http://repub.eur.nl/res/concept/jel-F15/ Recent publications classified by JEL Code F15 en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/39842/ 2013-04-11T00:00:00Z We quantify the causal effect of foreign investment on total factor productivity (TFP) using a new global firm-level database. Our identification strategy relies on exploiting the difference in the amount of foreign investment by financial and industrial investors and simultaneously controlling for unobservable firm and country-sector-year factors. Using our well identified firm level estimates for the direct effect of foreign ownership on acquired firms and for the spillover effects on domestic firms, we calculate the aggregate impact of foreign investment on country-level productivity growth and find it to be very small. Fons-Rosen, C. Kalemli-Ozcan, S. Sorensen, B.E. Villegas-Sanchez, C. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/31777/ 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z The aim of this article is to examine the impact of increased trade on wage inequality in developing countries, and whether a higher human capital stock moderates this effect. We look at the skilled–unskilled wage differential. When better educated societies open up their economies, increased trade is likely to induce less inequality on impact because the supply of skills better matches demand. But greater international exposure also brings about technological diffusion, further raising skilled labour demand. This may raise wage inequality, in contrast to the initial egalitarian level effect of human capital. We attempt to measure these two opposing forces. We also employ a broad set of indicators to measure trade liberalization policies as well as general openness, which is an outcome, and not a policy variable. We further examine what type of education most reduces inequality. Our findings suggest that countries with a higher level of initial human capital do well on the inequality front, but human capital which accrues through the trade liberalization channel has inegalitarian effects. Our results also have implications for the speed at which trade policies are liberalized, the implication being that better educated nations should liberalize faster. Mamoon, D. Murshed, S.M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/20109/ 2010-03-10T00:00:00Z Abstract We examine whether greater inter-state trade, democracy and reduced military spending lower belligerence between India and Pakistan, beginning with a theoretical model covering the opportunity costs of conflict in terms of trade losses and security spending, as well as the costs of making concessions to rivals. Conflict between the two nations is best understood in a multivariate framework where variables such as economic performance, integration with rest of the world, bilateral trade, military expenditure, democracy orientation and population are simultaneously considered. Our empirical investigation based on time series econometrics from 1950 to 2005 suggests that reduced bilateral trade, greater military expenditure, less development expenditure, lower levels of democracy, lower growth rates and less general trade openness are all conflict enhancing. Globalization, or a greater openness to international trade with the rest of the world, is the most significant driver of a liberal peace, rather than a common democratic orientation. Mamoon, D. Murshed, S.M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/17667/ 2010-01-04T00:00:00Z European economic integration is commonly believed to be incomplete, and that further reforms are needed. In this context, the union of U.S. states is considered the benchmark of complete economic integration and is often the basis for comparison regarding the extent of E.U economic integration. Yet, with low trade barriers and with productive factors at least notionally mobile across E.U. countries, is the belief that U.S. states are more integrated than E.U. member states correct? To address this question, this paper first develops three theoretical predictions about the distribution of output and factors that would arise among members of a fully integrated economic area in which goods, capital and labor are freely mobile and policies are harmonized. These theoretical predictions are then empirically tested using data on the output and factor stocks of 14 E.U. member states and the 51 U.S. states (includes District of Columbia) for the period 1965 to 2000. The empirical results convincingly support each theoretical prediction. Hence, contrary to popular belief, the extent of E.U. economic integration is not statistically different from that among U.S. states. Bowen, H.P. Munandar, M.I.S.H. Viaene, J.M.A. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/12980/ 2008-05-01T00:00:00Z Most FDI takes place between the developed countries, which suggests that the market-seeking motive is important for understanding FDI. However, given the stylized fact that trade barriers (e.g. transportation costs and financial barriers) have declined over the past 20 years, models that aim to explain market-seeking FDI tend to predict a decline in FDI. Neary (2008) offers two explanations for this puzzle: (1) the export platform motive (where firms gain access to an integrated market by investing in one of the “integrated” countries); (2) Neary’s (2007) GOLE model, which explains cross-border mergers and acquisitions (this model is of interest since most FDI comes in the form of M&As). By using a gravity framework, where we also deal with the “zero gravity problem”, we confirm the predictions of the GOLE model. Brakman, S. Garita, G.A. Garretsen, J.H. Marrewijk, J.G.M. