http://repub.eur.nl/res/concept/jel-G3/ Recent publications classified by JEL Code G3 en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/38750/ 2013-01-17T00:00:00Z This paper features an analysis of the relationship between the S&P 500 Index and the VIX using daily data obtained from both the CBOE website and SIRCA (The Securities Industry Research Centre of the Asia Pacific). We explore the relationship between the S&P 500 daily continuously compounded return series and a similar series for the VIX in terms of a long sample drawn from the CBOE running from 1990 to mid 2011 and a set of returns from SIRCA's TRTH datasets running from March 2005 to-date. We divide this shorter sample, which captures the behaviour of the new VIX, introduced in 2003, into four roughly equivalent sub-samples which permit the exploration of the impact of the Global Financial Crisis. We apply to our data sets a series of non-parametric based tests utilising entropy based metrics. These suggest that the PDFs and CDFs of these two return distributions change shape in various subsample periods. The entropy and MI statistics suggest that the degree of uncertainty attached to these distributions changes through time and using the S&P 500 return as the dependent variable, that the amount of information obtained from the VIX also changes with time and reaches a relative maximum in the most recent period from 2011 to 2012. The entropy based non-parametric tests of the equivalence of the two distributions and their symmetry all strongly reject their respective nulls. The results suggest that parametric techniques do not adequately capture the complexities displayed in the behaviour of these series. This has practical implications for hedging utilising derivatives written on the VIX, which will be the focus of a subsequent study. Allen, D.E. McAleer, M.J. Powell, R.J. Singh, A.K. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/38230/ 2013-01-08T00:00:00Z This paper examines the size effects of volatility spillovers for firm performance and exchange rates with asymmetry in the Taiwan tourism industry. The analysis is based on two conditional multivariate models, BEKK-AGARCH and VARMA-AGARCH, in the volatility specification. Daily data from 1 July 2008 to 29 June 2012 for 999 firms are used, which covers the Global Financial Crisis. The empirical findings indicate that there are size effects on volatility spillovers from the exchange rate to firm performance. Specifically, the risk for firm size has different effects from the three leading tourism sources to Taiwan, namely USA, Japan, and China. Furthermore, all the return series reveal quite high volatility spillovers (at over sixty percent) with a one-period lag. The empirical results show a negative correlation between exchange rate returns and stock returns. However, the asymmetric effect of the shock is ambiguous, owing to conflicts in the significance and signs of the asymmetry effect in the two estimated multivariate GARCH models. The empirical findings provide financial managers with a better understanding of how firm size is related to financial performance, risk and portfolio management strategies that can be used in practice. Chang, C.L. Hsu, H-K. McAleer, M.J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/38233/ 2013-01-08T00:00:00Z The Basel II Accord requires that banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models to measure Value-at-Risk (VaR). The risk estimates of these models are used to determine capital requirements and associated capital costs of ADIs, depending in part on the number of previous violations, whereby realised losses exceed the estimated VaR. In this paper we define risk management in terms of choosing from a variety of risk models, and discuss the selection of optimal risk models. A new approach to model selection for predicting VaR is proposed, consisting of combining alternative risk models, and we compare conservative and aggressive strategies for choosing between VaR models. We then examine how different risk management strategies performed during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. These issues are illustrated using Standard and Poor’s 500 Composite Index. McAleer, M.J. Jimenez-Martin, J-A. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/38225/ 2012-12-31T00:00:00Z Jaskowski, M. McAleer, M.J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/37470/ 2012-10-23T00:00:00Z We introduce a Mixed-Frequency Factor Model (MFFM) to estimate vast dimensional covari- ance matrices of asset returns. The MFFM uses high-frequency (intraday) data to estimate factor (co)variances and idiosyncratic risk and low-frequency (daily) data to estimate the factor loadings. We propose the use of highly liquid assets such as exchange traded funds (ETFs) as factors. Prices for these contracts are observed essentially free of microstructure noise at high frequencies, allowing us to obtain precise estimates of the factor covariances. The factor loadings instead are estimated from daily data to avoid biases due to market microstructure effects such as the relative illiquidity of individual stocks and non-synchronicity between the returns on factors and stocks. Our theoretical, simulation and empirical results illustrate that the performance of the MFFM is excellent, both compared to conventional factor models based solely on low-frequency data and to popular realized covariance estimators based on high-frequency data. Bannouh, K. Martens, M.P.E. Oomen, R.C.A. Dijk, D.J.C. