyze the demographic factors that influence the migration dynamics of recent immigrants to The Netherlands. We show how we can allow for both permanent and temporary migrants. Based on data from Statistics Netherlands we analyze both the departure and the return from abroad for recent non-Dutch immigrants to The Netherlands. Results disclose differences among migrants by migration motive and by country of origin and lend support to our analytical framework. Combining both models, for departure and returning, provides the probability that a specific migrant ends-up in The Netherlands. It also yields a framework for predicting the migration dynamics over the life-cycle. We can conclude that for a complete view of the migration dynamics it is important to allow for both permanent (stayers) migrants and temporary (movers) migrants and that return from abroad should not be neglected. Bijwaard, G.E. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7754/ 2006-05-11T00:00:00Z An issue hardly ever mentioned in the analysis of labour market transitions is that for some individuals labour market transitions occur at a very low rate. Therefore, these individuals might stay on disability benefits or in domestic care till they reach the retirement age of 65. This implies that the duration on disability and of non-participating women has a upper bound of the time till retirement. Despite the growing availability of panel data on labour market transitions many household surveys are still based on stock based sampling. In this paper estimation of a duration model in which a positive fraction of individuals reaches a maximum duration is derived for stock sampled data. A mixed proportional hazard model with a piecewise constant baseline hazard leads to a relatively simple closed-form expression in the log likelihood. Discrete unobserved heterogeneity is assumed. Non-constant entry rates into the labour market state are allowed for by assuming a yearly fluctuating rate. Bijwaard, G.E. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7148/ 2005-12-07T00:00:00Z In this paper we analyze the demographic factors that influence the return and repeated migration of immigrants. Using longitudinal data from Statistics Netherlands we track migration histories of recent immigrants to The Netherlands and analyze which migrants will stay in the country, which migrants are more prone to leave and how quick they leave. In order to identify these migrants we apply a mover-stayer duration model on the time spent in the country. We also analyze the return from abroad to The Netherlands of these migrants. Results disclose differences among migrants by migration motive and by country of origin and lend support to our analytical framework. Combining the model for departure from the country and the model for returning to the country provides the long-run stay probability of a specific migrant. It also yields a framework for simulating the life-cycle migration dynamics. The major findings are: (1) labor migrants and students are more prone to leave and migrants who come for family reasons remain in the country more often, (2) migrants from the `guestworker' countries, Turkey and Morocco, will stay in the country more often than migrants from Western countries. Bijwaard, G.E. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6613/ 2004-10-15T00:00:00Z Which signals are important in gaining attention in science? For a group of 1,371 scientific articles published in 17 demography journals in the years 1990-1992 we track their influence and discern which signals are important in receiving citations. Three types of signals are examined: the author’s reputation (as producer of the idea), the journal (as the broker of the idea), and the state of uncitedness (as an indication of the assessment by the scientific community of an idea). The empirical analysis points out that, first, the reputation of journals plays an overriding role in gaining attention in science. Second, in contrast to common wisdom, the state of uncitedness does not affect the future probability of being cited. And third, the reputation of a journal may help to get late recognition (so-called ‘sleeping beauties’) as well as generate so-called ‘flash-in-the-pans’: immediately noted articles but apparently not very influential in the long run. Dalen, H.P. van Henkens, K. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6639/ 2004-06-01T00:00:00Z In this paper we develop a structural model for job search behavior of students entering the labor market. The model includes endogenous search effort and on-the-job search. Since students usually do not start a regular job before graduation but start job search earlier, our model is non stationary even if all structural parameters are constant. The model explains the common finding that a substantial share of individuals starts working immediately upon graduation. We estimate the model using a unique data set of individuals who completed undergraduate education in the Netherlands between 1995 and 2001. Our estimation results show that a 1 percent point decrease in unemployment rate increases wage offers with 3 percent, that there are substantial returns to work experience and that individuals devote less effort to job search than optimal. Employment rates at graduation could be increased from 40 percent to 65 percent if all individuals start job search 6 month prior to graduation. Klaauw, B. van der Vuuren, A.P. van Berkhout, P. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7803/ 1997-04-24T00:00:00Z In the past decades several features of U.S. unemployment dynamics have been investigated empirically. The original focus of research was on the duration of unemployment. In later studies the cyclicality of incidence and duration, compositional effects and duration dependence of the exit rate out of unemployment have been investigated. Unlike the partial approach of previous studies this paper takes all elements of unemployment dynamics simultaneously into account. We find that cyclical fluctuations in unemployment are driven by variations in the incidence, individual exit probabilities and the composition of the inflow into unemployment. We also find negative duration dependence of the unemployment exit rate which can be attributed to employers ranking workers according to the length of their unemployment spell. Abbring, J.H. Berg, G.J. van den Ours, J.C. van