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/32186/ 2008-04-01T00:00:00Z Most FDI takes place between the developed countries, which suggests that the market-seeking motive is important for understanding FDI. However, given the stylized fact that trade barriers (e.g. transportation costs and financial barriers) have declined over the past 20 years, models that aim to explain market-seeking FDI tend to predict a decline in FDI. Neary (2008) offers two explanations for this puzzle: (1) the export platform motive (where firms gain access to an integrated market by investing in one of the “integrated” countries); (2) Neary’s (2007) GOLE model, which explains cross-border mergers and acquisitions (this model is of interest since most FDI comes in the form of M&As). By using a gravity framework, where we also deal with the “zero gravity problem”, we confirm the predictions of the GOLE model. Brakman, S. Garita, G.A. Garretsen, J.H. Marrewijk, J.G.M. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/12981/ 2008-01-01T00:00:00Z It is widely believed that globalization, through increased factor mobility, will exert a downward pressure on tax rates and hence on public expenditures. Recent advances in the new economic geography (NEG) literature have, however, shown that such a ‘race to the bottom’ is not inevitable. Even with perfect factor mobility, a positive tax differential between core and peripheral countries can persist as long as the agglomeration rent, that is associated with being located in the agglomeration, exceeds the tax gap. In these NEG models the relevance of government spending as a determinant of agglomeration is, however, unduly neglected. The focus is on tax rates only and on the stability of core-periphery equilibria. Using a NEG model where the provision of public goods is allowed to influence the location choices of economic agents and starting intially from a spreading instead of a core-periphery equilibrium, we show that governments can affect the spatial equilibrium through their provision of public goods. Our main finding is that the introduction of public goods fosters agglomeration in the sense that it makes the spreading equilibrium unstable. Brakman, S. Garretsen, J.H. Marrewijk, J.G.M. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/18748/ 2007-07-01T00:00:00Z The authors examine whether greater inter-state trade, democracy and reduced military spending lower belligerence between India and Pakistan. They begin with theoretical models covering the opportunity costs of conflict in terms of trade losses and security spending, as well as the costs of making concessions to rivals. Conflict between the two nations can be best understood in a multivariate framework where variables such as economic performance, integration with rest of the world, bilateral trade, military expenditure, population are simultaneously taken into account. The authors' empirical investigation based on time series econometrics for the period 1950-2005 with causality tests suggests that reduced trade, greater military expenditure, less development expenditure, lower levels of democracy, lower growth rates and less general trade openness are all conflict enhancing. Moreover, there is reverse causality between bilateral trade, militarization and conflict; low levels of bilateral trade and high militarization are conflict enhancing, equally conflict also reduces bilateral trade and raises militarization. The authors also run forecasting simulations on 6 different VECM models. Globalization or a greater openness to international trade in general are more significant drivers of a liberal peace, rather than a common democratic political orientation suggested by the pure form of the democratic peace. Murshed, S.M. Mamoon, D. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/18751/ 2007-06-01T00:00:00Z The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of increased trade on wage inequality in developing countries, and whether a higher human capital stock moderates this effect. We look at the skilled-unskilled wage differential. High initial endowments of human capital imply a more egalitarian society. When more equal societies open up their economies further, increased trade is likely to induce less inequality on impact because the supply of skills better matches demand. But greater international exposure also brings about technological diffusion, further raising skilled labour demand. This may raise wage inequality, in contrast to the initial egalitarian level effect of human capital. We attempt to measure these two opposing forces. We also employ a broad set of openness indicators to measure trade liberalization policies as well as general openness, which is an outcome, and not a policy variable. We further examine what type of education most reduces inequality. Our findings suggest that countries with a higher level of initial human capital do well on the inequality front, but human capital which accrues through the trade liberalization channel has inegalitarian effects. One explanation could be that governments in developing countries invest more in higher education at the expense of primary education in order to gain immediate benefits from globalization; thus becoming prone to wage inequality after increased international trade. Our