http://repub.eur.nl/res/concept/jel-O13/ Recent publications classified by JEL Code O13 en http://repub.eur.nl/static-eur/img/logo.png http://repub.eur.nl http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/26642/ 2011-06-01T00:00:00Z This paper explores the relation between countries' pattern of trade specialization and long-term economic growth. It shows that countries specializing in the export of natural resource based products only fail to grow if they do not succeed in diversifying their economies and export structure. This conclusion follows from an empirical investigation that has three innovative features. First, it uses a dynamic panel data analysis. Secondly, it employs disaggregated trade data sets to elaborate different measures of trade specialization that distinguish between unprocessed and manufactured natural resource products and are informative about the countries' trade diversification experience, their link to world demand trends and involvement in intra-industry trade. The final innovative aspect of the paper relates to our empirical findings: it is only specialization in unprocessed natural resource products that slows down economic growth, as it impedes the emergence of more dynamic patterns of trade specialization. Murshed, S.M. Serino, L.A. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/18739/ 2008-02-01T00:00:00Z In this paper I investigate the competitiveness explanation of the resource curse: to what extent slow growth in primary producer countries is related to the properties of this pattern of trade specialization. To address this hypothesis that has not been adequately explored in the literature, I estimate cross-country and system GMM panel data regressions, using a sample of 49 developed and developing countries. The empirical analysis explores most hypothetical explanations of the resource curse using a sensitivity approach and alternative trade specialization measures, elaborated with long-term trade disaggregated data, what constitutes an innovation regarding previous empirical work. The main findings of the paper are: i- that primary specialization hampers growth by reducing intraindustry trade and the dynamism of export demand, and ii- that it is the specialization in natural resource products with no or limited processing the one constraining economic growth, but not the specialization in industrialized resource products. Both facts support the competitiveness hypothesis of the resource curse and suggest that this growth paradox is linked to the limitations of resource abundant countries to diversify their tradable sector, and engage in the trade of products that facilitate the achievement of static and dynamic economies of scale. Serino, L.A. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/32342/ 2008-01-01T00:00:00Z ABSTRACT: I review the relationship between natural resource endowment type and economic growth in developing countries. Certain types of natural resources such as oil and minerals tend to exhibit concentrated production and revenue patterns, while revenue flows from other resources such as agriculture are more diffused. Most developing countries that export products from the first group are prone to growth failure in recent times. The most important channels are political economy mechanisms, where there are negative relationships between natural resource rents and institutional development. An explicit model of growth collapse with micro-foundations in rent-seeking contests that have increasing returns in rent seeking outlays is presented. Murshed, S.M. http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/6988/ 2005-10-14T00:00:00Z Due to its non-storable nature, electricity is a commodity with probably the most volatile spot prices, exemplified by occasional spikes. Appropriate pricing, portfolio, and risk management models have to incorporate these characteristics, and the spikes in particular. We investigate the nature of power spikes in a number of different markets. We test what time-series model is best able to capture the dynamics of these disruptive spot prices. We use regime-switching models to infer whether the price spikes should be treated as abnormal and independent deviations from the ‘normal’ price dynamics or whether they form an integral part of the price process. We test the time-series models on day-ahead markets in Europe and the US. We find that regimeswitch models are better able to capture the market dynamics than a GARCH(1,1) or Poisson jump model. We also find clear differences between the markets and attribute part of the differences to the share of hydro-power in the total supply stack: hydro-power serves as an indirect means to store electricity, which has a dampening effect on spikes. Jong, C.M. de http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/12956/ 2000-01-01T00:00:00Z We derive the equilibrium joint distribution of exchange rate and commodity price in a two-country rational expectations model. The correlation between commodity price and exchange rate appears crucial for the stability of commodity markets. This result arises from the common practice to quote commodity prices in consuming countries' currency, which subjects producing countries to the currency risk. Welfare results of commodity price stabilization are obtained and facilitate the interpretation of the position taken by industrialized countries long opposed to international commodity agreements. We apply our model to the Philippines and investigate the potential effects of the International Sugar Agreement (ISA) on the various conditional volatilities of the model. We conclude on the relative ineffectiveness of these agreements in limiting fluctuations of sugar prices. Kofman, P. Viaene, J.M.A.