http://repub.eur.nl/res/concept/jel-D81/ Recent publications classified by JEL Code D81 en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/39958/ 2013-05-08T00:00:00Z In this paper we propose the use of preferred outcome distributions as a new method to elicit individuals’ value and probability weighting functions in decisions under risk. Extant approaches for the elicitation of these two key ingredients of individuals’ risk attitude typically rely on a long, chained sequence of lottery choices. In contrast, preferred outcome distributions can be elicited through an intuitive graphical interface, and, as we show, the information contained in two preferred outcome distributions is sufficient to identify non-parametrically both the value function and the probability weighting function in rank-dependent utility models. To illustrate our method and its advantages, we run an incentive-compatible lab study in which participants use a simple graphical interface – the Distribution Builder (Goldstein et al. 2008) – to construct their preferred outcome distributions, subject to a budget constraint. Results show that estimates of the value function are in line with previous research but that probability weighting biases are diminished, thus favoring our proposed approach based on preferred outcome distributions. Donkers, A.C.D. Lourenço, C.J.S. Dellaert, B.G.C. Goldstein, D.G. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/38218/ 2012-10-01T00:00:00Z The supposed irrelevance of historical costs for rational decision making has been the subject of much interest in the economic literature. In this paper we explore whether individual decision making under risk is affected by the cost of the supplied information. Outside of the lab, it is difficult to disentangle the effect of the cost of information itself from the effect of self-selection by individuals who tend to gain the most from this information. We thus create an environment in the lab where subjects are offered additional, useful and identical information on the state of the world across treatments. By varying the cost of information we can distinguish between selection and sunk cost effects. We find a systematic effect of sunk costs on the manner in which subjects update their beliefs on the state of the world. Subjects over-weigh costly information relatively to free information, which results in a 'push' of beliefs towards the extremes. This shift does not necessarily lead to behavior more attuned with Bayesian updating. Robalo, P. Sayag, R.S. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/34914/ 2012-09-01T00:00:00Z Experiments frequently use a random incentive system (RIS), where only tasks that are randomly selected at the end of the experiment are for real. The most common type pays every subject one out of her multiple tasks (within-subjects randomization). Recently, another type has become popular, where a subset of subjects is randomly selected, and only these subjects receive one real payment (between-subjects randomization). In earlier tests with simple, static tasks, RISs performed well. The present study investigates RISs in a more complex, dynamic choice experiment. We find that between-subjects randomization reduces risk aversion. While within-subjects randomization delivers unbiased measurements of risk aversion, it does not eliminate carry-over effects from previous tasks. Both types generate an increase in subjects' error rates. These results suggest that caution is warranted when applying RISs to more complex and dynamic tasks. Baltussen, G. Post, G.T. Assem, M.J. van den Wakker, P.P. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/37344/ 2012-08-07T00:00:00Z We investigate the hypothesis that moods can cause temporary fluctuations in risk preferences. In particular, we conduct an economic experiment that first uses standard psychological tools to manipulate individuals’ moods with film clips that induce joy, fear, or sadness and then measures the risk preferences of these individuals and compares these preferences to the preferences of a control group that did not receive a mood induction. Our experiment uses a choice-based measure of risk preferences in the win domain and differentiates among nonexistent, low, and very high financial stakes. We find evidence that sad moods induce risk aversion, although this phenomenon only occurs if the financial stakes are absent or low. We do not find evidence that moods influence risk preferences under high-stakes conditions. The observed sensitivity to variations in the financial incentives in our study reinforces the value of incentive-compatible study designs. Treffers, T. Koellinger, Ph.D. Picot, A.O. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/37161/ 2012-08-01T00:00:00Z Deciding how much to save for retirement is a difficult task that includes many uncertainties. In this paper, we use data from a representative Dutch household panel to study the impact of uncertainty regarding one's savings adequacy on retirement savings contributions and information search processes. We combine ideas from the literature in psychology and economics that provide opposing predictions regarding the impact of uncertainty on retirement savings contributions. Our results indicate that the effect of uncertainty is moderated by two factors: an individual's perceived adequacy of current savings and that individual's financial constraints. In particular, we find that uncertainty increases retirement contributions for those who believe that they save adequately; however, it hinders retirement contributions for those who believe that they save inadequately. This effect of uncertainty is further moderated by the availability of financial means: a reduction in uncertainty results in greater contributions to savings only when financial constraints are absent. We also find that uncertainty has both indirect and direct effects on savings information search. In particular, uncertainty indirectly affects savings information search because it impacts individuals' intentions to save, which consequently forces individuals to engage in purchase-oriented information search; however, uncertainty also has a direct effect because individuals engage in ongoing information search processes to directly reduce uncertainty. The implications of these findings are discussed. Schie, R.J.G. van Donkers, A.C.D. Dellaert, B.G.C. