http://repub.eur.nl/res/concept/jel-C50/ Recent publications classified by JEL Code C50 en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/39433/ 2013-03-21T00:00:00Z The purpose of the paper is to discuss ten things potential users should know about the limits of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) representation for estimating and forecasting time-varying conditional correlations. The reasons given for caution about the use of DCC include the following: DCC represents the dynamic conditional covariances of the standardized residuals, and hence does not yield dynamic conditional correlations; DCC is stated rather than derived; DCC has no moments; DCC does not have testable regularity conditions; DCC yields inconsistent two step estimators; DCC has no asymptotic properties; DCC is not a special case of GARCC, which has testable regularity conditions and standard asymptotic properties; DCC is not dynamic empirically as the effect of news is typically extremely small; DCC cannot be distinguished empirically from diagonal BEKK in small systems; and DCC may be a useful filter or a diagnostic check, but it is not a model. Caporin, M. McAleer, M.J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/30685/ 2011-12-15T00:00:00Z We propose a new and simple methodology to estimate the loss function associated with experts' forecasts. Under the assumption of conditional normality of the data and the forecast distribution, the asymmetry parameter of the lin-lin and linex loss function can easily be estimated using a linear regression. This regression also provides an estimate for potential systematic bias in the forecasts of the expert. The residuals of the regression are the input for a test for the validity of the normality assumption. We apply our approach to a large data set of SKU-level sales forecasts made by experts and we compare the outcomes with those for statistical model-based forecasts of the same sales data. We find substantial evidence for asymmetry in the loss functions of the experts, with underprediction penalized more than overprediction. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. Legerstee, R. Paap, R. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6922/ 2005-09-06T00:00:00Z The first three factors resulting from a principal components analysis of term structure data are in the literature typically interpreted as driving the level, slope and curvature of the term structure. Using slight generalisations of theorems from total positivity, we present sufficient conditions under which level, slope and curvature are present. These conditions have the nice interpretation of restricting the level, slope and curvature of the correlation surface. It is proven that the Schoenmakers-Coffey correlation matrix also brings along such factors. Finally, we formulate and corroborate our conjecture that the order present in correlation matrices causes slope. Lord, R. Pelsser, A.A.J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/1675/ 2004-09-29T00:00:00Z The Lucas critique has been largely ignored in the marketing literature. We present a number of conditions under which the critique is most likely to (also) apply in marketing settings. Next, we provide some perspectives on how to diagnose and accommodate the Lucas critique, and identify various avenues for future research. Heerde, H.J. van Dekimpe, M.G. Putsis Jr, W.P. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/872/ 2003-05-02T00:00:00Z Antoon Pelsser (1968) is Head of the Asset-Liability Matching department of ING-Insurance. The ALM department advises the board on the optimal asset allocation to cover the insurance liabilities. The department is also responsible for the calculation of market values and risk measures of insurance contracts. He also holds a part-time position as Professor of Mathematical Finance at the Econometric Institute at the Erasmus University in Rotterdam. His research interests focus on pricing models for interest rate derivatives, the pricing of insurance contracts and Asset-Liability Management of insurance contracts. He has published in several academic journals including Finance and Stochastics, Journal of Derivatives, European Journal of Operational Research and European Finance Review. He is also author of the book Efficient Methods for Valuing Interest Rate Derivatives, published by Springer Verlag. Pelsser, A.A.J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/1015/ 2003-01-01T00:00:00Z We present a model that integrates the contradicting Burtian and Krackhardtian broker theories to explain effectiveness of brokering for individuals within account management organizations. Using data on a network of 55 individuals in a financial account management organization, we test how brokerage of different resource relationships and Simmelian trust relationships affect individual effectiveness. We find that although brokering in ‘specification’ processes enhances effectiveness, it harms to broker in ‘delivery’ processes. Furthermore, brokers of Simmelian trust relationships appear to face more diverse role expectations, which causes role ambiguity that reduces effectiveness. These results have implications for account management organization. Dekker, D.J. Stokman, F. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/11296/ 1994-01-01T00:00:00Z Abstract An error correction model is specified having only exact identified parameters, some of which reflect a possible departure from a cointegration model. Wald, likelihood ratio, and Lagrange multiplier statistics are derived to test for the significance of these parameters. The construction of the Wald statistic only involves linear regression, and under certain conditions the limiting distribution of the Wald statistic differs from the limiting distributions of the likelihood ratio and Lagrange multiplier statistics. A special ordering of the variables is recommended so that equal limiting distributions of the three different test statistics are obtained. The applicability of the derived testing procedures is illustrated using real demand for money, real GNP, and bond and deposit interest rates from Denmark. Kleibergen, F.R. Dijk, H.K. van