http://repub.eur.nl/res/concept/jel-G20/ Recent publications classified by JEL Code G20 en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/38216/ 2012-12-12T00:00:00Z We assess the effect of aggregate stock market illiquidity on U.S. Treasury bond risk premia. We find that the stock market illiquidity variable adds to the well established Cochrane-Piazzesi and Ludvigson-Ng factors. It explains 10%, 9%, 7%, and 7% of the one-year-ahead variation in the excess return for two-, three-, four-, and ve-year bonds respectively and increases the adjusted R2 by 3-6% across all maturities over Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) and Ludvigson and Ng (2009) factors. The effects are highly statistically and economically significant both in and out of sample. We find that our result is robust to and is not driven by information from open interest in the futures market, long-run inflation expectations, dispersion in beliefs, and funding liquidity. We argue that stock market illiquidity is a timely variable that is related to " right-to-quality" episodes and might contain information about expected future business conditions through funding liquidity and investment channels. Bouwman, K.E. Sojli, E. Tham, W.W. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/31778/ 2012-02-01T00:00:00Z This paper investigates the importance of speed for technical trading rule performance for three highly liquid ETFs listed on NASDAQ over the period January 6, 2009 up to September 30, 2009. In addition we examine the characteristics of market activity over the day and within subperiods corresponding to hours, minutes, and seconds. Speed has a clear impact on the return of technical trading rules. For strategies that yield a positive return when they experience no delay, a delay of 200 milliseconds is enough to lower performance significantly. On low volatility days this is already the case for delays larger than 50 milliseconds. In addition, the importance of speed for trading rule performance increases over time. Market activity follows a U-shape over the day with a spike at 10:00AM due to macroeconomic announcements and is characterized by periodic activity within the day, hour, minute, and second. Scholtus, M.L. Dijk, D.J.C. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/20041/ 2010-12-01T00:00:00Z We investigate whether loan growth affects the riskiness of individual banks in 16 major countries. Using Bankscope data from more than 16,000 individual banks during 1997-2007, we test three hypotheses on the relation between abnormal loan growth and asset risk, bank profitability, and bank solvency. We find that loan growth leads to an increase in loan loss provisions during the subsequent three years, to a decrease in relative interest income, and to lower capital ratios. Further analyses show that loan growth also has a negative impact on the risk-adjusted interest income. These results suggest that loan growth represents an important driver of the riskiness of banks. Foos, D. Norden, L. Weber, M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/21081/ 2010-10-01T00:00:00Z Information on borrower quality is a fundamental issue in debt contracting, corporate and consumer finance, and financial intermediation. We investigate the link between account activity and information production on borrower risk. Based on a unique data set, we find that credit line usage, limit violations, and cash inflows exhibit abnormal patterns approximately 12 months before default events. Measures of account activity substantially improve default predictions and are especially helpful for monitoring small businesses and individuals. Furthermore, early warning indications result in higher loan spreads, and in a higher likelihood of limit reductions and complete write-offs. Our study shows that account activity provides a real-time window into the borrower's cash flows, thus explaining why banks have an advantage in providing certain types of debt financing. Norden, L. Weber, M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/23436/ 2009-03-01T00:00:00Z We analyze a dynamic microstructure model in which a dealer market (DM) and a crossing network (CN) interact for three informational settings. A key result is that coexistence of trading systems generates systematic patterns in order flow, which depend on the degree of transparency. Further, we study overall welfare, measured by the gains from trade of all agents, and compare it with the maximum overall welfare. The discrepancy between both measures is attributable to two inefficiencies. Due to these inefficiencies, introducing a CN next to a DM, as well as increasing the transparency level, not necessarily produces greater overall welfare. Degryse, H. Achter, M.A. van Wuyts, G. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/8747/ 2007-02-14T00:00:00Z The stability of the financial system at higher loss levels is either characterized by asymptotic dependence or asymptotic independence. If asymptotically independent, the dependency, when present, eventually dies out completely at the more extreme quantiles, as in case of the multivariate normal distribution. Given that financial service firms' equity returns depend linearly on the risk drivers, we show that the marginals' distributions maximum domain of attraction determines the type of systemic (in-)stability. A scale for the amount of dependency at high loss lovels is designed. This permits a characterization of systemic risk inherent to different financial network structures. The theory also suggests the functional form of the economically relevant limit copulas. Geluk, J.L. Haan, L.F.M. de Vries, C.G. de http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/20294/ 2007-01-01T00:00:00Z Although the academic interest in ethical mutual fund performance has developed steadily, the evidence to date is mainly sample-specific. To tackle this critique, new research should extend to unexplored countries. Using this as a motivation, we examine the performance and risk sensitivities of Canadian ethical mutual funds vis-à-vis their conventional peers. In order to overcome the methodological deficiencies most prior papers suffered from, we use performance measurement approaches in the spirit of Carhart (1997, Journal of Finance 52(1): 57–82) and Ferson and Schadt (1996, Journal of Finance 51(2): 425–461). In doing so, we investigate the aggregated performance and investment style of ethical and conventional mutual funds and allow for time variation in the funds’ systematic risk. Our␣Canadian evidence supports the conjecture that any␣performance differential between ethical mutual funds and their conventional peers is statistically insignificant. Bauer, R. Derwall, J.M.M. Otten, R. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6626/ 2005-06-06T00:00:00Z The euro area has faced a high number of monetary and policy changes in the recent past as a consequence of the European integration process and, naturally, these developments have important implications for portfolio diversification and asset pricing. Therefore, this paper concentrates on the performance of a specific asset pricing model: the Fama and French threefactor model. Griffin (2002) shows that the Fama and French factors are country specific for the U.S., the U.K, Canada, and Japan. We apply the same methodology to the euro area countries and find that even in this very integrated area the domestic three-factor model outperforms the euro area three-factor model. However, the relative performance of the euro area wide model is increasing, especially for countries with a high number of listed stocks. This could be interpreted as evidence of a higher level of equity market integration caused by lower investment barriers and a changing point of view of institutional investors. Furthermore, we extend the methodology and also test an industry-specific three-factor model. Our findings suggest that lower pricing can be acquired using an industry-specific model relative to the euro area three-factor model. Moerman, G.A. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6801/ 2002-07-09T00:00:00Z Anytime an individual makes a cash payment, s/he needs to think about the amount to be paid, the coins and notes which are available, and the amount of change. For central banks and retail stores, for example, it is of interest to un- derstand how this individual choice process works. The literature of currency use concerns primarily theory, in the sense that, given certain assumptions, one can de- rive an optimal denomination range. There is no empirical study which deals with the actual use of coins and notes, given a specific denomination range. In this paper we therefore present such a study, which is based on two rather unique data sets. We use descriptive statistics and a sophisticated model, which is designed for this specific purpose, to see whether two basic premises of the theories on optimal ranges are valid. In contrast to the widely accepted assumptions, we find that individuals appear not to pay efficiently and that they are also not indifferent to the use of coins and notes. In other words, some notes and coins are used less often than expected given the payment situation. Kippers, J. Nierop, J.E.M. van Paap, R. Franses, Ph.H.B.F.