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/37301/ 2012-09-25T00:00:00Z We study risk perception and actual decision-making by the corporate elite, where we consider CEOs, CFOs and non-executives. We collect data for many members of the elite for Netherlands-based companies using the vignettes method. We find that CEOs are more risk tolerant but do not act accordingly by demanding higher returns. CFOs and non-executives are found to be more risk-averse; but, interestingly, only the non-executives demand higher returns more than CEOs do. Differences in demanded returns across CEOs and CFOs are found to be negligible. When decision makers mature and get more experienced, they tend to ask higher returns on investment. For all members of the corporate elite it holds that overconfidence is consistently related to higher risk tolerance, whereas those degrees of overconfidence are similar. Groot, E.A. de Renes, S. Segers, R. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/32870/ 2012-09-01T00:00:00Z This paper investigates the selling process of firms acquired by private equity versus strategic buyers. In a single regression setup we show that selling firms choose between formal auctions, controlled sales and private negotiations to fit their firm and deal characteristics including profitability, R&D, deal initiation and type of the eventual acquirer (private equity or strategic buyer). At the same time, a regression model determining the buyer type shows that private equity buyers pursue targets that have more tangible assets, lower market-to-book ratios and lower research and development expenses relative to targets bought by strategic buyers. To reflect possible interdependencies between these two choices and their impact on takeover premium, as a last step, we estimate a simultaneous model that includes the selling mechanism choice, buyer type and premium equations. Our results show that the primary decision within the whole selling process is the target firm's decision concerning whether to sell the firm in an auction, controlled sale or negotiation which then affects the buyer type. These two decisions seem to be optimal as then they do not impact premium. Roosenboom, P.G.J. Paap, R. Teunissen, T. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/31355/ 2012-06-01T00:00:00Z This paper investigates how underwriters set the IPO firm’s fair value, an ex-ante estimate of the market value, using a unique dataset of 228 reports from French underwriters. These reports are issued before the IPO shares start trading on the stock market and detail how underwriters determined fair value. We document that underwriters often employ multiples valuation, dividend discount models and discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to determine fair value but that all of these valuation methods suffer from a positive bias with respect to equilibrium market value.We also analyze how this fair value estimate is subsequently used as a basis for IPO pricing. We report that underwriters deliberately discount the fair value estimate when setting the preliminary offer price. Part of the intentional price discount can be recovered by higher price updates. We find that, controlling for other factors such as investor demand, part of underpricing stems from this intentional price discount. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Roosenboom, P.G.J. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/37697/ 2012-06-01T00:00:00Z The average U.S. firm has less leverage than one would expect based on the trade-off between tax shields and bankruptcy costs. We focus on firms' financial flexibility and examine whether firms preserve debt capacity to reduce investment distortions in the future. We find that firms with high unused debt capacity invest more in future years than do firms with low unused debt capacity. Furthermore, firms that are reluctant to borrow in unconstrained periods are more likely to issue debt in periods in which access to capital markets is more constrained. Jong, A. de Verbeek, M.J.C.M. Verwijmeren, P. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/32160/ 2012-01-27T00:00:00Z We use earnings forecasts from a cross-sectional model to proxy for cash flow expectations and estimate the implied cost of capital (ICC) for a large sample of firms over 1968-2008. The earnings forecasts generated by the cross-sectional model are superior to analysts' forecasts in terms of coverage, forecast bias, and earnings response coefficient. Moreover, the model-based ICC is a more reliable proxy for expected returns than the ICC based on analysts' forecasts. We present evidence on the cross-sectional relation between firm-level characteristics and ex ante expected returns using the model-based ICC. Hou, K. Dijk, M.A. van Zhang, Y. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/37834/ 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z Abstract. Managers have the choice to take the firm private themselves in a management buyout or to seek private equity backing. We argue that managers seek private equity backing in case they are more constrained to finance the deal themselves. We confirm the hypothesis using a sample of UK public-to-private transactions over the period 1997–2003. A post going private performance analysis reveals that both management buyouts and private equity backed deals outperform their industry peers. However, private equity backed deals outperform their peers already before the deal takes place whereas management buyouts improve performance afterwards. This suggests a passive role for private equity firms in going private transactions. Fidrmuc, J.P. Palandri, A. Roosenboom, P.G.J. Dijk, D.J.C. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/31627/ 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z Abstract. We examine the impact of CEOs’ familiarity with business segments on their divestiture decisions. We find that CEOs are less likely to divest assets from familiar segments, when compared to non-familiar segments. Our evidence suggests that CEOs favor their familiar segments, because they are more informed about these segments relative to non-familiar segments. It does not support CEO selection and managerial entrenchment as main explanations for the familiarity effect. Even though divestitures from familiar segments are least likely to occur, these divestitures generate the highest abnormal announcement returns. Ang, J. Jong, A. de Poel, A.M. van der http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/31636/ 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z Abstract. Managerial hubris can lead to overpayment for acquisitions for two non-mutually exclusive reasons: (i) the target’s stand-alone value under the bidder’s control is overestimated or (ii) synergies from the combined entity are overestimated. We provide a unique test of the first source of overpayment by isolating that portion of the target’s ex-ante value that is attributable to a founder CEO, and relating this to bidder abnormal returns. We document evidence of a significant founder CEO value effect in target firms and show that this founder effect is negatively correlated with bidder gains. This finding is not due to founder CEOs using their bargaining power to appropriate a larger share of the total acquisition gains. Rather, our findings are consistent with hubris-infected bidders underestimating the value of the founder’s firm-specific human capital (which is likely to undergo a significant decline after the acquisition), and consequently, overestimating the value of the target as a stand-alone firm under the bidder’s control. Nagarajan, N.J. Schlingemann, F.P. Poel, A.M. van der Yalin, M.F. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/26894/ 2011-10-28T00:00:00Z Critics claim that short-term profit orientation and high deal price strategies of private equity (PE) firms can negatively affect the ability of management buyouts to initiate and sustain entrepreneurial management. This study investigates this claim by comparing effects of majority PE backed and other buy-outs at different levels of financial leverage on post buy-out increases in entrepreneurial management. We propose that PE can be used as an organizational refocusing device that simultaneously increases entrepreneurial and administrative management. We find that majority PE-backed buy-outs significantly increase entrepreneurial management practices. Furthermore, the increased financial leverage positively affects administrative management in management buy-outs. However, the effect of high financial leverage is larger for majority PE-backed buy-outs. These results support the notion that PE firms help buy-out companies develop ambidextrous organizational change: i.e. simultaneously develop entrepreneurial and administrative management practices. The findings have important implications for practitioners and policy makers. Bruining, J. Verwaal, E. Wright, D.M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/26505/ 2011-09-01T00:00:00Z Patton and Timmermann (2011, 'Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds', Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, forthcoming) propose a set of useful tests for forecast rationality or optimality under squared error loss, including an easily implemented test based on a regression that only involves (long-horizon and short-horizon) forecasts and no observations on the target variable. We propose an extension, a simulation-based procedure that takes into account the presence of errors in parameter estimates. This procedure can also be applied in the field of 'backtesting' models for Value-at-Risk. Applications to simple AR and ARCH time series models show that its power in detecting certain misspecifications is larger than the power of well-known tests for correct Unconditional Coverage and Conditional Coverage. Hoogerheide, L.F. Ravazzolo, F. Dijk, H.K. van http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/25610/ 2011-07-01T00:00:00Z In McAleer et al. (2010b), a robust risk management strategy to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) was proposed under the Basel II Accord by selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models. The robust forecast was based on the median of the point VaR forecasts of a set of conditional volatility models. In this paper we provide further evidence on the suitability of the median as a GFC-robust strategy by using an additional set of new extreme value forecasting models and by extending the sample period for comparison. These extreme value models include DPOT and Conditional EVT. Such models might be expected to be useful in explaining financial data, especially in the presence of extreme shocks that arise during a GFC. Our empirical results confirm that the median remains GFC-robust even in the presence of these new extreme value models. This is illustrated by using the S&P500 index before, during and after the 2008-09 GFC. We investigate the performance of a variety of single and combined VaR forecasts in terms of daily capital requirements and violation penalties under the Basel II Accord, as well as other criteria, including several tests for independence of the violations. The strategy based on the median, or more generally, on combined forecasts of single models, is straightforward to incorporate into existing computer software packages that are used by banks and other financial institutions. Santos, P.A. Jimenez-Martin, J-A. McAleer, M.J. Perez-Amaral, T. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/25611/ 2011-07-01T00:00:00Z This paper estimates the effects of short and long haul volatility (or risk) in monthly Japanese tourist arrivals to Taiwan and New Zealand, respectively. In order to model appropriately the volatilities of international tourist arrivals, we use symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models that are commonly used in financial econometrics, namely the GARCH (1,1), GJR (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models. The data series are for the period January 1997 to December 2007. The volatility estimates for the monthly growth in Japanese tourists to New Zealand and Taiwan are different, and indicate that the former has an asymmetric effect on risk from positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude, while the latter has no asymmetric effect. Moreover, there is a leverage effect in the monthly growth rate of Japanese tourists to New Zealand, whereby negative shocks increase volatility but positive shocks of similar magnitude decrease volatility. These empirical results seem to be similar to a wide range of financial stock market prices, so that the models used in financial economics, and hence the issues related to risk and leverage effects, are also applicable to international tourism flows. Chang, C.L. McAleer, M.J. Lim, C.H. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/25614/ 2011-07-01T00:00:00Z It is well known that the Basel II Accord requires banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) to communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models, whether individually or as combinations, to measure Value-at-Risk (VaR). The risk estimates of these models are used to determine capital requirements and associated capital costs of ADIs, depending in part on the number of previous violations, whereby realised losses exceed the estimated VaR. McAleer et al. (2009) proposed a new approach to model selection for predicting VaR, consisting of combining alternative risk models, and comparing conservative and aggressive strategies for choosing between VaR models. This paper addresses the question of risk management of risk, namely VaR of VIX futures prices, and extends the approaches given in McAleer et al. (2009) and Chang et al. (2011) to examine how different risk management strategies performed during the 2008-09 global financial crisis (GFC). The empirical results suggest that an aggressive strategy of choosing the Supremum of single model forecasts, as compared with Bayesian and non-Bayesian combinations of models, is preferred to other alternatives, and is robust during the GFC. However, this strategy implies relatively high numbers of violations and accumulated losses, which are admissible under the Basel II Accord. Casarin, R. Chang, C.L. Jimenez-Martin, J-A. McAleer, M.J. Perez-Amaral, T. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/25723/ 2011-07-01T00:00:00Z Using the upper echelons perspective together with corporate governance and strategic renewal literature, this paper investigates how top managers' corporate governance orientation influences a firm's strategic renewal trajectories over time. Through both a qualitative analysis (1907-2004) and a quantitative analysis (1959-2004), we investigate this under-researched question within the context of a large incumbent firm: Royal Dutch Shell plc. Our results indicate that top managers having an Anglo-Saxon corporate governance orientation are more likely to pursue exploitative and external-growth strategic renewal trajectories, while those having a Rhine corporate governance orientation are more likely to pursue exploratory and internal-growth strategic renewal trajectories. We also found a positive moderating effect of the proportion of shareholders from the Anglo-Saxon countries on exploitative and external-growth strategic renewal trajectories. Our findings indicate that top managers' corporate governance orientation can be an important antecedent of strategic renewal and of organizational ambidexterity, both of which influence corporate longevity. Kwee, Z. Bosch, F.A.J. van den Volberda, H.W. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/34944/ 2011-04-01T00:00:00Z Abstract. The corporate governance debate mainly deals with the effectiveness of techniques to protect shareholders from the controllers’ misbehaviour. This article takes a different approach. Focussing on self-dealing, it shows that effective strategies to protect investors from expropriation differ from country to country. However, some may be more efficient than others. The inefficiency of an effective discipline of self-dealing stems from the constraints it imposes on the discretion of controlling managers and shareholders. This article shows that both the US litigation-based model and the UK governance-based model are effective against expropriation, but their efficiency can be improved. In light of this, this article recommends restricting the influence of non-controlling shareholders to the selection of a minority of independent directors, whose task should be limited to monitoring and validating self-dealing. These findings can be extended from self-dealing to similar conflicts of interest that may lead to expropriation of shareholders, and to their regulation in other jurisdictions. Pacces, A.M.