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/37781/ 2012-07-01T00:00:00Z This paper presents a general technique for comparing the concavity of different utility functions when probabilities need not be known. It generalizes: (a) Yaari's comparisons of risk aversion by not requiring identical beliefs; (b) Kreps and Porteus' information-timing preference by not requiring known probabilities; (c) Klibanoff, Marinacci, and Mukerji's smooth ambiguity aversion by not using subjective probabilities (which are not directly observable) and by not committing to (violations of) dynamic decision principles; (d) comparative smooth ambiguity aversion by not requiring identical second-order subjective probabilities. Our technique completely isolates the empirical meaning of utility. It thus sheds new light on the descriptive appropriateness of utility to model risk and ambiguity attitudes. Baillon, A. Driesen, B. Wakker, P.P. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/23265/ 2011-06-01T00:00:00Z Preference foundations give necessary and sufficient conditions for a decision model, stated directly in terms of the empirical primitive: the preference relation. For the most popular descriptive model for decision making under risk and uncertainty today, prospect theory, preference foundations have as yet been provided only for prospects taking finitely many values. In applications, however, prospects often are complex and involve infinitely many values, as in normal and lognormal distributions. This paper provides a preference foundation of prospect theory for such complex prospects. We allow for unbounded utility and only require finite additivity of the underlying probability distributions, leaving the restriction to countably additive distributions optional. As corollaries, we generalize previously obtained preference foundations for special cases of prospect theory (rank-dependent utility and Choquet expected utility) that all required countable additivity. We now obtain genuine generalizations of de Finetti’s and Savage’s finitely additive setups to unbounded utility. Kothiyal, A. Spinu, V. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/25729/ 2011-06-01T00:00:00Z Machina (2009) introduced two examples that falsify Choquet expected utility, presently one of the most popular models of ambiguity. This article shows that Machina's examples falsify not only the model mentioned, but also four other popular models for ambiguity of the literature, namely maxmin expected utility, variational preferences, α-maxmin, and the smooth model of ambiguity aversion. Thus, Machina's examples pose a challenge to most of the present field of ambiguity. Finally, the paper discusses how an alternative representation of ambiguity-averse preferences works to accommodate the Machina paradoxes and what drives the results. Baillon, A. Haridon, O. L' Placido, L. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/23269/ 2011-04-01T00:00:00Z We often deal with uncertain events for which no probabilities are known. Several normative models have been proposed. Descriptive studies have usually been qualitative, or they estimated ambiguity aversion through one single number. This paper introduces the source method, a tractable method for quantitatively analyzing uncertainty empirically. The theoretical key is the distinction between different sources of uncertainty, within which subjective (choice-based) probabilities can still be defined. Source functions convert those subjective probabilities into willingness to bet. We apply our method in an experiment, where we do not commit to particular ambiguity attitudes but let the data speak. Abdellaoui, M. Baillon, A. Placido, L. Wakker, P.P. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/22550/ 2011-02-07T00:00:00Z We present a theoretical framework which allows for the comparison of the effectiveness of tax measures, loans and funding, in supporting industry-oriented research. We estimate for each of the instruments the exact contribution required by a firm to decide on investing in R&D, given the costs and probability of success of the project, and the foreseen change in profit following successful implementation of the research results. We apply Prospect Theory to analyse the risk attitude of the firm. By comparing the contribution required, we identify the instrument which is most effective, and therefore preferred by a government. Our analysis indicates that there exists a critical value for the probability of success of the project for which the modality of the most effective instruments changes. For a probability of success smaller than the critical value, a tax measures offering support only in case of successful completion of the project is preferred. For a probability higher than the critical value, a loan is most effective. The value of the critical probability depends on the perception of risk and loss aversion of the firm involved in the research. Heide, M.J.L. de Kothiyal, A. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/23693/ 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z This paper discusses Jean-Yves Jaffray’s ideas on ambiguity and the views underlying his ideas. His models, developed 20 years ago, provide the most tractable separation of risk attitudes, ambiguity attitudes, and ambiguity beliefs available in the literature today. Wakker, P.P. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/26648/ 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z Communal violence requires a prior existence of radicalism. The chapter shows that the degree of extremism of one group can increase or decrease in response to that of the other. Lootable wealth unambiguously raises radicalism. It is not the absolute level of income but the difference between peacetime income and that of conflict periods that determines the magnitude of radicalism. Murshed, S.M. Mahmud, A.S. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/21462/ 2010-08-01T00:00:00Z Abstract: When process fairness deviates from outcome fairness, dynamic inconsistencies can arise as in nonexpected utility. Resolute choice (Machina) can restore dynamic consistency under nonexpected utility without using Strotz's precommitment. It can similarly justify dynamically consistent process fairness. Trautmann, S.T. Wakker, P.P. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/21460/ 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z ABSTRACT. In economic decisions we often have to deal with uncertain events for which no probabilities are known. Several normative models have been proposed for such decisions. Empirical studies have usually been qualitative, or they estimated ambiguity aversion through one single number. This paper introduces the source method, a tractable method for quantitatively analyzing uncertainty empirically that can capture the richness of ambiguity attitudes. The theoretical key in our method is the distinction between different sources of uncertainty, within which subjective (choice-based) probabilities can still be defined. Source functions convert those subjective probabilities into willingness to bet. We apply our method in an experiment, where we do not commit to particular ambiguity attitudes but let the data speak. Abdellaoui, M. Baillon, A. Placido, L. Wakker, P.P. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/21463/ 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z Abstract: This paper discusses Jean-Yves Jaffray’s ideas on ambiguity and the views underlying his ideas. His models, developed 20 years ago, provide the most tractable separation of risk attitudes, ambiguity attitudes, and ambiguity beliefs available in the literature today. Wakker, P.P. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/17490/ 2009-11-17T00:00:00Z Many empirical studies on intertemporal choice report preference reversals in the sense that a preference between a small reward to be received soon and a larger reward to be received later reverses as both rewards are equally delayed. Such preference reversals are commonly interpreted as contradicting constant discounting. We show that this interpretation is correct only if baseline consumption to which the outcomes are added, remains constant over time. The difficulty with measuring discounting when baseline consumption changes over time, is that delaying an outcome has two simultaneous effects: (1) due to the change in baseline consumption, it changes the increase in utility from receiving the outcome, and (2) it changes the discount factor applied to this increase in utility. In order to draw conclusions about discounting one needs to disentangle these two effects which seems impossible at first sight (Noor, 2009). Yet, in this paper we propose a way to disentangle the two effects. Gerber, A. Rohde, K.I.M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/22266/ 2009-07-01T00:00:00Z We develop a simple model that describes individuals’ self-assessments of their abilities. We assume that individuals learn about their abilities from appraisals of others and experience. Our model predicts that if communication is imperfect, then (i) appraisals of others tend to be too positive and (ii) overconfidence leading to too much activism is more likely than underconfidence leading to too much passivity. The predictions of our model are consistent with findings in the social psychological literature. Swank, O.H. Dominguez Martinez, S. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/21276/ 2009-02-01T00:00:00Z We advance the real-option-based empirical analysis of commercial real estate investment in three respects. First, we test several real option implications for real estate construction that have not been examined in the commercial real estate investment literature. In particular and in line with the predictions of real option models, we show that the effects of real interest rate and the expected demand growth on hurdle rent become more negative when the market volatility is greater. Second, we use a cointegrating vector of office employment and office stock to provide a better control of the demand for new construction than traditional indicators based on real estate prices and vacancy rates. Third, whereas the existing studies focus on the U.S. commercial real estate markets, we study two major office markets in Asia, namely Singapore and Hong Kong. We rely on the local stock market in the two city states to derive forward-looking measures of office demand growth expectations. Jennen, M.G.J. Fu, Y. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/32452/ 2009-01-14T00:00:00Z ABSTRACT This paper focuses on two areas of security concern for the European Union: terrorism and international crime. I present a model of game-theoretic interaction between a European state and a domestic dissident group, who, on occasion, may resort to acts of terrorism. Here, identity is crucial to the putative terrorist, providing the microfoundations of dissident group behaviour by solving the collective action problem. I also sketch a macromodel of drugs production in a conflict-ridden developing country, where I argue that demand-side policies of regulation may be better than policies that are aimed at eradicating supply. As far as the policy implications are concerned, first excessive deterrence against potential terrorists may backfire. Secondly, space needs to be created so that Muslim migrants are able to merge their personal identities within their adopted European homelands. Thirdly, the economic discrimination against Muslims in Europe needs to be redressed. Finally, aid to fragile drug producing states should be broad-based and poverty reducing, not just benefiting warlords. Murshed, S.M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/14045/ 2008-09-30T00:00:00Z An efficient and accurate approach is proposed for forecasting Value at Risk [VaR] and Expected Shortfall [ES] measures in a Bayesian framework. This consists of a new adaptive importance sampling method for Quantile Estimation via Rapid Mixture of t approximations [QERMit]. As a first step the optimal importance density is approximated, after which multi-step `high loss' scenarios are efficiently generated. Numerical standard errors are compared in simple illustrations and in an empirical GARCH model with Student-t errors for daily S&P 500 returns. The results indicate that the proposed QERMit approach outperforms several alternative approaches in the sense of more accurate VaR and ES estimates given the same amount of computing time, or equivalently requiring less computing time for the same numerical accuracy. Hoogerheide, L.F. Dijk, H.K. van