results also have implications for the speed at which trade policies are liberalized, the implication being that better educated nations should liberalize faster. Mamoon, D. Murshed, S.M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6781/ 2005-07-01T00:00:00Z This paper is concerned with rules of origin when intermediate goods are differentiated. An analytical model emphasizes trade patterns and the relative importance of trade in intermediates given trade preferences. Econometric evidence based on intra-OECD trade in motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts points to a systematic impact of trade costs and FTA membership, following from rules of origin and reduction in border measures, on the role of intermediates and their relative importance in production and trade. These results are consistent with a conceptual framework involving rules-base trade costs and two-way trade in differentiated intermediate goods and final goods. François, J.F. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6581/ 2005-06-01T00:00:00Z We first demonstrate that, within a fully integrated economy (FIE) in which there is free mobility of goods and factors, each FIE member's share of total FIE output will equal its shares of the total FIE stock of each productive factor. This equal-share property implies that, if economic policies are also largely harmonized across FIE members, the growth in any member's output and factor shares can be viewed as a random event. This then implies that the limit distribution of output and factor shares across FIE members will conform to a rank-share distribution that exhibits Zipf's law. This result means that growth models of FIE members must embody the assumption of homogeneity of random growth processes across members. Given its importance for our understanding of underlying growth mechanisms for such members, we empirically examine for evidence of Zipf's law for the distribution of output and factor shares of two (presumably) integrated economies: the 51 US states and 14 countries of the European Union (EU). Our findings support Zipf's law for US states and indicate convergence towards this law among EU countries. Bowen, H.P. Munandar, M.I.S.H. Viaene, J.M.A. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6582/ 2005-05-01T00:00:00Z We show that in a fully integrated economy, in which there is free mobility of goods and factors, each member’s share of total output will equal its shares of total stocks of productive factors (i.e., physical and human capital). We label this result the equal-share relationship. This relationship also holds in the presence of technological differences or costs of factor mobility among members if outputs or inputs are properly measured to reflect such differences or costs. The equal-share relationship is the limiting distribution of output and factors among members of a fully integrated economy, and it constraints the set of policies that can affect each member’s relative growth within an integrated economy. We empirically examine for the equal-share relationship for alternative economic groups (i.e., US states, EU countries, Developing Countries and a World comprising 55 countries). Our findings indicate that the equal-share relationship holds strongly for US states, holds weakly for EU countries, but does not hold for Developing Countries or the World. Bowen, H.P. Munandar, M.I.S.H. Viaene, J.M.A. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6607/ 2004-11-30T00:00:00Z The paper examines the effects of Russia joining the WTO taking into account energy sector reform and the impact of a future Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the enlarged EU and Russia. The paper uses Computable General Equilibrium Modelling techniques for quantifying the different possible scenarios. The scenarios include a standard assessment of the removal of tariff barriers including agriculture, services and removal of non-tariffbarriers. The results suggest that a potential FTA would be beneficial for Russia only if it would incorporate not only reduction in industrial tariffs but also in agriculture and liberalisation in services. Manchin, M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6614/ 2004-07-21T00:00:00Z This paper studies the degree of integration of China's domestic market and investigates the determinants of inter-provincial trade barriers under the rubric endogenous trade policy theory. I rely on industry-level trade flows extracted from provincial input-output tables to develop a model that analyzes the magnitude and evolution of Chinese provinces' engagement in domestic trade by computing all-inclusive indicators of trade barriers. Results underline that over the 1990s, not only was China's domestic market fragmentation along provincial borders great, but it also has become more severe at least between 1992 and 1997. The investigation of province-level and industry-level trade barriers confirms the relevance of applying the framework of endogenous protection to explain the level of impediments to trade between Chinese provinces. Findings emphasize that provinces' domestic trade protection pursues a dual objective of socioeconomic stability preservation and fiscal revenues maximization. Poncet, S. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/863/ 2003-09-12T00:00:00Z This paper studies the price e?ects of shocks to the degree of competition. It is motivated by initiatives to enhance competition in services in the European Union. The paper shows that a higher degree of competition in the nontradable goods sector may have adverse implications for international price competitiveness. It highlights four channels through which enhanced competition in the non-tradable goods sector a?ects the general price level in a large, open economy (lower monopoly rents, lower import prices, higher demand for real money balances, higher wages) and assesses their relative importance algebraically. The conclusions are supportive of the Single Market and point at possible implications for monetary policy. Cavelaars, P.A.D. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6809/ 2002-06-04T00:00:00Z This paper studies the connection between trade and growth in the context of a partial and inconsistent liberalization process in a specific Eastern European country in transition towards market economy, namely, the Republic of Belarus. The analysis of the country trade patterns during the USSR period and the years since independence revealed that unlike its close neighbors (the Baltic States and Poland) Belarus did not succeed in changing the commodity or the geographical structure of its trade. It is almost a good representation of reality to say that Belarus trades with Russia. The assessment of the rationale for the closer integration with Russia and the impact of this process on Belarus growth led us to the conclusion that the integration in the form of a non-exclusive Free Trade Area and within the framework of a wider set of international connections rather than the move towards a Customs Union (and a Union State) with Russia would be a more optimal policy for Belarus. This conclusion is supported by the results of country-specific growth regressions and of a counterfactual "free trade experiment" via a small CGE model. This paper is partially based on the work by the Authors for the World Bank Global Development Network (GDN) Research Project "Explaining Growth in the CIS Countries". Bakanova, M. Vinhas de Souza, L. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/13024/ 2002-01-01T00:00:00Z With the completion of EMU, tax competition and, more in general, locational competition is high on the EU policy agenda. In contrast to the standard neo-classical reasoning, recent advances in the theory of trade and location have shown that tax competition does not necessarily lead to a "race to the bottom". In these recent discussions the relevance of government spending as an instrument for locational competition is unduly neglected. We therefore introduce a more elaborate government sector in a geographical economics model by analyzing government spending and government production. By changing the relative size, direction or efficiency of the production of public goods, our simulation results show that governments can change the equilibrium between agglomerating and spreading forces. In addition, we show analytically that the introduction of public goods fosters agglomeration. Ultimately, our paper shows that by restricting attention to taxes, one ignores that government spending also determines the attractiveness of a country as a location for the mobile factors of production. Brakman, S. Garretsen, J.H. Marrewijk, J.G.M. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6947/ 2000-07-31T00:00:00Z In this paper we demonstrate that intra-industry trade (or FDI) between identical countries could produce the observed deterioration in the relative wages of unskilled workers. This involves a model of North-North integration through either increased trade flows or increased MNE- based production. Our motivation in this regard is arguments to the effect that trade cannot be responsible for the observed labour market trends because trade with developing countries is quantitatively too small to have significant labour market effects. We also introduce a relatively unexploited class of model that possesses attractive properties with respect to the explicit incorporation of firm-theoretic considerations in trade models. François, J.F. Nelson, D.R. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6949/ 2000-07-31T00:00:00Z We develop a Heckscher-Ohlin-Ramsey model, combining dual techniques with classic geometric techniques from trade theory. This framework is used to explore the long-run general equilibrium effects of regional integration (preferential trade agreements). Emphasis is placed on positive mechanics related to adjustment in the capital stock, long-run changes in the pattern in trade, and the implications for changes in long-run (steady-state) national income. The importance of relative country size and the dynamic implications for third countries are also addressed. François, J.F. Rombout, M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/7708/ 1999-12-22T00:00:00Z We study the optimal trade policy against a foreign oligopoly with endogenous quality. We show that, under the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) clause, a uniform tariff policy is always welfare improving over the free trade equilibrium. However, a nonuniform tariff policy is always desirable on welfare grounds. First best policy typically consists of setting a subsidy on the low-quality product and a tax on high-quality one. Another example of such a nonuniform tariff policy is a Regional Trade Agreement (RTA). We show that, if a welfare improvement is possible through a RTA, it is always with the low- quality producing country that it has to be achieved. Moraga-Gonzalez, J.L. Viaene, J.M.A.