http://repub.eur.nl/res/concept/jel-F/ Recent publications classified by JEL Code F en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/40237/ 2013-05-01T00:00:00Z The papers in this special issue of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation cover the following topics: improving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecasts, whether forecast updates are progressive, on a constrained mixture vector autoregressive model, whether all estimators are born equal: the empirical properties of some estimators of long memory, characterising trader manipulation in a limit-order driven market, measuring bias in a term-structure model of commodity prices through the comparison of simultaneous and sequential estimation, modelling tail credit risk using transition matrices, evaluation of the DPC-based inclusive payment system in Japan for cataract operations by a new model, the matching of lead underwriters and issuing firms in the Japanese corporate bond market, stochastic life table forecasting: a time-simultaneous fan chart application, adaptive survey designs for sampling rare and clustered populations, income distribution inequality, globalization, and innovation: a general equilibrium simulation, whether exchange rates affect consumer prices: a comparative analysis for Australia, China and India, the impacts of exchange rates on Australia's domestic and outbound travel markets, clean development mechanism in China: regional distribution and prospects, design and implementation of a Web-based groundwater data management system, the impact of serial correlation on testing for structural change in binary choice model: Monte Carlo evidence, and coercive journal self citations, impact factor, journal influence and article influence. McAleer, M.J. Chan, F. Oxley, L. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/39842/ 2013-04-11T00:00:00Z We quantify the causal effect of foreign investment on total factor productivity (TFP) using a new global firm-level database. Our identification strategy relies on exploiting the difference in the amount of foreign investment by financial and industrial investors and simultaneously controlling for unobservable firm and country-sector-year factors. Using our well identified firm level estimates for the direct effect of foreign ownership on acquired firms and for the spillover effects on domestic firms, we calculate the aggregate impact of foreign investment on country-level productivity growth and find it to be very small. Fons-Rosen, C. Kalemli-Ozcan, S. Sorensen, B.E. Villegas-Sanchez, C. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/38196/ 2012-10-02T00:00:00Z This paper analytically derives the conditions under which the slope of the tax reaction function is negative in a classical tax competition model. If countries maximize welfare, we show that a negative slope (reflecting strategic substitutability) occurs under relatively mild conditions. Simulations suggest that strategic substitutability occurs under plausible parameter configurations. The strategic tax response is crucial for understanding tax competition games, as well as for assessing the welfare effects of partial tax unions (whereby a subset of countries coordinate their tax rates). Indeed, contrary to earlier findings that have assumed strategic complementarity in tax rates, we show that partial tax unions might reduce welfare under strategic substitutability. Mooij, R.A. de Vrijburg, H. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/37284/ 2012-08-01T00:00:00Z We are the first to investigate the cross-section of stock returns in the new emerging equity markets, the so-called frontier emerging markets. Our unique survivorship-bias free data set consists of more than 1,400 stocks over the period 1997 to 2008 and covers 24 of the most liquid frontier emerging markets. The major benefit of using individual stock characteristics is that it allows us to investigate whether return factors that have been documented in developed countries also exist in these markets. We document the presence of economically and statistically significant value and momentum effects, and a local size effect. Our results indicate that the value and momentum effects still exist when incorporating conservative assumptions of transaction costs. Additionally, we show that value, momentum, and local size returns in frontier markets cannot be explained by global risk factors. Groot, W. de Pang, J. Swinkels, L.A.P. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/32952/ 2012-06-23T00:00:00Z With their legal personhood, permanent capital with transferable shares, separation of ownership and management, and limited liability for both shareholders and managers, the Dutch East India Company (VOC) and subsequently the English East India Company (EIC) are generally considered a major institutional breakthrough. Our analysis of the business operations and notably the financial policy of the VOC during the company’s first two decades in existence shows that its corporate form owed less to foresight than to constant piecemeal engineering to remedy original design flaws brought to light by prolonged exposure to the strains of the Asian trade. Moreover, the crucial feature of limited liability for managers was not, as previously thought, part and parcel of that design, but emerged only after a long period of experimenting with various, sometimes very ingenious, solutions to the company’s financial bottlenecks. Gelderblom, O. Jong, A. de Jonker, J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/38142/ 2012-05-21T00:00:00Z This paper compares two competing approaches to model foreign exchange market participants' behavior: statistical learning and fitness learning. These learning mechanisms are applied to a set of predictors: chartist and fundamentalist rules. We examine which of the learning approaches is best in terms of replicating the exchange rate dynamics within the framework of a standard asset pricing model. We find that both learning methods reveal the fundamental value of the exchange rate in the equilibrium but only fitness learning creates the disconnection phenomenon and only statistical learning replicates volatility clustering. None of the mechanisms is able to produce a unit root process but both of them generate non-normally distributed returns. Grauwe, P. de Markiewicz, A. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/38974/ 2012-02-01T00:00:00Z It is widely agreed that when moving from fixed to floating exchange rates the increase in exchange rate volatility is not matched by an equivalent rise in the volatility of fundamentals. We argue and demonstrate that in inter-regime comparisons one has to account for 'missing variables' that compensate for the fundamental variables' volatility under fixed exchange rates. Previous studies have often used foreign exchange reserves, but without much success. We argue why reserves are not a reliable measure, while IMF credit support is. Our empirical analysis identifies IMF support as a crucial and significant compensating variable. Arnold, I.J.M. MacDonald, R. Vries, C.G. de http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/31777/ 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z The aim of this article is to examine the impact of increased trade on wage inequality in developing countries, and whether a higher human capital stock moderates this effect. We look at the skilled–unskilled wage differential. When better educated societies open up their economies, increased trade is likely to induce less inequality on impact because the supply of skills better matches demand. But greater international exposure also brings about technological diffusion, further raising skilled labour demand. This may raise wage inequality, in contrast to the initial egalitarian level effect of human capital. We attempt to measure these two opposing forces. We also employ a broad set of indicators to measure trade liberalization policies as well as general openness, which is an outcome, and not a policy variable. We further examine what type of education most reduces inequality. Our findings suggest that countries with a higher level of initial human capital do well on the inequality front, but human capital which accrues through the trade liberalization channel has inegalitarian effects. Our results also have implications for the speed at which trade policies are liberalized, the implication being that better educated nations should liberalize faster. Mamoon, D. Murshed, S.M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/37925/ 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z While in previous literature foreign currency exposure is estimated to be surprisingly small and insignificant, we question in this paper the rationality assumption and show that the traditional use of realized exchange rate changes to approximate unexpected currency shocks leads to a strong underestimation of the influence that exchange rates play in determining firm valuations. In light of a unique survey data base of individual exchange rate expectations, we distinguish between ‘realized’ and ‘unexpected’ foreign currency movements and find that half of our sample of 935 U.S. firms with real operations in foreign countries is significantly exposed to ‘unexpected’ exchange rate movements. In line with previously reported results, foreign exchange risk exposure is found to become increasingly perceptible when the return horizon is lengthened. The difference between the exposure to ‘realized’ versus ‘unexpected’ exchange rate movements is however decreasing when lengthening the horizon, suggesting that the more market participants disagree about the future path of currency values, the less investors and/or managers are likely to use the publicly available forecasts in their pricing and hedging decisions Verschoor, W.F.C. Jongen, R. Muller, A. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/26710/ 2011-10-24T00:00:00Z In this paper we examine two hypotheses concerning emigration. The first hypothesis is that emigration is positively correlated with wage differentials. The second hypothesis concerns a positive correlation between emigration and higher education in the sending country (the so-called brain gain hypothesis). We analyze unique time series data for Suriname for 1972-2009, for which we fit error correction models to disentangle short-run from long-run effects. We document moderate support for the first hypothesis, but we find strong support for the brain drain (and not brain gain) hypothesis. We conclude with implications of our findings for Suriname. Dulam, T. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/26088/ 2011-09-01T00:00:00Z We use panel estimates of regional Phillips curves of the hybrid New Keynesian type to study price level convergence within the US and EMU. Regional inflation rates tend to eliminate PPP deviations in both monetary unions, with average half-lives around 3 1/2 years. The start of EMU did not greatly affect PPP reversion in the euro area. Where changes in nominal exchange rates accounted for the bulk of the adjustment process before 1999, this role was largely taken over by regional inflation differences since. Notwithstanding clear evidence of forward-lookingness in the US, inflation persistence is substantial in both monetary unions. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/26087/ 2011-08-31T00:00:00Z We decompose capital flows--both debt and equity--into public and private components and study their relationship with productivity growth. This exercise reveals that international capital flows are mainly shaped by government decisions and sovereign to sovereign transactions. Specifically, we show: (i) international capital flows net of government debt are positively correlated with growth and allocated according to the neoclassical predictions; (ii) international capital flows net of official aid flows, which are mostly accounted as debt, are also positively correlated with productivity growth consistent with the predictions of the neoclassical model; (iii) public debt flows are negatively correlated with growth only if government debt is financed by another sovereign and not by private lenders. Our results show that the failure to consider official flows as the main driver of uphill flows and global imbalances is an important shortcoming of the recent literature. Alfaro, L. Kalemli-Ozcan, S. Volosovych, V. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/26642/ 2011-06-01T00:00:00Z This paper explores the relation between countries' pattern of trade specialization and long-term economic growth. It shows that countries specializing in the export of natural resource based products only fail to grow if they do not succeed in diversifying their economies and export structure. This conclusion follows from an empirical investigation that has three innovative features. First, it uses a dynamic panel data analysis. Secondly, it employs disaggregated trade data sets to elaborate different measures of trade specialization that distinguish between unprocessed and manufactured natural resource products and are informative about the countries' trade diversification experience, their link to world demand trends and involvement in intra-industry trade. The final innovative aspect of the paper relates to our empirical findings: it is only specialization in unprocessed natural resource products that slows down economic growth, as it impedes the emergence of more dynamic patterns of trade specialization. Murshed, S.M. Serino, L.A. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/23268/ 2011-05-10T00:00:00Z Despite the importance of trust in economic relations, people often engage in behavior that may violate their interaction partner’s trust. Given that transgressions in economic relations often result in distributive harm for the victim (i.e. loss of economic resources), a common approach in these relations consists of the transgressor providing a financial compensation to the victim: if a customer has complaints about a product, he is reimbursed; when a company is being sued, it often tries to make a financial settlement with the victims. Strangely enough, the high prevalence of financial compensations as a restorative response contrasts sharply with how little is known about their effectiveness. Can financial compensations actually increase trust again and what are the factors that determine their effectiveness? By taking an experimental approach, this dissertation aims to provide some first, much needed empirical answers regarding the effectiveness of financial compensations in restoring trust. In this venture, it was not only studied how aspects of the compensation itself (e.g. size) determine their effectiveness, but also how specific characteristics of the violation, the victim and the transgressor impact victims’ reactions to a compensation. The findings of this dissertation show that even in economic relations, where violations have a clear, quantifiable distributive harm, the process of trust repair is not simply determined by the material, financial value of a compensation. Rather, this dissertation reveals how immaterial aspects such as intent in the violation, whether a compensation was imposed or voluntarily provided or whether or not an apology accompanied the compensation, are all crucial in determining the actual value that victims attach to a financial compensation. Desmet, P.T.M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/32458/ 2011-04-13T00:00:00Z We identify the benefits and costs of financial openness in terms of currency crises based on a novel quantification of the systemic impact of currency (financial) crises. We find that systemic currency crises mainly exist regionally, and that financial openness helps diminish the probability of a currency crisis after controlling for their systemic impact. To clarify further the effect of financial openness, we decompose it into the various types of capital inflows. We find that the reduction of the probability of a currency crisis depends on the type of capital and on the region. Finally yet importantly, we find that monetary policy geared towards price stability, through a flexible inflation target that takes into account systemic impact, reduces the probability of a currency crisis. Garita, G.A. Zhou, C. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/22952/ 2011-04-01T00:00:00Z Over the last two decades, management studies on sustainability have grown considerably, including a recent surge of research on climate change. However, environmental problems have not been resolved, and most of the top management journals remain focused on the firm, not the system. This presents both a paradox and an opportunity. The year 2010 was the hottest year on record, making it the warmest decade since 1880. In certain places (like Australia and the Arctic), the impacts of climate change are already apparent. In the future, as CO2 continues to rise, we can expect more extreme events like floods, droughts, fires, and melting ice caps. This has profound implications for the way we manage and organize our societies. Before we can manage something, we have to make sense of the situation. In a complex environment, people need to pay attention to subtle cues, overcome barriers, and collectively develop ‘sensemaking’ across organizations. If people do not pay sufficient attention, they will encounter a ‘predictable surprise’ – a crisis situation that could be avoided but isn’t because of existing social and economic structures. This lecture considers how to make better sense of climate change. Professor Whiteman argues that it essential for managers and academics to take a more systemic approach and collaborate with the natural sciences and local people. She ends with management lessons for the 21st Century. Whiteman, G.M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/22643/ 2011-03-10T00:00:00Z The past two decades have witnessed an exponential growth of research on corporate governance around the world and on the role of the ownership concentration more specifically. In line with a longer tradition of ownership studies in U.S. context, most corporate governance researchers have commonly taken a classical agency theoretical view of ownership concentration. The research presented in this dissertation show that classical view of ownership seems overly crude. I provide a more fine-grained understanding about the role of ownership in different contexts; one that takes into account the subtly different formal and informal institutional that can be found around the world on the one hand, and that distinguish between the identity of concentrated owners on the other. I show, first, that a crucial factor with respect to the ownership concentration – firm strategy and performance relationships involve owner identity: i.e. who owns a firm matters significantly for that firm’s objectives, strategies, and performance. Second, I contribute to emerging institution-based view of corporate governance by expanding its empirical domain and testing empirically the interaction between formal and informal institutions. Essen, M. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/22283/ 2011-02-01T00:00:00Z Recent studies of purchasing power parity (PPP) use panel tests that fail to take into account heterogeneity in the speed of mean reversion across real exchange rates. In contrast to several other severe restrictions of panel models and tests of PPP, the assumption of homogeneous mean reversion is still widely used and its consequences are virtually unexplored. This paper analyzes the properties of homogeneous and heterogeneous panel unit root testing methodologies. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we uncover important adverse properties of the panel approach that relies on homogeneous estimation and testing. More specifically, power functions are low and assume irregular shapes. Furthermore, homogeneous estimates of the mean reversion parameters exhibit potentially large biases. These properties can lead to misleading inferences on the validity of PPP. Our findings highlight the importance of allowing for heterogeneous estimation when testing for a unit root in panels of real exchange rates. Koedijk, C.G. Tims, B. Dijk, M.A. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/22338/ 2011-01-20T00:00:00Z Empirical evidence suggests that sectoral export growth decreases exporters' survival probability, whereas this is not true for non-exporters. Models with firm heterogeneity in total factor productivity (TFP) predict the opposite. To solve this puzzle, we develop a two{factor framework where firms differ in factor intensities. Thus, export growth increases competition for the factor used intensively by exporters, eliminating some of them, while non-exporters benefit. Interacting heterogeneity in factor shares with heterogeneity in TFP we show that factor market competition reduces the growth in average TFP brought about by trade liberalization... Emami Namini, J. Facchini, G. Lopez, R.A. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/22342/ 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z Using long time series for sovereign bond markets of fifteen industrialized economies from 1875 to 2009, I find that financial market integration by the end of the 20th century was higher than in earlier periods and exhibited a J-shaped trend with a trough in the 1920s. The main reason for the higher financial integration seen today is the recent extensive globalization. Around the turn of the 20th century, countries frequently drifted apart. Conversely, in recent years, the bond markets of most countries have moved together. Both policy variables and the global market environment play a role in explaining the time variation in integration, while 'unexplained' changes in the overall level of country risk are also empirically important. My methodology, based on principal components analysis, is immune to outliers and accounts for global and country-specific shocks and, hence, can capture trends in financial integration more accurately than standard techniques such as simple correlations. Volosovych, V.